The Pahalgam-Indus Treaty Escalation: UPSC Current Affairs Story Arc

Overview

This arc tracks the unprecedented breakdown of one of the world's most successful water-sharing agreements. Following a terror attack in Pahalgam in April 2025, India launched a military response (Operation Sindoor) and subsequently hardened its diplomatic stance at the SCO in July 2025. By December 2025, Pakistan accused India of weaponizing water by halting data sharing and construction of hydropower projects. The escalation reached its peak on January 27, 2026, when India officially informed the UN that it was placing the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in abeyance until Pakistan ends its support for cross-border terrorism, effectively signaling that water sharing is no longer decoupled from regional security.

How This Story Evolved

India refuses SCO declaration citing Pahalgam attack (Item 5) → Pakistan alleges India is violating Indus Waters Treaty in retaliation (Item 8) → India confirms IWT abeyance and defends retaliatory Op Sindoor at UN (Item 3)

1. 2025-07-22: India refuses to sign joint declaration at SCO Defence Ministers' meeting
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   UPSC Angle: India refuses to sign SCO declaration due to Pahalgam attack.

   Key Facts:

   • India refused to sign a joint declaration at the SCO Defence Ministers' meeting in Qingdao, China.
   • The declaration lacked mention of the Pahalgam attack but included militant activities in Balochistan.
   • India was granted observer status in 2005 and became a full member in 2017.
2. 2025-12-19: India-Pakistan Relations: Water Dispute and Regional Security
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   UPSC Angle: India-Pakistan water dispute involves alleged Indus Waters Treaty violations.

   Key Facts:

   • Accusation: India violating Indus Waters Treaty
   • Violations: Halting data sharing, constructing hydropower projects breaching treaty provisions
   • Impact: Disrupted river flows, risk of floods and droughts
   • Pakistan's Actions: Approached World Bank, Permanent Court of Arbitration, considering involving UN Secretary-General
   • Accusation: India involved in terrorism in Pakistan, using Afghan soil
3. 2026-01-27: India Challenges Pakistan at UN over Terrorism and Kashmir
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   UPSC Angle: India challenges Pakistan at UN over terrorism and Kashmir.

   Key Facts:

   • India rejected Pakistan's remarks on Operation Sindoor at the UN on January 27, 2026.
   • India's Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Ambassador Harish Parvathaneni, made the remarks.
   • Operation Sindoor was launched in the early hours of May 7, 2025, which targeted nine terror camps in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir (PoJK) as a retaliatory response to the April 22 terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir.
   • India has placed the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance.

Genesis

Trigger

The Pahalgam terror attack on April 22, 2025, which served as the catalyst for India's shift from strategic patience to active diplomatic and military retaliation.

Why Now

India's growing frustration with multilateral forums (like the SCO) failing to acknowledge specific terror incidents while highlighting militant activities in Balochistan, which India views as a false equivalence.

Historical Context

The 1960 Indus Waters Treaty was brokered by the World Bank and is unique because it allocates entire rivers rather than just volumes of water. Historically, India has avoided using water as a lever despite previous attacks (Parliament 2001, Mumbai 2008, Uri 2016).

Key Turning Points

1. [2025-05-07] Operation Sindoor launched

   Marked the military shift from diplomacy to active retaliation following the Pahalgam attack.

   Before: India largely adhered to diplomatic protests. After: India engaged in direct military strikes on 9 terror camps.

2. [2025-07-22] India refuses SCO Joint Declaration

   India signaled it will no longer sign multilateral documents that ignore its specific security concerns.

   Before: India prioritized SCO consensus. After: India prioritized its sovereign security narrative over regional consensus.

3. [2026-01-27] IWT placed in abeyance at the UN

   The formal suspension of a 65-year-old treaty, moving the dispute into the highest level of international law.

   Before: IWT was considered 'untouchable' and separate from security. After: IWT is now a direct instrument of India's counter-terrorism policy.

Key Actors and Institutions

Key Institutions

• Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)
• Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA)
• World Bank (IWT Mediator)
• Permanent Indus Commission (PIC)

Key Concepts

Treaty Abeyance

A state of temporary suspension where the execution of a treaty is put on hold, usually due to a fundamental change in circumstances or breach of contract.

Current Fact: India officially placed the IWT in abeyance as of January 27, 2026.

Western Rivers vs. Eastern Rivers

Under the 1960 Treaty, India has exclusive rights over Eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej), while Pakistan has rights over Western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab), with limited Indian use.

Current Fact: Pakistan accused India of violating provisions on Western rivers by halting data sharing in December 2025.

Cross-Border Terrorism

The use of terrorism by one state against another, typically through proxies, which India argues nullifies the 'good faith' requirement of international treaties.

Current Fact: India's SCO refusal on July 22, 2025, was due to the omission of the Pahalgam attack in the joint declaration.

What Happens Next

Current Status

As of January 27, 2026, the Indus Waters Treaty is in formal 'abeyance', and India has rejected Pakistan's complaints at the UN regarding Operation Sindoor.

Likely Next

A legal battle at the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) or the World Bank's Neutral Expert forum, alongside potential requests for UN Security Council intervention by Pakistan.

Wildcards

A total cessation of water data sharing during the 2026 monsoon, which could lead to flood-related disasters downstream in Pakistan, forcing international mediation.

Why UPSC Cares

Syllabus Topics

• India and its neighborhood- relations
• Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India
• Linkages of organized crime with terrorism

Essay Angles

• The weaponization of transboundary water resources
• Can multilateralism survive when security concerns are ignored?
• The limits of 'Good Faith' in international law

Prelims Likely: Yes

Mains Likely: Yes

Trend Signal: rising

Exam Intelligence

Previous Year Question Connections

• Definitions of 'Eastern' and 'Western' rivers under the Indus Waters Treaty. — The arc involves Pakistan's allegations that India is violating provisions related to these specific river classifications.
• Construction parameters of the Baglihar Power Project under the IWT. — Directly relates to Pakistan's December 2025 accusation regarding India's hydropower projects breaching treaty provisions.
• International Court of Arbitration ruling on the Kishanganga water diversion. — Highlights the precedent of Pakistan approaching the PCA, which it is doing again in this arc (Dec 19, 2025).

Prelims Angles

• Exact dates: Pahalgam attack (April 22, 2025) vs. Operation Sindoor (May 7, 2025).
• The location of the 2025 SCO Defence Ministers' meeting (Qingdao, China).
• The specific rivers India has 'exclusive' rights to (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) vs. those it has restricted rights to.
• The legal status of 'treaty abeyance' under international law.

Mains Preparation

Sample Question: Analyze the impact of India's decision to place the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance on the future of transboundary water diplomacy in South Asia. Does this move signal the end of 'strategic decoupling' between trade/water and security?

Answer Structure: Intro (Define IWT and current crisis) → The Causal Link (Terrorism leading to Operation Sindoor and water suspension) → Legal Analysis (Article 51 of Constitution vs. Treaty Obligations) → Strategic Implications (Water as a deterrent, regional instability) → Way Forward (Multilateral mediation or new treaty framework).

Essay Topic: Water: The New Frontier of Warfare and Diplomacy in the 21st Century.

Textbook Connections

Key Takeaway

The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty marks the definitive end of India's policy of separating water diplomacy from cross-border terrorism.

All Events in This Story (3 items)

1. 2025-07-22 [International Relations] — India refuses to sign joint declaration at SCO Defence Ministers' meeting
   India refused to sign a joint declaration at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Defence Ministers' meeting in Qingdao, China because the document did not mention the recent Pahalgam attack but included militant activities in Balochistan. India emphasized that the SCO should criticize nations promoting cross-border terrorism. India has been a full member of SCO since 2017.
   More details

   UPSC Angle: India refuses to sign SCO declaration due to Pahalgam attack.

   Key Facts:

   • India refused to sign a joint declaration at the SCO Defence Ministers' meeting in Qingdao, China.
   • The declaration lacked mention of the Pahalgam attack but included militant activities in Balochistan.
   • India was granted observer status in 2005 and became a full member in 2017.
2. 2025-12-19 [International Relations] — India-Pakistan Relations: Water Dispute and Regional Security
   Pakistan has accused India of repeatedly violating the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty by halting data sharing and constructing hydropower projects that breach treaty provisions, disrupting river flows. Pakistan has approached the World Bank and the Permanent Court of Arbitration for dispute resolution and is considering involving the UN Secretary-General. India has also been accused of supporting terrorist groups operating from Afghanistan against Pakistan.
   More details

   UPSC Angle: India-Pakistan water dispute involves alleged Indus Waters Treaty violations.

   Key Facts:

   • Accusation: India violating Indus Waters Treaty
   • Violations: Halting data sharing, constructing hydropower projects breaching treaty provisions
   • Impact: Disrupted river flows, risk of floods and droughts
   • Pakistan's Actions: Approached World Bank, Permanent Court of Arbitration, considering involving UN Secretary-General
   • Accusation: India involved in terrorism in Pakistan, using Afghan soil
3. 2026-01-27 [International Relations] — India Challenges Pakistan at UN over Terrorism and Kashmir
   On January 27, 2026, India strongly rejected Pakistan's remarks at the UN regarding Operation Sindoor, calling them false and asserting that Pakistan has no standing to comment on Jammu and Kashmir. India's representative, Harish Parvathaneni, highlighted Pakistan's continued support for terrorism and stated that India was compelled to place the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance until Pakistan credibly ends its support for terrorism.
   More details

   UPSC Angle: India challenges Pakistan at UN over terrorism and Kashmir.

   Key Facts:

   • India rejected Pakistan's remarks on Operation Sindoor at the UN on January 27, 2026.
   • India's Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Ambassador Harish Parvathaneni, made the remarks.
   • Operation Sindoor was launched in the early hours of May 7, 2025, which targeted nine terror camps in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir (PoJK) as a retaliatory response to the April 22 terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir.
   • India has placed the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance.