May 2025 India-Pakistan Border Escalation: UPSC Current Affairs Story Arc

Overview

This arc tracks a rapid military escalation between India and Pakistan in May 2025, transitioning from traditional small arms ceasefire violations to sophisticated missile and drone warfare. Starting on May 2 along the Line of Control (LoC) in Kupara, Uri, and Akhnoor, the conflict escalated within a week to include Pakistani missile strikes on Indian air bases and an attempted large-scale infiltration. India responded by neutralizing seven terrorists in Samba and deploying advanced air defense systems to intercept long-range threats. The conflict stabilized by mid-May, concluding with a massive cleanup operation to destroy 42 unexploded shells in civilian areas of Poonch, highlighting the persistent threat to border populations.

How This Story Evolved

Ceasefire violation (May 2) → Escalation to missile/drone strikes and infiltration attempts (May 10) → Post-conflict cleanup of unexploded shells (May 18)

1. 2025-05-02: Pakistan violates ceasefire along LoC
   More details

   UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

   Key Facts:

   • Pakistan violated the ceasefire on the night of May 2-3, 2025, along the LoC.
   • Firing occurred across Kupara, Uri, and Akhnoor areas.
   • The Indian Army responded promptly.
   • Pakistan has deployed tanks and artillery.
   • More than 150 terrorists are reportedly waiting to infiltrate into Jammu and Kashmir.
   • Violation: Ceasefire agreement along the Line of Control (LoC)
   • Date: Night of May 2-3, 2025
   • Perpetrator: Pakistan
   • Areas affected: Kupara, Uri, and Akhnoor areas of Jammu and Kashmir
   • Response: Indian army responded promptly and proportionately
2. 2025-05-10: India-Pakistan Conflict: Allegations and Responses
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   UPSC Angle: India-Pakistan conflict: allegations and responses.

   Key Facts:

   • India accused Pakistan of missile attacks on: Punjab air bases
   • Pakistan's Operation: Bunyan-un-Marsoos
   • Indian response: Operations aimed at terrorist camps, not religious sites
   • Fatah-II long-range missile was intercepted near the Sirsa Air Force Station
3. 2025-05-10: India repels Pakistan strikes
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   UPSC Angle: India repels Pakistan strikes; airspace violations.

   Key Facts:

   • BSF neutralised seven terrorists attempting to infiltrate through Samba (J&K).
   • Three civilians killed in mortar shelling in Baramulla and Poonch.
4. 2025-05-18: 42 Unexploded Shells Destroyed in J&K's Poonch
   More details

   UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

   Key Facts:

   • 42 unexploded shells were destroyed.
   • Location: Poonch district of Jammu and Kashmir, near the Line of Control.
   • The operation was conducted on Sunday, May 18, 2025.

Genesis

Trigger

The arc was triggered on the night of May 2-3, 2025, when Pakistan initiated unprovoked small arms fire and deployed tanks and artillery across the Kupara, Uri, and Akhnoor sectors of the LoC.

Why Now

The escalation coincided with reports of over 150 terrorists staged at launchpads across the LoC, suggesting the ceasefire violation was a tactical diversion to facilitate large-scale infiltration into Jammu and Kashmir.

Historical Context

This follows the pattern of 'Proxy War' and ceasefire violations noted since the 1947 conflict. It specifically mirrors the 2015-16 hostilities in the same sectors (Uri, Poonch, Samba) mentioned in standard geography texts like Majid Husain.

Key Turning Points

1. [2025-05-10] Escalation to Missile/Drone Warfare & Operation Bunyan-un-Marsoos

   The conflict moved beyond localized LoC skirmishes to strategic attacks on air bases in Punjab.

   Before this: Localized infantry firing and infiltration attempts. After this: Full-scale air defense activation and interception of long-range missiles like Fatah-II.

2. [2025-05-18] Clearance of 42 Unexploded Shells in Poonch

   Signaled the end of the high-intensity phase and the beginning of civilian safety restoration.

   Before this: High civilian risk from mortar shelling. After this: Transition to post-conflict stabilization.

Key Actors and Institutions

Key Institutions

• Border Security Force (BSF)
• Indian Army
• Indian Air Force (IAF)
• Department of Border Management (MHA)

Key Concepts

Ceasefire Violation (CFV)

A breach of the agreed-upon suspension of hostilities along the Line of Control (LoC), often used as 'cover fire' for terrorist infiltration.

Current Fact: Violations occurred on May 2-3, 2025, involving unprovoked small arms, tanks, and artillery fire.

Infiltration

The surreptitious crossing of a border by hostile elements, typically terrorists, to conduct sabotage or insurgency.

Current Fact: Over 150 terrorists were reported sitting across the LoC on May 2, with 7 neutralized in Samba on May 10.

Missile Interception

The use of air defense systems to track and destroy incoming enemy missiles before they reach their target.

Current Fact: India intercepted a Fatah-II long-range missile near the Sirsa Air Force Station on May 10, 2025.

UXO (Unexploded Ordnance)

Explosive weapons (shells, bombs, grenades) that did not explode when they were employed and still pose a risk of detonation.

Current Fact: 42 unexploded shells were destroyed in forward villages of Poonch on May 18, 2025.

What Happens Next

Current Status

As of May 18, 2025, the kinetic conflict has subsided into a 'cleanup phase,' with security forces focusing on neutralizing unexploded ordnance in forward villages.

Likely Next

Heightened surveillance by the BSF and Indian Army to prevent the 150+ staged terrorists from exploiting any remaining gaps; diplomatic de-escalation talks via DGMO (Director General of Military Operations) channels.

Wildcards

Potential 'Black Swan' event if a successful drone strike occurs on a major Indian installation, or if internal political instability in Pakistan leads to further 'Operation Bunyan-un-Marsoos' style misadventures.

Why UPSC Cares

Syllabus Topics

• India and its neighborhood- relations
• Security challenges and their management in border areas
• Role of external state and non-state actors in creating challenges to internal security

Essay Angles

• The shifting nature of border conflicts: From boots on the ground to drones in the sky
• Internal Security vs. Neighborhood Diplomacy: India's perpetual tightrope walk

Prelims Likely: Yes

Mains Likely: Yes

Trend Signal: perennial

Exam Intelligence

Previous Year Question Connections

• Identified the Ministry responsible for the Department of Border Management. — The cleanup of 42 shells on May 18 is a core border management function under the Ministry of Home Affairs.
• Tested the specific roles of BSF vs ITBP vs Assam Rifles. — This arc explicitly features the BSF's role in neutralizing infiltrators (7 terrorists in Samba) vs. the Army's LoC role.

Prelims Angles

• The specific location of Sirsa Air Force Station and its strategic proximity to the Punjab/Haryana border.
• The technical classification of the Fatah-II as a long-range missile system used by Pakistan.
• Distinction between the LoC (Army jurisdiction) and the International Border in Samba (BSF jurisdiction).

Mains Preparation

Sample Question: Analyze the evolving nature of cross-border security challenges in Jammu and Kashmir in light of the May 2025 escalation. How has the integration of drone and missile technology altered India's border management strategy?

Answer Structure: Intro: Context of May 2025 escalation → Body 1: The dual threat of traditional infiltration and high-tech missile strikes (Fatah-II) → Body 2: Role of BSF and Army in multi-layered defense → Critical Analysis: Impact on border civilians (Poonch/Baramulla shelling) → Way Forward: Tech-based surveillance (CIBMS) and diplomatic pressure.

Essay Topic: Modern Borders: Where Geography Ends and Technology Begins.

Textbook Connections

Key Takeaway

The May 2025 escalation demonstrates a dangerous shift where traditional LoC 'proxy war' tactics are now being augmented by strategic missile strikes and drone incursions, requiring a hybrid response from India's Army and BSF.

All Events in This Story (4 items)

1. 2025-05-02 [Defense & Security] — Pakistan violates ceasefire along LoC
   On the night of May 2-3, 2025, Pakistan violated the ceasefire agreement along the Line of Control (LoC), resorting to unprovoked small arms fire across Kupara, Uri, and Akhnoor areas. The Indian Army responded promptly and proportionately. Pakistan has reportedly deployed tanks, artillery, and additional troops, and there are inputs suggesting that over 150 terrorists are sitting across the LoC, attempting to infiltrate into Jammu and Kashmir.
   More details

   UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

   Key Facts:

   • Pakistan violated the ceasefire on the night of May 2-3, 2025, along the LoC.
   • Firing occurred across Kupara, Uri, and Akhnoor areas.
   • The Indian Army responded promptly.
   • Pakistan has deployed tanks and artillery.
   • More than 150 terrorists are reportedly waiting to infiltrate into Jammu and Kashmir.
   • Violation: Ceasefire agreement along the Line of Control (LoC)
   • Date: Night of May 2-3, 2025
   • Perpetrator: Pakistan
   • Areas affected: Kupara, Uri, and Akhnoor areas of Jammu and Kashmir
   • Response: Indian army responded promptly and proportionately
2. 2025-05-10 [International Relations] — India-Pakistan Conflict: Allegations and Responses
   During the conflict, India accused Pakistan of launching missile attacks on air bases in Punjab, including the Pathankot military airfield. Pakistan retaliated by launching Operation Bunyan-un-Marsoos, targeting several Indian military bases. India refuted Pakistan's claims of targeting mosques, asserting that operations were aimed at terrorist camps and facilities used for anti-India activities.
   More details

   UPSC Angle: India-Pakistan conflict: allegations and responses.

   Key Facts:

   • India accused Pakistan of missile attacks on: Punjab air bases
   • Pakistan's Operation: Bunyan-un-Marsoos
   • Indian response: Operations aimed at terrorist camps, not religious sites
   • Fatah-II long-range missile was intercepted near the Sirsa Air Force Station
3. 2025-05-10 [Defense & Security] — India repels Pakistan strikes
   Pakistan violated Indian airspace for the second day, prompting heightened Indian defensive actions, and armed drones & missiles were reported across strategic zones. Indian armed forces effectively repelled drone/missile attacks using air defence systems, and BSF neutralised seven terrorists attempting to infiltrate through Samba (J&K). Three civilians were killed in mortar shelling in Baramulla and Poonch.
   More details

   UPSC Angle: India repels Pakistan strikes; airspace violations.

   Key Facts:

   • BSF neutralised seven terrorists attempting to infiltrate through Samba (J&K).
   • Three civilians killed in mortar shelling in Baramulla and Poonch.
4. 2025-05-18 [Defense & Security] — 42 Unexploded Shells Destroyed in J&K's Poonch
   Security forces destroyed 42 unexploded shells in forward villages near the Line of Control in the Poonch district of Jammu and Kashmir. The operation aimed to clear civilian areas following a military confrontation between India and Pakistan.
   More details

   UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

   Key Facts:

   • 42 unexploded shells were destroyed.
   • Location: Poonch district of Jammu and Kashmir, near the Line of Control.
   • The operation was conducted on Sunday, May 18, 2025.