India's EV Boom and Supply Chain Strain: UPSC Current Affairs Story Arc

Overview

This arc documents India's ambitious pivot toward a self-reliant Electric Vehicle (EV) ecosystem, starting with localization initiatives in June 2025. Driven by government subsidies and high fuel prices, the sector witnessed a massive 28% sales growth in Q2 2025 and reached over 56.75 lakh registered EVs by August 2025. However, this rapid success triggered an unforeseen 'Copper Crunch' by early 2026. Because copper is the literal nervous system of EVs—used in batteries, motors, and charging grids—the resource shortage now threatens India's long-term goals of 30% EV penetration by 2030 and Net-Zero emissions by 2070.

How This Story Evolved

Localization plans (Jun '25) → Sales/Adoption Surge (Jul-Aug '25) → Copper Crunch (Jan '26)

1. 2025-06-09: Discussion on Localizing EV Manufacturing in India
   More details

   UPSC Angle: India planning to localize Electric Vehicle (EV) manufacturing.

   Key Facts:

   • India is planning to localize EV manufacturing.
2. 2025-07-05: Electric Vehicle Sales in India Up 28% in Q2 2025
   More details

   UPSC Angle: Electric vehicle sales in India up 28% in Q2 2025, driven by subsidies.

   Key Facts:

   • Electric Vehicle sales up 28% in Q2 2025
   • Key players: Tata, Ola Electric, Ather
3. 2025-08-28: India's Electric Vehicle Adoption Surges
   More details

   UPSC Angle: India's EV adoption: 56.75 lakh EVs registered by February 2025.

   Key Facts:

   • 56.75 lakh electric vehicles registered by February 2025
   • Electric two-wheeler (e-2W) sales hit 11.49 lakh units, up 21% from the previous year
   • Government aims to achieve 30% EV penetration by 2030
   • Aims to cut the economy's carbon intensity to below 45% by 2030
   • Transform into a net-zero nation by 2070
   • Electric two-wheeler (e-2W) sales: 11.49 lakh units
   • 21% increase in e-2W sales from previous year
   • Target: 30% EV penetration by 2030
4. 2026-01-21: Copper Crunch due to EV Boom
   More details

   UPSC Angle: EV boom is leading to a growing challenge of copper crunch.

   Key Facts:

   • Copper forms the backbone of EV batteries, motors, wiring, charging infrastructure, and power grids

Genesis

Trigger

Discussion on Localizing EV Manufacturing in India (June 09, 2025).

Why Now

The shift was driven by the dual pressure of volatile global oil prices and India's COP26 commitments to reduce carbon intensity below 45% by 2030.

Historical Context

Connects to the FAME-II scheme and the National Mission for Electric Mobility (NCEM) initiated in the mid-2010s to reduce petroleum dependence.

Key Turning Points

1. [2025-07-05] Q2 2025 Sales Report showing 28% growth

   Validated that government subsidies were successfully converting consumer demand.

   Before: EVs were niche. After: Mass adoption was confirmed, putting pressure on raw material supplies.

2. [2026-01-21] Announcement of Copper Crunch

   Shifted the narrative from 'demand generation' to 'supply chain security'.

   Before: Focus on selling vehicles. After: Focus on securing copper and minerals.

Key Actors and Institutions

Key Institutions

• Ministry of Heavy Industries (MHI)
• Hindustan Copper Limited (HCL)
• NITI Aayog
• Minerals Security Partnership (MSP)

Key Concepts

Localization

The process of shifting manufacturing from global imports to domestic production to improve supply chain resilience.

Current Fact: India planned to localize EV manufacturing starting June 09, 2025, to boost domestic tech development.

Net Zero 2070

India's commitment to balance the amount of greenhouse gases produced with the amount removed from the atmosphere by 2070.

Current Fact: This goal was a primary driver for the 56.75 lakh EV registrations recorded by February 2025.

Critical Minerals

Mineral resources essential for the economy and green energy transitions that are at high risk of supply disruption.

Current Fact: Copper was identified as a backbone for EV batteries and grids, leading to a crunch by Jan 2026.

What Happens Next

Current Status

As of January 21, 2026, the industry is facing a significant 'Copper Crunch,' with the resource shortage impacting the production of motors and charging infrastructure.

Likely Next

Introduction of a dedicated 'Critical Minerals Policy' or aggressive recycling (Circular Economy) mandates for electronic waste to recover copper.

Wildcards

Geopolitical shifts in the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP) or breakthroughs in sodium-ion batteries that require less copper.

Why UPSC Cares

Syllabus Topics

• Distribution of Key Natural Resources - Copper
• Changes in critical geographical features (Environmental changes)
• Infrastructure: Energy, Ports, Roads, Airports, Railways etc.
• Conservation, environmental pollution and degradation

Essay Angles

• The Geopolitics of Green Energy: From Oil to Critical Minerals
• India's Manufacturing Dreams vs. Resource Realities

Prelims Likely: Yes

Mains Likely: Yes

Trend Signal: rising

Exam Intelligence

Previous Year Question Connections

• Asked about Cobalt production in the Democratic Republic of Congo for EV batteries. — The 2026 Copper Crunch follows this trend of testing critical minerals essential for the EV transition.
• Tested India's membership in the Minerals Security Partnership and identifying 30 critical minerals. — Directly relates to the arc's theme of resource security and localization.

Prelims Angles

• Distribution of Copper in India (Malanjkhand, MP; Khetri, Rajasthan)
• Domestic production status (India is a net importer of copper as per Majid Husain)
• Specific targets of EV30@30 and Net Zero 2070
• Difference between FAME-I and FAME-II subsidy structures

Mains Preparation

Sample Question: Critically analyze the challenges in India's transition to electric mobility. How does the current 'resource crunch' in critical minerals like copper impact the localization goals of the Indian government?

Answer Structure: Intro: Define India's EV targets (30% by 2030) → Body 1: Success factors (28% growth, subsidies) → Body 2: The Copper Crunch and resource dependency (referencing import needs from Australia/Chile) → Body 3: Geopolitical implications (MSP membership) → Conclusion: Way forward via Circular Economy and deep-sea mining.

Essay Topic: Sustainable Development: Balancing Industrial Ambition with Resource Constraints

Textbook Connections

Key Takeaway

India's EV success is moving from a 'policy implementation' phase to a 'resource security' phase, making critical minerals like copper the new strategic frontline.

All Events in This Story (4 items)

1. 2025-06-09 [Economy] — Discussion on Localizing EV Manufacturing in India
   India is planning to localize Electric Vehicle (EV) manufacturing to reduce import dependence and boost domestic production. This initiative involves developing a comprehensive EV ecosystem, attracting investments, and promoting indigenous technology development, which are crucial for sustainable transportation and economic growth.
   More details

   UPSC Angle: India planning to localize Electric Vehicle (EV) manufacturing.

   Key Facts:

   • India is planning to localize EV manufacturing.
2. 2025-07-05 [Economy] — Electric Vehicle Sales in India Up 28% in Q2 2025
   India has registered a sharp rise in electric vehicle (EV) sales, with a 28% increase in Q2 2025. Key players driving this growth include Tata, Ola Electric, and Ather, with government subsidies and high fuel prices accelerating the transition.
   More details

   UPSC Angle: Electric vehicle sales in India up 28% in Q2 2025, driven by subsidies.

   Key Facts:

   • Electric Vehicle sales up 28% in Q2 2025
   • Key players: Tata, Ola Electric, Ather
3. 2025-08-28 [Economy] — India's Electric Vehicle Adoption Surges
   India has registered 56.75 lakh electric vehicles by February 2025, showcasing the rapid adoption of clean mobility. Electric two-wheeler (e-2W) sales hit 11.49 lakh units, up 21% from the previous year's 9.48 lakh. The Government of India aims to achieve 30% EV penetration by 2030, aligning with the global EV30@30 initiative.
   More details

   UPSC Angle: India's EV adoption: 56.75 lakh EVs registered by February 2025.

   Key Facts:

   • 56.75 lakh electric vehicles registered by February 2025
   • Electric two-wheeler (e-2W) sales hit 11.49 lakh units, up 21% from the previous year
   • Government aims to achieve 30% EV penetration by 2030
   • Aims to cut the economy's carbon intensity to below 45% by 2030
   • Transform into a net-zero nation by 2070
   • Electric two-wheeler (e-2W) sales: 11.49 lakh units
   • 21% increase in e-2W sales from previous year
   • Target: 30% EV penetration by 2030
4. 2026-01-21 [Economy] — Copper Crunch due to EV Boom
   The global shift toward electric vehicles (EVs) is leading to a growing challenge of copper crunch because copper forms the backbone of EV batteries, motors, wiring, charging infrastructure, and power grids.
   More details

   UPSC Angle: EV boom is leading to a growing challenge of copper crunch.

   Key Facts:

   • Copper forms the backbone of EV batteries, motors, wiring, charging infrastructure, and power grids