Deepening India-Russia Strategic Economic Partnership: UPSC Current Affairs Story Arc

Overview

This arc tracks the rapid transformation of the India-Russia relationship from a traditional defense-heavy partnership into a massive, energy-led economic engine. Spurred by geopolitical shifts since early 2022, India has become a top buyer of Russian crude, leading to record-breaking trade volumes. However, this has created a lopsided trade balance where Indian imports dwarf exports. To address this, the two nations have set an ambitious $100 billion trade target for 2030. Key diplomatic maneuvers, including EAM Jaishankar’s 2025 Moscow visit and President Putin’s 23rd Annual Summit in New Delhi, aim to diversify trade into agriculture, technology, and connectivity through corridors like the INSTC and the Northern Sea Route.

How This Story Evolved

Ministers set $100bn trade target (Item 6) → EAM visits Russia to finalize frameworks (Item 5) → Putin visits India for Summit, signing agreements (Item 12) → Russia cements status as top oil supplier (Item 1) → Bilateral trade hits record high (Seed)

1. 2025-08-20: India, Russia to boost trade, develop transport corridors
   More details

   UPSC Angle: India and Russia aim to increase annual trade to US$100 billion.

   Key Facts:

   • India and Russia aim to boost annual trade to US$100 billion over the next five years
   • Russia agreed to open its consumer market to Indian agricultural exports
   • Denis Manturov announced that Russia and India are to jointly target development of the Northern Sea Route and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC)
2. 2025-08-21: EAM's Visit to Russia Focuses on Trade, Connectivity, and Counter-Terrorism
   More details

   UPSC Angle: EAM's visit to Russia focused on trade, connectivity, and counter-terrorism.

   Key Facts:

   • S. Jaishankar visited Moscow from August 19-21, 2025.
   • Co-chaired the 26th Session of the India-Russia Inter-Governmental Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific, Technological and Cultural Cooperation (IRIGC-TEC).
   • Revised bilateral trade target of USD 100 billion by 2030.
   • Terms of reference for India-Eurasian Economic Union FTA were finalised.
   • S. Jaishankar visited Russia from August 19-21, 2025.
   • The 26th Session of the India-Russia Inter-Governmental Commission (IRIGC-TEC) was co-chaired by EAM.
   • The goal is to achieve a bilateral trade target of USD 100 billion by 2030.
   • India conveyed a zero-tolerance policy against terrorism.
   • S. Jaishankar visited Moscow for the 26th Session of the India-Russia Inter-Governmental Commission
   • Met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on August 21
   • Discussed bilateral issues and international cooperation
   • Highlighted challenges posed by tariff and non-tariff trade barriers
   • Called for "early conclusion" of a Free Trade Agreement among India and the countries of the Eurasian region
   • India faces 50% tariffs from the Trump administration, including 25% for importing Russian oil
3. 2025-12-05: India-Russia Bilateral Relations
   More details

   UPSC Angle: India-Russia Annual Summit held in New Delhi.

   Key Facts:

   • Vladimir Putin: Russian President
   • 23rd India–Russia Annual Summit: New Delhi
   • “Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership”: Since 2010
   • Strategic Partnership: Since 2000
   • Sakhalin: Example of Russian project with Indian companies' upstream stakes
   • Signed 16 MoUs and agreements between India and Russia.
   • Cooperation areas: migration and mobility, health and medical sciences, food safety, maritime cooperation, shipping in polar waters, fertilizers and industrial collaboration, customs procedures, and trade facilitation.
   • Programme for Development of Strategic Areas of India-Russia Economic Cooperation till 2030 adopted.
   • Target: USD 100 billion bilateral trade by 2030.
   • Opening of two Indian Consulates General in Yekaterinburg and Kazan.
   • Free 30-day e-Tourist Visa and a 30-day Group Tourist Visa for Russian citizens will soon be introduced.
   • Joint venture in Urea manufacturing in Russia by Indian companies to be developed.
   • Cooperation on training India's seafarers for operations in polar waters.
   • Bilateral agreement between Department of Posts, Ministry of Communications of the Republic of India and JSC «Russian Post».
   • 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit: Held in New Delhi
   • Strategic Partnership: "Special and Privileged" since 2010
   • Key Areas of Cooperation: Defence, S&T, Space, Nuclear Energy, Connectivity
   • India-Russia Inter-Governmental Commission (IRIGC): Anchors relations
   • BRICS, SCO, G20, UN: Forums for strategic convergence
   • Trade heavily skewed in Russia's favour, Rupee-rouble settlement, frozen funds and banking connectivity remain unresolved
   • Vladimir Putin visited India for the 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit.
   • India and Russia enjoy a "Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership" since 2010.
   • Bilateral trade reached USD 68.7 billion in FY 2024–25.
   • Trade target of USD 100 billion by 2030.
   • Investment target of USD 50 billion mutual investments in energy, petrochemicals, banking, infrastructure, and pharma.
   • Long-term military-technical cooperation programme 2021–31.
   • Russia is a key collaborator for Gaganyaan astronaut training and space-tech sharing.
   • Programme for the Development of Strategic Areas of India - Russia Economic Cooperation till 2030 (Programme 2030).
4. 2025-12-29: India's Dependence on Russian Oil
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   UPSC Angle: Russia is now India's largest crude oil supplier since FY23.

   Key Facts:

   • Largest contributor to India's crude basket: Russia (starting FY 2022–23)
   • Russia's crude oil share in 2021–22: Less than 2%
   • Russia's crude oil share in 2022–23: 21.6%
   • Russia's crude oil share in 2023–24: 35.9%
   • Russia's crude oil share in 2024–25: 35.8%
   • Current share of India's crude imports from Russia: around one-third
5. 2026-02-07: India-Russia Energy Trade
   More details

   UPSC Angle: India-Russia energy trade increased significantly after February 2022.

   Key Facts:

   • India-Russia energy trade before Feb 2022: 2% of India's energy imports
   • India-Russia energy trade now: More than 32% of India's energy imports
   • Bilateral trade between India and Russia in FY 2024-25: $68.7 billion
   • Russian oil imports: $63.8 billion
   • India's exports to Russia: $4.9 billion
6. 2026-02-19: Russia Bypasses Sanctions with INSTC and BRICS Digital Payments
   More details

   UPSC Angle: Russia bypasses sanctions with INSTC and BRICS digital payments.

   Key Facts:

   • Russia is developing the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the BRICS Bridge digital payment system to bypass Western sanctions.
   • The INSTC is a 7,200-kilometer trade route.
   • The INSTC reduces shipping time by 40% and transit time from 45 days to under 25 days.
   • BRICS Bridge is a blockchain-based payment system connecting central bank digital currencies.

Genesis

Trigger

The fundamental shift began post-February 2022 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which led to Western sanctions on Russian oil and Moscow offering discounted crude to India.

Why Now

The sudden surge in trade volume (hitting $68.7 billion) necessitated a formal framework to address the trade deficit and institutionalize energy security, leading to the 26th IRIGC-TEC session in August 2025.

Historical Context

India and Russia have shared a 'Strategic Partnership' since 2000, upgraded to a 'Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership' in 2010, traditionally rooted in defense (like the S-400 deal) and nuclear energy (Kudankulam).

Key Turning Points

1. [2025-08-20] Setting of the $100 billion annual trade target by 2030

   It shifted the focus from transactional oil buys to a long-term economic roadmap.

   Before: Trade was sporadic and oil-heavy. After: Structural focus on agricultural exports and transport corridors.

2. [2025-12-05] 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit in New Delhi

   Resumed high-level personal diplomacy between PM Modi and President Putin after a period of global volatility.

   Before: Uncertainty over the frequency of summits. After: Reaffirmed the 'Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership'.

Key Actors and Institutions

Key Institutions

• India-Russia Inter-Governmental Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific, Technological and Cultural Cooperation (IRIGC-TEC)
• Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS)
• Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU)
• International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC)

Key Concepts

Strategic Autonomy

A nation's ability to pursue its national interests and adopt its own foreign policy without being constrained by other states.

Current Fact: India maintained energy ties with Russia despite external pressure, with oil imports reaching $63.8 billion in FY 2024-25.

International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC)

A 7,200-km multi-modal network of ship, rail, and road routes for moving freight between India, Iran, Azerbaijan, Russia, Central Asia, and Europe.

Current Fact: Russia and India jointly targeted the development of INSTC and the Northern Sea Route in August 2025.

Trade Deficit

An economic measure of a negative balance of trade in which a country's imports exceed its exports.

Current Fact: India's exports to Russia were only $4.9 billion compared to $63.8 billion in oil imports in FY 2024-25.

What Happens Next

Current Status

As of February 2026, Russia remains India's top oil supplier (35.8% share), and the two countries have finalized the terms of reference for a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).

Likely Next

Operationalization of the Chennai-Vladivostok Eastern Maritime Corridor and concrete steps toward the $100 billion trade target by 2030.

Wildcards

Secondary sanctions from Western nations on Indian entities dealing with Russia, or a significant shift in global oil prices that could diminish the 'discount' advantage.

Why UPSC Cares

Syllabus Topics

• Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests
• Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests
• Energy Security

Essay Angles

• Navigating a Multipolar World: India's Strategic Autonomy
• Energy Security as the New Pillar of Diplomacy
• The Geopolitics of Connectivity: From INSTC to the Northern Sea Route

Prelims Likely: Yes

Mains Likely: Yes

Trend Signal: rising

Exam Intelligence

Previous Year Question Connections

• Connecting India to Europe via Iran and Central Asia through INSTC. — The arc directly updates the status of INSTC as a joint development target between India and Russia.
• Purpose of PM's visit to Russia regarding trade and strategic partnership. — Shows the long-standing nature of trade-focused visits, now evolved into the $100bn target.

Prelims Angles

• Russia's exact share in India's crude basket (35.8% in 2024-25).
• Member countries and route of the INSTC.
• Definition and components of the IRIGC-TEC.
• Difference between Strategic Partnership (2000) and Special & Privileged Strategic Partnership (2010).

Mains Preparation

Sample Question: Discuss the shifting dynamics of the India-Russia relationship from a defense-centric to an energy-led partnership. How does the massive trade imbalance pose a challenge to this 'Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership'?

Answer Structure: Intro: Define the current trade record ($68.7bn) and the $100bn target. Body 1: Evolution of ties (Defense -> Energy). Body 2: Benefits of discounted oil and energy security. Body 3: Challenges of trade imbalance ($4.9bn exports vs $63.8bn imports) and payment mechanisms. Way Forward: Connectivity (INSTC), EAEU FTA, and agricultural diversification.

Essay Topic: Strategic Autonomy in a Fragmented Global Order: India’s Balancing Act

Textbook Connections

Key Takeaway

India has leveraged the global energy shift to secure its energy needs from Russia, but the partnership now faces the critical challenge of correcting a $58 billion trade deficit through diversification and connectivity.

All Events in This Story (6 items)

1. 2025-08-20 [International Relations] — India, Russia to boost trade, develop transport corridors
   Following talks in Moscow, Russia and India aim to increase annual trade by nearly 50% over the next five years, targeting US$100 billion. Russia has agreed to open its consumer market to Indian agricultural exports. Russia and India are to jointly target development of the Northern Sea Route and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).
   More details

   UPSC Angle: India and Russia aim to increase annual trade to US$100 billion.

   Key Facts:

   • India and Russia aim to boost annual trade to US$100 billion over the next five years
   • Russia agreed to open its consumer market to Indian agricultural exports
   • Denis Manturov announced that Russia and India are to jointly target development of the Northern Sea Route and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC)
2. 2025-08-21 [International Relations] — EAM's Visit to Russia Focuses on Trade, Connectivity, and Counter-Terrorism
   External Affairs Minister (EAM) S. Jaishankar visited Russia to co-chair the 26th Session of the India-Russia Inter-Governmental Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific, Technological and Cultural Cooperation (IRIGC-TEC). Discussions covered expanding bilateral trade, addressing trade barriers, enhancing Indian exports, and strengthening connectivity initiatives like the International North-South Transport Corridor. India conveyed its resolve to combat terrorism and defend against cross-border terrorism.
   More details

   UPSC Angle: EAM's visit to Russia focused on trade, connectivity, and counter-terrorism.

   Key Facts:

   • S. Jaishankar visited Moscow from August 19-21, 2025.
   • Co-chaired the 26th Session of the India-Russia Inter-Governmental Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific, Technological and Cultural Cooperation (IRIGC-TEC).
   • Revised bilateral trade target of USD 100 billion by 2030.
   • Terms of reference for India-Eurasian Economic Union FTA were finalised.
   • S. Jaishankar visited Russia from August 19-21, 2025.
   • The 26th Session of the India-Russia Inter-Governmental Commission (IRIGC-TEC) was co-chaired by EAM.
   • The goal is to achieve a bilateral trade target of USD 100 billion by 2030.
   • India conveyed a zero-tolerance policy against terrorism.
   • S. Jaishankar visited Moscow for the 26th Session of the India-Russia Inter-Governmental Commission
   • Met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on August 21
   • Discussed bilateral issues and international cooperation
   • Highlighted challenges posed by tariff and non-tariff trade barriers
   • Called for "early conclusion" of a Free Trade Agreement among India and the countries of the Eurasian region
   • India faces 50% tariffs from the Trump administration, including 25% for importing Russian oil
3. 2025-12-05 [International Relations] — India-Russia Bilateral Relations
   Russian President Vladimir Putin visited India for the 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit in New Delhi, receiving a ceremonial welcome and holding talks with the Indian Prime Minister. India and Russia have a "Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership" since 2010, marked by trust, defence dependence, and political convergence on multipolarity. Russia is a major supplier of discounted crude oil, gas, and coking coal, and Indian companies have upstream stakes in Russian projects.
   More details

   UPSC Angle: India-Russia Annual Summit held in New Delhi.

   Key Facts:

   • Vladimir Putin: Russian President
   • 23rd India–Russia Annual Summit: New Delhi
   • “Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership”: Since 2010
   • Strategic Partnership: Since 2000
   • Sakhalin: Example of Russian project with Indian companies' upstream stakes
   • Signed 16 MoUs and agreements between India and Russia.
   • Cooperation areas: migration and mobility, health and medical sciences, food safety, maritime cooperation, shipping in polar waters, fertilizers and industrial collaboration, customs procedures, and trade facilitation.
   • Programme for Development of Strategic Areas of India-Russia Economic Cooperation till 2030 adopted.
   • Target: USD 100 billion bilateral trade by 2030.
   • Opening of two Indian Consulates General in Yekaterinburg and Kazan.
   • Free 30-day e-Tourist Visa and a 30-day Group Tourist Visa for Russian citizens will soon be introduced.
   • Joint venture in Urea manufacturing in Russia by Indian companies to be developed.
   • Cooperation on training India's seafarers for operations in polar waters.
   • Bilateral agreement between Department of Posts, Ministry of Communications of the Republic of India and JSC «Russian Post».
   • 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit: Held in New Delhi
   • Strategic Partnership: "Special and Privileged" since 2010
   • Key Areas of Cooperation: Defence, S&T, Space, Nuclear Energy, Connectivity
   • India-Russia Inter-Governmental Commission (IRIGC): Anchors relations
   • BRICS, SCO, G20, UN: Forums for strategic convergence
   • Trade heavily skewed in Russia's favour, Rupee-rouble settlement, frozen funds and banking connectivity remain unresolved
   • Vladimir Putin visited India for the 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit.
   • India and Russia enjoy a "Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership" since 2010.
   • Bilateral trade reached USD 68.7 billion in FY 2024–25.
   • Trade target of USD 100 billion by 2030.
   • Investment target of USD 50 billion mutual investments in energy, petrochemicals, banking, infrastructure, and pharma.
   • Long-term military-technical cooperation programme 2021–31.
   • Russia is a key collaborator for Gaganyaan astronaut training and space-tech sharing.
   • Programme for the Development of Strategic Areas of India - Russia Economic Cooperation till 2030 (Programme 2030).
4. 2025-12-29 [Economy] — India's Dependence on Russian Oil
   Russia became the largest contributor to India's crude basket starting FY 2022–23, according to India's Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS). Russia's share jumped from less than 2% in 2021–22 to 21.6% in 2022–23, rising further to 35.9% in 2023–24 and 35.8% in 2024–25. Currently, around one-third of India's total crude imports come from Russia.
   More details

   UPSC Angle: Russia is now India's largest crude oil supplier since FY23.

   Key Facts:

   • Largest contributor to India's crude basket: Russia (starting FY 2022–23)
   • Russia's crude oil share in 2021–22: Less than 2%
   • Russia's crude oil share in 2022–23: 21.6%
   • Russia's crude oil share in 2023–24: 35.9%
   • Russia's crude oil share in 2024–25: 35.8%
   • Current share of India's crude imports from Russia: around one-third
5. 2026-02-07 [International Relations] — India-Russia Energy Trade
   The India-Russia energy trade was just 2% of India's energy imports before February 2022 (the Russian invasion of Ukraine) but increased to more than 32% over the next few years. Bilateral trade between India and Russia reached a record high of $68.7 billion in FY 2024-25, with Russian oil imports comprising the bulk of this trade, amounting to $63.8 billion.
   More details

   UPSC Angle: India-Russia energy trade increased significantly after February 2022.

   Key Facts:

   • India-Russia energy trade before Feb 2022: 2% of India's energy imports
   • India-Russia energy trade now: More than 32% of India's energy imports
   • Bilateral trade between India and Russia in FY 2024-25: $68.7 billion
   • Russian oil imports: $63.8 billion
   • India's exports to Russia: $4.9 billion
6. 2026-02-19 [International Relations] — Russia Bypasses Sanctions with INSTC and BRICS Digital Payments
   Russia is developing alternative trade routes and payment systems to bypass Western sanctions, including the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) linking Russia to India via Iran, and the BRICS Bridge digital payment system. The 7,200-kilometer trade route cuts shipping time by 40%, while the BRICS Bridge, a blockchain-based payment system, connects central bank currencies to eliminate SWIFT dependency and potentially reduce transaction costs by up to 40%.
   More details

   UPSC Angle: Russia bypasses sanctions with INSTC and BRICS digital payments.

   Key Facts:

   • Russia is developing the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the BRICS Bridge digital payment system to bypass Western sanctions.
   • The INSTC is a 7,200-kilometer trade route.
   • The INSTC reduces shipping time by 40% and transit time from 45 days to under 25 days.
   • BRICS Bridge is a blockchain-based payment system connecting central bank digital currencies.