For short-term climate prediction, which one of the following events, detected in the last decade, is associated with occasional weak monsoon rains in the India subcontinent?

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), specifically El Niño phases, are well established drivers of interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon and are associated with reduced/weak monsoon rainfall in India. Textbooks note an inverse relationship: when the rising limb (low pressure) shifts eastward in El Niño years, monsoon rainfall over India tends to decrease and many prominent droughts have coincided with El Niño events [1]. ENSO is the coupled ocean–atmosphere phenomenon (warm eastern Pacific SSTs with corresponding pressure anomalies) that links Pacific conditions to wider monsoon impacts, though the relationship is not perfect due to other influences like the IOD [3]. Hence option 3 is correct.

Sources

1. [1] Physical Geography by PMF IAS, Manjunath Thamminidi, PMF IAS (1st ed.) > Chapter 29: El Nino, La Nina & El Nino Modoki > 29.3. Impact of El Nino on Indian Monsoons > p. 415
2. [2] Physical Geography by PMF IAS, Manjunath Thamminidi, PMF IAS (1st ed.) > Chapter 29: El Nino, La Nina & El Nino Modoki > El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) > p. 413
3. [3] https://www.unescap.org/sites/default/d8files/event-documents/ESCAP_2023_Rajashree_ISRO_27_Sep_2023.pdf