Operational Fallout of Indus Waters Treaty Suspension: UPSC Current Affairs Story Arc

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GS-2GS-34 events · 2025-04-25 → 2026-01-05

A single terror attack in Pahalgam claiming 26 lives has effectively frozen a 65-year-old water treaty, triggering a 21% drop in river flow for Pakistan and a race to maximize the 690 MW Salal Power Project's capacity through emergency desilting.

Overview

This arc tracks the rapid escalation of Indo-Pak tensions following a major terror attack in April 2025, leading to the historic suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). India's shift from strategic restraint to 'water leverage' saw the J&K administration asserting full control over the Jhelum and Chenab rivers—waters previously earmarked for Pakistan. The fallout moved from diplomatic rhetoric (threats of 'water war') to operational directives, culminating in specific engineering orders to clear sediment at the Salal Hydroelectric Project to ensure India utilizes every drop of the Chenab. It represents a paradigm shift where water is no longer a separate bilateral silo but a core tool of India's counter-terrorism doctrine.

How This Story Evolved

Terror attack leads to IWT suspension (Item 10) → Pakistan threatens 'water war' (Item 6) → J&K LG asserts full control over rivers (Item 1) → Directives issued to maximize Salal project capacity due to treaty abeyance (Seed)

  1. 2025-04-25: India Suspends Indus Water Treaty
    More details

    UPSC Angle: India suspends Indus Water Treaty after militant attack.

    Key Facts:

    • Pahalgam terror attack resulted in 26 deaths.
    • Pakistan suspended the 1972 Simla Agreement.
    • India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty.
    • Wagah border closed by Pakistan.
    • India revokes visas issued to Pakistan nationals.
    • The Resistance Front (TRF), an offshoot of Lashkar-e-Taiba, claimed responsibility for the attack.
    • The Indus Waters Treaty was signed on September 19, 1960.
    • India considering options it has 'never considered' under the Indus Waters Treaty.
    • Pakistan has suspended the 1972 Simla Agreement.
    • Pakistan closed the Wagah border.
    • Pakistan halted all trade with India.
    • Pakistan banned Indian airlines from using its airspace.
    • India suspended the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) following a militant attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir.
    • The Indus Waters Treaty was signed between India and Pakistan on September 19, 1960.
    • The treaty was designed to ensure cooperation and information-sharing between the two countries regarding water use from the Indus River system.
    • India is exploring options under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) that it has never considered before.
    • Options include withdrawing from talks on evolving a new 'Dispute Resolution Mechanism', changing the design of hydropower projects to allow greater water storage and deploy 'draw down flushing' of its reservoirs.
    • The terror attack occurred in Pahalgam.
    • India put on hold the Indus Waters Treaty.
    • India downgraded diplomatic relations with Pakistan.
    • India expelled diplomats.
    • India cancelled all visas granted to Pakistan nationals and directed them to leave the country in 48 hours.
    • India shut the Attari-Wagah border.
    • Pakistan said it “shall exercise the right to hold all bilateral agreements with India, including but not limited to the Simla Agreement, in abeyance”.
  2. 2025-06-08: Pakistan Threatens 'Water War' with India
    More details

    UPSC Angle: Pakistan threatens 'water war' with India after IWT suspension.

    Key Facts:

    • Pakistan's Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said Pakistan will defeat India in a water war.
    • India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty after the Pahalgam attack.
    • Pakistan's Indus River System Authority reported a 21% decrease in the flow of the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers.
    • Shashi Tharoor stated that terrorists are rewarded in Pakistan.
  3. 2025-07-20: J&K L-G asserts control over Indus Waters Treaty
    More details

    UPSC Angle: J&K L-G asserts control over Indus Waters Treaty.

    Key Facts:

    • Manoj Sinha
    • Indus Waters Treaty
    • Jhelum river
    • Chenab river
    • Manoj Sinha: Jammu & Kashmir Lieutenant Governor
    • India will have full control over the Jhelum and Chenab rivers
    • Indus Waters Treaty (IWT): Now in abeyance
  4. 2026-01-05: Salal Power Project Sediment Removal
    More details

    UPSC Angle: Sediment removal at Salal Power Project to maximize water utilization.

    Key Facts:

    • Salal Power Project location: Jammu and Kashmir
    • Power generation capacity: 690 MW
    • River: Chenab
    • Reason for sediment removal: maximum utilisation of water resources in view of Indus Waters Treaty being kept in abeyance

Genesis

Trigger

The Pahalgam terror attack on April 25, 2025, which resulted in the deaths of 26 civilians, served as the immediate catalyst for India's decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty.

Why Now

India's 'policy of abeyance' reflects a hardened stance that 'blood and water cannot flow together,' a sentiment reinforced by the scale of civilian casualties and Pakistan's subsequent suspension of the 1972 Simla Agreement.

Historical Context

The IWT, signed in 1960 and mediated by the World Bank, had previously survived multiple wars (1965, 1971, 1999). This suspension marks the first time since its inception that the treaty's fundamental cooperative framework has been formally set aside.

Key Turning Points

  1. [2025-04-25] Pahalgam attack and India's formal suspension of the IWT

    It broke a 65-year diplomatic tradition of insulating water sharing from cross-border terrorism.

    Before: Water sharing continued despite wars. After: Water became an active instrument of statecraft and retaliation.

  2. [2026-01-05] Directive for sediment removal at Salal Project

    Signifies the shift from political rhetoric to ground-level operational changes to maximize water usage.

    Before: Operations were constrained by IWT storage and flow regulations. After: Technical limits are being pushed to ensure maximum resource utilization.

Key Actors and Institutions

NameRoleRelevance
Manoj SinhaLieutenant Governor of Jammu & KashmirAsserted full administrative control over the Jhelum and Chenab rivers, declaring that India's waters will 'stop in the country only' for its own people.
Khawaja AsifDefence Minister of PakistanIssued a direct threat of 'water war' against India following the IWT suspension and the 21% reduction in river flows.

Key Institutions

  • Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)
  • Indus River System Authority (IRSA - Pakistan)
  • National Hydroelectric Power Corporation (NHPC)
  • World Bank

Key Concepts

Western Rivers

Under the 1960 Treaty, the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers were allocated to Pakistan for unrestricted use, while India was limited to run-of-the-river projects and minor irrigation.

Current Fact: J&K L-G Manoj Sinha asserted 'full control' over the Jhelum and Chenab rivers following the treaty's abeyance in July 2025.

Run-of-the-River Project

A type of hydroelectric generation where little or no water storage is provided, using the natural flow of the river to generate power.

Current Fact: The 690 MW Salal Power Project on the Chenab river is a run-of-the-river project now undergoing sediment removal to maximize capacity.

Simla Agreement (1972)

A bilateral agreement between India and Pakistan following the 1971 war, committing both nations to resolve all issues through bilateral negotiations without third-party intervention.

Current Fact: Pakistan suspended the Simla Agreement on April 25, 2025, in response to India's suspension of the IWT.

What Happens Next

Current Status

As of January 2026, the Union Power Ministry has moved from policy assertions to technical execution, ordering the removal of sediment at the Salal Power Project to maximize water storage and power generation on the Chenab.

Likely Next

India is likely to fast-track other stalled projects on the Western Rivers (Kishanganga, Ratle) while Pakistan may approach the Permanent Court of Arbitration or the World Bank for intervention.

Wildcards

A major hydrological crisis or flood event in the Indus basin could force a temporary restoration of communication protocols to prevent regional catastrophe.

Why UPSC Cares

Syllabus Topics

  • India and its neighborhood- relations
  • Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India
  • Infrastructure: Energy, Ports, Roads, Airports, Railways etc.

Essay Angles

  • Water as a Weapon: The New Frontier of Modern Warfare
  • The Geopolitics of Himalayan Rivers in South Asia
  • Resource Diplomacy: Balancing International Treaties with National Security

Prelims Likely: Yes

Mains Likely: Yes

Trend Signal: rising

Exam Intelligence

Previous Year Question Connections

  • Identified 'Western Rivers' as Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. — Tests the foundational geography that this arc actively disrupts through administrative control shifts.
  • Asked which river the Salal project is developed on. — The Salal project's location on the Chenab is the precise site of the latest operational escalation in the arc.

Prelims Angles

  • Specific river basin allocations: Sutlej, Beas, Ravi (Eastern) vs. Indus, Jhelum, Chenab (Western).
  • Technical details of the Salal Hydroelectric Project: 690 MW capacity, located in Reasi district on the Chenab river.
  • Provisions of the Simla Agreement 1972 regarding bilateralism versus third-party mediation.
  • The role of the World Bank as a mediator/signatory in the original 1960 Treaty.

Mains Preparation

Sample Question: Analyze the strategic and operational implications of India’s decision to keep the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance. How does this shift reflect a change in India’s neighborhood policy and what are the potential long-term risks to regional stability?

Answer Structure: Intro: Context of Pahalgam attack and the shift from strategic restraint to 'water leverage'. Body 1: Legal and diplomatic implications (Simla Agreement suspension, abeyance vs. abrogation). Body 2: Operational changes (Sediment removal at Salal, J&K LG's assertion of control). Body 3: Geo-economic impact on Pakistan (21% flow reduction) and potential for 'water war'. Conclusion: Critical analysis of the balance between security and international river law.

Essay Topic: Bridges or Barriers? The Role of Shared Natural Resources in Protracted Geopolitical Conflicts.

Textbook Connections

Geography of India ,Majid Husain, (McGrawHill 9th ed.) > Chapter 3: The Drainage System of India > The Indus Water Treaty > p. 39

Explains the 1960 arbitration role of the World Bank and the exclusive rights of India over Eastern rivers.

Gap: Textbook describes the treaty as a stable cooperation mechanism; the arc shows it can be suspended for security reasons.

CONTEMPORARY INDIA-I ,Geography, Class IX . NCERT(Revised ed 2025) > Chapter 3: Drainage > The Indus River System > p. 18

States India can use only 20% of the total water carried by the Indus system.

Gap: The arc suggests India is now moving to bypass these percentage constraints through 'abeyance' of the treaty.

Quick Revision

  • Pahalgam terror attack (April 25, 2025): 26 civilian deaths triggered the IWT suspension.
  • Indus Waters Treaty (1960): Covers 6 rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, Sutlej).
  • Pakistan's Response: Suspended the 1972 Simla Agreement and reported a 21% decrease in river flow.
  • Salal Power Project: 690 MW, run-of-the-river project located on the Chenab river in J&K.
  • Operational Change: Directives issued Jan 5, 2026, for sediment removal at Salal to maximize water utilization.
  • Simla Agreement: Signed between Indira Gandhi and Zulfikar Bhutto to maintain the sanctity of the LoC and bilateralism.
  • J&K L-G Manoj Sinha's July 20, 2025, declaration: Asserted 'full control' over Western rivers (Jhelum/Chenab).

Key Takeaway

The transition of the Indus Waters Treaty from a stable diplomatic bedrock to an active tool of coercive diplomacy highlights the new era where infrastructure management is integral to national security.

All Events in This Story (4 items)

  1. 2025-04-25 [International Relations] — India Suspends Indus Water Treaty
    India suspended the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) following a militant attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, which killed 26 civilians. The Indus Waters Treaty was signed between India and Pakistan on September 19, 1960, with the World Bank acting as a mediator. The treaty was designed to ensure cooperation and information-sharing between the two countries regarding water use from the Indus River system, which includes six rivers: Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: India suspends Indus Water Treaty after militant attack.

    Key Facts:

    • Pahalgam terror attack resulted in 26 deaths.
    • Pakistan suspended the 1972 Simla Agreement.
    • India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty.
    • Wagah border closed by Pakistan.
    • India revokes visas issued to Pakistan nationals.
    • The Resistance Front (TRF), an offshoot of Lashkar-e-Taiba, claimed responsibility for the attack.
    • The Indus Waters Treaty was signed on September 19, 1960.
    • India considering options it has 'never considered' under the Indus Waters Treaty.
    • Pakistan has suspended the 1972 Simla Agreement.
    • Pakistan closed the Wagah border.
    • Pakistan halted all trade with India.
    • Pakistan banned Indian airlines from using its airspace.
    • India suspended the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) following a militant attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir.
    • The Indus Waters Treaty was signed between India and Pakistan on September 19, 1960.
    • The treaty was designed to ensure cooperation and information-sharing between the two countries regarding water use from the Indus River system.
    • India is exploring options under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) that it has never considered before.
    • Options include withdrawing from talks on evolving a new 'Dispute Resolution Mechanism', changing the design of hydropower projects to allow greater water storage and deploy 'draw down flushing' of its reservoirs.
    • The terror attack occurred in Pahalgam.
    • India put on hold the Indus Waters Treaty.
    • India downgraded diplomatic relations with Pakistan.
    • India expelled diplomats.
    • India cancelled all visas granted to Pakistan nationals and directed them to leave the country in 48 hours.
    • India shut the Attari-Wagah border.
    • Pakistan said it “shall exercise the right to hold all bilateral agreements with India, including but not limited to the Simla Agreement, in abeyance”.
  2. 2025-06-08 [International Relations] — Pakistan Threatens 'Water War' with India
    Following India's suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, Pakistan's Defence Minister Khawaja Asif claimed that his country would defeat India in a 'water war' due to reduced water flow in the Chenab River, while India asserts that Pakistan harbors terrorists.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: Pakistan threatens 'water war' with India after IWT suspension.

    Key Facts:

    • Pakistan's Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said Pakistan will defeat India in a water war.
    • India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty after the Pahalgam attack.
    • Pakistan's Indus River System Authority reported a 21% decrease in the flow of the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers.
    • Shashi Tharoor stated that terrorists are rewarded in Pakistan.
  3. 2025-07-20 [International Relations] — J&K L-G asserts control over Indus Waters Treaty
    Jammu & Kashmir Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha stated that India will have full control over the Jhelum and Chenab rivers, referring to the now-in-abeyance Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). He said that India's waters will flow for its people and stop in the country only.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: J&K L-G asserts control over Indus Waters Treaty.

    Key Facts:

    • Manoj Sinha
    • Indus Waters Treaty
    • Jhelum river
    • Chenab river
    • Manoj Sinha: Jammu & Kashmir Lieutenant Governor
    • India will have full control over the Jhelum and Chenab rivers
    • Indus Waters Treaty (IWT): Now in abeyance
  4. 2026-01-05 [Environment & Ecology] — Salal Power Project Sediment Removal
    The Union Minister of Power and Housing and Urban Affairs directed sediment removal at the Salal Power Project in Jammu and Kashmir to ensure maximum utilization of water resources, especially with the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance between India and Pakistan. The Salal Hydroelectric Project is a 690 MW run-of-the-river power project on the Chenab River.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: Sediment removal at Salal Power Project to maximize water utilization.

    Key Facts:

    • Salal Power Project location: Jammu and Kashmir
    • Power generation capacity: 690 MW
    • River: Chenab
    • Reason for sediment removal: maximum utilisation of water resources in view of Indus Waters Treaty being kept in abeyance

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