The Collapse of the New START Framework: UPSC Current Affairs Story Arc

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GS-2GS-32 events · 2025-06-18 → 2026-02-05

For the first time since the Cold War, the world’s two largest nuclear powers are bound by zero legal limits. While SIPRI reports a global stockpile of 12,241 warheads, the expiration of the New START treaty on February 5, 2026, has officially removed the 'ceiling' on the Russian and American strategic arsenals.

Overview

This arc tracks the final collapse of the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement between the US and Russia—the New START Treaty. It began with the SIPRI Yearbook 2025, which highlighted a dangerous return to nuclear build-up, with China expanding its arsenal by 100 warheads annually. When the treaty expired in February 2026, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned of a global security vacuum. The US responded by shifting the goalposts, refusing new bilateral deals unless China is included. For India, this represents a shift toward a 'tripolar' nuclear world, complicating its own 'Credible Minimum Deterrence' posture as regional rivals like Pakistan (170 warheads) and China (600 warheads) continue to modernize.

How This Story Evolved

SIPRI warns of expiration context (Jun 2025) → Treaty expires prompting UN warning (Feb 5, 2026) → US President outlines new conditions for future treaties (Feb 11, 2026)

  1. 2025-06-18: Global Nuclear Arsenal: SIPRI Yearbook 2025
    More details

    UPSC Angle: SIPRI Yearbook 2025: India has 180 nuclear weapons.

    Key Facts:

    • Nine countries possess 12,241 nuclear weapons as of January 1, 2025.
    • Russia has 5,459 nuclear weapons, and the USA has 5,177.
    • India has 180 nuclear warheads as of January 2025.
    • Pakistan has an estimated 170 warheads as of January 2025.
    • China has 600 nuclear warheads, growing at approximately 100 per year since 2023.
    • The New START treaty expires in 2026, with no successor in sight.
    • India's nuclear warhead count increased to 180.
    • Developing new nuclear delivery systems.
    • Shift towards mating warheads with launchers.
    • India's nuclear warhead count: 180
    • Year: 2024
    • Source: SIPRI report
    • Nine states possessed approximately 12,241 nuclear weapons at the start of 2025
    • Russia: 5,459 nuclear weapons
    • US: 5,177 nuclear weapons
    • China: 600 nuclear weapons
    • France: 290 nuclear weapons
    • UK: 225 nuclear weapons
    • India: 180 nuclear weapons
    • Pakistan: 170 nuclear weapons
    • Israel: 90 nuclear weapons
    • North Korea: 50 nuclear weapons
  2. 2026-02-05: UN Secretary-General on the Expiration of the New START Treaty
    More details

    UPSC Angle: UN Secretary-General on the expiration of the New START Treaty.

    Key Facts:

    • The New START agreement ended on February 5, 2026.
    • The agreement limited the strategic nuclear arsenals of both the Russian Federation and the United States.

Genesis

Trigger

The publication of the SIPRI Yearbook 2025 on June 18, 2025, which acted as a statistical alarm bell by documenting the surge to 12,241 global warheads and the accelerating expansion of China's nuclear force.

Why Now

The New START treaty had a fixed expiration date of February 5, 2026. The lack of diplomatic 'thaw' between the US and Russia, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, prevented the negotiation of a successor framework before the deadline.

Historical Context

The New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) was signed in 2010 and extended in 2021. It was the successor to a series of Cold War-era treaties (SALT, START I) aimed at preventing an unlimited nuclear arms race.

Key Turning Points

  1. [2025-06-18] SIPRI Yearbook 2025 Release

    It quantified the nuclear 'renaissance' and highlighted China's rapid growth (600 warheads), providing the pretext for US demands.

    Before: Focus was on US-Russia bilateral limits. After: Global attention shifted to China's 'sprint to parity' and the weakening of control frameworks.

  2. [2026-02-05] Official Expiration of New START

    Ended 50 years of continuous, legally binding limits on the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals.

    Before: Strategic stability was maintained through inspections and caps. After: Total lack of transparency and legal ceilings.

Key Actors and Institutions

NameRoleRelevance
Antonio GuterresUN Secretary-GeneralHe officially declared the expiration a 'grave moment' for international security and urged a return to the negotiating table to prevent an unregulated arms race.
US PresidentHead of State, USAOutlined the new US doctrine on February 11, 2026, which mandates China's inclusion in any future nuclear arms limitation treaties.

Key Institutions

  • Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
  • United Nations (UN)
  • Strategic Rocket Forces (Russia)
  • United States Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM)

Key Concepts

New START Treaty

A bilateral treaty between the US and Russia that limited each side to 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and 700 deployed missiles and bombers.

Current Fact: The agreement officially ended on February 5, 2026, leaving both nations with no binding strategic limits.

Credible Minimum Deterrence

A nuclear posture where a state maintains only the minimum number of weapons necessary to deter an adversary from attacking.

Current Fact: India maintains 180 nuclear warheads as of January 2025, adhering to this doctrine while modernizing delivery systems.

Strategic Nuclear Arsenal

Long-range nuclear weapons (ICBMs, SLBMs, and heavy bombers) designed to strike an enemy's heartland.

Current Fact: Russia and the USA currently hold over 90% of the world's global warheads, totaling over 10,600 combined.

What Happens Next

Current Status

As of February 11, 2026, the US has officially conditioned any future nuclear frameworks on the inclusion of China, effectively ending the era of bilateral US-Russia arms control.

Likely Next

A period of 'unconstrained competition' where both Russia (5,459 warheads) and the USA (5,177 warheads) may begin increasing their deployed strategic launchers to match or exceed each other.

Wildcards

A 'nuclear breakout' by China to reach parity with the US/Russia, or a sudden decision by Russia to station nuclear weapons in non-nuclear states, further stressing the NPT framework.

Why UPSC Cares

Syllabus Topics

  • Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests
  • Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests
  • Role of external state and non-state actors in creating challenges to internal security

Essay Angles

  • The illusion of global security in a post-treaty world.
  • Is nuclear disarmament a discarded dream of the 20th century?
  • The challenge of tripolar deterrence: US, Russia, and China.

Prelims Likely: Yes

Mains Likely: Yes

Trend Signal: rising

Exam Intelligence

Previous Year Question Connections

  • What is the 'New START' treaty? — The original treaty's definition was directly tested; its expiration is now the critical current affairs update.
  • Recognized Nuclear Weapon States under NPT. — Highlights the distinction between NPT-recognized states (P5) and states like India/Pakistan, which is central to SIPRI reporting.

Prelims Angles

  • Fact Check: India's 2025 warhead count (180) vs Pakistan's (170).
  • SIPRI Headquarters location (Solna, Sweden) and its role as an independent monitor.
  • Timeline: The date New START expired (Feb 5, 2026) and its primary signatories (US-Russia).
  • China's nuclear growth rate: ~100 warheads per year according to SIPRI 2025.

Mains Preparation

Sample Question: The expiration of the New START treaty marks the end of the bilateral arms control era and the beginning of a complex tripolar nuclear dynamic. Discuss the implications of this shift for global strategic stability and India's nuclear doctrine.

Answer Structure: Intro: Define New START and its expiration (Feb 2026). Body 1: The vacuum in US-Russia relations and the risks of an unconstrained arms race. Body 2: The 'China factor' and why the US is demanding a trilateral framework. Body 3: Impact on India—security dilemma with China/Pakistan and pressure on the 'No First Use' policy. Conclusion: Need for a new multilateral 'Global Zero' dialogue or a 'Minimum Deterrence' consensus.

Essay Topic: Nuclear Weapons: From Instruments of Peace through Deterrence to Tools of Global Instability.

Textbook Connections

Indian Polity, M. Laxmikanth (7th ed.) > Chapter 88: Foreign Policy > NUCLEAR DOCTRINE OF INDIA > p. 611

Explains India's 'No First Use' and 'Credible Minimum Deterrence'—the very concepts being stressed by the SIPRI reported buildup.

Gap: Laxmikanth provides the doctrine but doesn't cover the 'tripolar' challenge created by the collapse of US-Russia treaties.

Contemporary World Politics, NCERT Class XII > Chapter 5: Security in the Contemporary World > p. 69

Discusses the NPT and arms control as a means of 'regulated acquisition'.

Gap: The NCERT describes arms control as a stabilizing force; the arc shows the total breakdown of this stabilization mechanism.

Quick Revision

  • New START Treaty expired on February 5, 2026.
  • SIPRI 2025: Global nuclear inventory stands at 12,241 warheads.
  • Russia holds 5,459 warheads; USA holds 5,177 warheads (90% of global total).
  • India's nuclear arsenal: 180 warheads (as of Jan 2025).
  • Pakistan's nuclear arsenal: 170 warheads (as of Jan 2025).
  • China's nuclear expansion: 600 warheads total, growing by 100/year.
  • US Policy shift: Future treaties must include China (declared Feb 11, 2026).
  • India is moving toward mating warheads with launchers in peacetime (SIPRI observation).

Key Takeaway

The collapse of New START transitions the world from a regulated bilateral nuclear order to an unpredictable tripolar race, forcing India to recalibrate its deterrence in an era of zero binding limits.

All Events in This Story (2 items)

  1. 2025-06-18 [Defense & Security] — Global Nuclear Arsenal: SIPRI Yearbook 2025
    The SIPRI Yearbook 2025 reveals that nine countries possess approximately 12,241 nuclear weapons as of January 1, 2025, with Russia and the USA holding over 90% of global warheads. India has 180 nuclear warheads and continues to develop new delivery systems, moving towards mating warheads with launchers in peacetime. The report signals a concerning return to nuclear arms build-up amidst weakening control frameworks.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: SIPRI Yearbook 2025: India has 180 nuclear weapons.

    Key Facts:

    • Nine countries possess 12,241 nuclear weapons as of January 1, 2025.
    • Russia has 5,459 nuclear weapons, and the USA has 5,177.
    • India has 180 nuclear warheads as of January 2025.
    • Pakistan has an estimated 170 warheads as of January 2025.
    • China has 600 nuclear warheads, growing at approximately 100 per year since 2023.
    • The New START treaty expires in 2026, with no successor in sight.
    • India's nuclear warhead count increased to 180.
    • Developing new nuclear delivery systems.
    • Shift towards mating warheads with launchers.
    • India's nuclear warhead count: 180
    • Year: 2024
    • Source: SIPRI report
    • Nine states possessed approximately 12,241 nuclear weapons at the start of 2025
    • Russia: 5,459 nuclear weapons
    • US: 5,177 nuclear weapons
    • China: 600 nuclear weapons
    • France: 290 nuclear weapons
    • UK: 225 nuclear weapons
    • India: 180 nuclear weapons
    • Pakistan: 170 nuclear weapons
    • Israel: 90 nuclear weapons
    • North Korea: 50 nuclear weapons
  2. 2026-02-05 [International Relations] — UN Secretary-General on the Expiration of the New START Treaty
    UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated that the expiration of the New START Treaty marks a grave moment for international peace and security. For the first time in more than half a century, the world faces a situation without any binding limits on the strategic nuclear arsenals of both the Russian Federation and the United States. He urged both states to return to the negotiating table and agree upon a successor framework.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: UN Secretary-General on the expiration of the New START Treaty.

    Key Facts:

    • The New START agreement ended on February 5, 2026.
    • The agreement limited the strategic nuclear arsenals of both the Russian Federation and the United States.

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