This question tests your grip on the 'External Sector' chapter of the Economic Survey. While the Trade Deficit (Statement 1) and CAD (Statement 4) are static basics, Statement 2 is a classic 'Trend Trap'—grouping diverse sectors under one uniform trend. The strategy is to master the 'Direction of Trade' for top 5 commodities, not just the total volume.
How this question is built
This question can be broken into the following sub-statements.
Tap a statement sentence to jump into its detailed analysis.
Statement 1
As of 2020, were India's merchandise exports less than its merchandise imports?
Origin: Direct from books
Fairness: Straightforward
Book-answerable
From standard books
Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 17: India’s Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade > India's Foreign Trade in Recent Years > p. 502
Presence: 5/5
“• Year: 2020 - 21
(Dec); Exports (US$ Billion): 174.11; Imports (US$ Billion): 218.87; Trade Balance (i.e. deficit if figures in negative): -44.75; Remarks:
• Year: 2019-20; Exports (US$ Billion): 313.4; Imports (US$ Billion): 474.7; Trade Balance (i.e. deficit if figures in negative): -161.34; Remarks:
• Year: 2018-19; Exports (US$ Billion): 330.0; Imports (US$ Billion): 514.0; Trade Balance (i.e. deficit if figures in negative): -184.”
Why this source?
- Gives explicit annual merchandise export and import values: 2019-20 exports US$313.4 bn vs imports US$474.7 bn (exports < imports).
- Also lists 2020-21 figures showing the same pattern: exports US$174.11 bn vs imports US$218.87 bn.
- Provides the trade balance (negative), directly confirming a merchandise trade deficit in those years.
INDIA PEOPLE AND ECONOMY, TEXTBOOK IN GEOGRAPHY FOR CLASS XII (NCERT 2025 ed.) > Chapter 8: International Trade > INTERNATIONAL TRADE > p. 86
Presence: 4/5
“Can you calculate the percentage growth in 2020-21 over 1950-51? There are numerous reasons for this sharp rise in overseas trade, such as the momentum picked up by the manufacturing sectors, the liberal policies of the government and the diversification of markets. The nature of India's foreign trade has changed over the years (Table 8.1). Though there has been an increase in the total volume of import and export, the value of import continued to be higher than that of exports.”
Why this source?
- States that the value of imports continued to be higher than that of exports, summarizing the prevailing relationship between imports and exports.
- Frames the persistent nature of imports exceeding exports around the 2020–21 period, supporting the 2020 inference.
Statement 2
Between 2015 and 2020, did India's imports of iron and steel decrease?
Origin: Direct from books
Fairness: Straightforward
Book-answerable
From standard books
Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 16: Balance of Payments > 2020 > p. 487
Presence: 4/5
“• 1. With reference to the international trade of India at present, which of the following statements is/are correct? • -1. India's merchandise exports are less than its merchandise imports. • 2. India's imports of iron and steel, chemicals, fertilisers and machinery have decreased in recent years. • 3. India's exports of services are more than its imports of services. • 4. India suffers from an overall trade/current account deficit.”
Why this source?
- The text explicitly asserts that India's imports of iron and steel have decreased in recent years.
- The assertion appears in a chapter dated 2020 on Balance of Payments, providing temporal proximity to 2015–2020.
- The item is listed alongside other categories (chemicals, fertilisers, machinery) as having declined, indicating a declared trend rather than isolated data.
Statement 3
Between 2015 and 2020, did India's imports of chemicals decrease?
Origin: Weak / unclear
Fairness: Borderline / guessy
Indirect textbook clues
Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 16: Balance of Payments > 2020 > p. 487
Strength: 5/5
“• 1. With reference to the international trade of India at present, which of the following statements is/are correct? • -1. India's merchandise exports are less than its merchandise imports. • 2. India's imports of iron and steel, chemicals, fertilisers and machinery have decreased in recent years. • 3. India's exports of services are more than its imports of services. • 4. India suffers from an overall trade/current account deficit.”
Why relevant
Explicit claim in a textbook chapter that 'India's imports of iron and steel, chemicals, fertilisers and machinery have decreased in recent years' — a general statement about import trends.
How to extend
A student could treat this as a hypothesis and check official commodity-wise import series (e.g., Commerce Ministry or Economic Survey tables) for chemicals from 2015 to 2020 to verify direction and magnitude.
Geography of India ,Majid Husain, (McGrawHill 9th ed.) > Chapter 12: Transport, Communications and Trade > 4. Change in Import > p. 49
Strength: 4/5
“Earlier India used to import almost all types of machinery, precision instruments, surgical equipments, automobiles, and electrical goods. Now India is exporting all sorts of machinery including vehicles, electronic, and chemical goods, and”
Why relevant
Notes that India moved from importing many goods to exporting 'electronic, and chemical goods', implying domestic chemical production/competitiveness improved which could reduce chemical imports.
How to extend
Compare export growth in chemical items and domestic production growth (industrial statistics) against import values for 2015–2020 to infer whether rising domestic supply could explain lower imports.
Geography of India ,Majid Husain, (McGrawHill 9th ed.) > Chapter 11: Industries > Chemical Industry > p. 49
Strength: 4/5
“The beginning of the Indian chemical industry may be traced back to 1901 when the pharmaceutical plant was established near Kolkata. Since then there has been steady progress in the development of the industry. The industry recoded a tremendous progress after independence. The main chemical industries include (i)Sulphuric Acid, (ii)Nitric Acid, (iii) Soda-Ash, (iv) Chlorine, (v) Calcium carbide, (vi) Petrochemicals, (vii) Fertiliser Industry, (viii) Drugs and Pharmaceutical (ix) Paper and Pulp, (x)Pesticides, (xi) Dyestuffs, (xii)Paints and Varnishes, (xiii) Leather industry, (xiv) Glass industry, etc. Some of the important chemical industries have been described in the following:”
Why relevant
Describes steady progress and post‑independence expansion of the chemical industry and lists many sub‑sectors, suggesting expanding domestic capacity that could substitute imports.
How to extend
Use this industry expansion idea plus production data by sub‑sector (petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, fertilizers) to assess whether increased output plausibly reduced import dependence during 2015–2020.
INDIA PEOPLE AND ECONOMY, TEXTBOOK IN GEOGRAPHY FOR CLASS XII (NCERT 2025 ed.) > Chapter 8: International Trade > Changing Patterns of the Composition of India's Import > p. 88
Strength: 3/5
“It is also noticed that the, import of capital goods maintained a steady decline. Import of food and allied products declined. Other major items of India's import include pearls, precious and semi-precious stones, gold and silver, non-metal ferrous metals. The detail of Indian imports of some principal commodities during 2021-22 have been given in Table 8.5. • Based on Table 8.5, few activities may be undertaken: Arrange the items in ascending or descending order and write the names of the first five major items of India's import list of 2021-22. Why does India import edible oil in spite of being an agriculturally rich country?”
Why relevant
Reports changing composition of imports with declines in some categories (capital goods, food and allied products) showing the textbooks track item‑wise shifts in import patterns.
How to extend
Apply the same approach used for those categories: obtain the textbooks' referenced tables (e.g., Table 8.5) or official import commodity tables to examine the chemical category trend 2015–2020.
INDIA PEOPLE AND ECONOMY, TEXTBOOK IN GEOGRAPHY FOR CLASS XII (NCERT 2025 ed.) > Chapter 8: International Trade > Changing Pattern of ttern ofttern of the Composition of India's Expor s Exports > p. 87
Strength: 3/5
“Source : http://commerce.nic.in/publications/annual-report - 2010-11 and Economic Survey 2016-17, 2022-23 Draw bar diagram to show the trends of exports of all items given in the table. Use pen/pencil of different colours. Source : Economic Survey 2016-17 and 2022-23 The composition of commodities in India's international trade has been undergoing a change over the years. In export the share of agriculture and allied products and manufactured goods have decreased, whereas, share from crude petroleum and products and other commodities have increased. The share of ore and minerals have largely remained constant over the years from 2015-16 to 2021-22. The decline in traditional items is largely due to the tough international competition.”
Why relevant
Discusses changing composition of international trade over recent years and references Economic Survey / Commerce data sources — points to where reliable time series by commodity are published.
How to extend
Follow the referenced sources (Economic Survey, Commerce annual reports) to retrieve chemical import time series for 2015–2020 and judge whether imports decreased.
Statement 4
Between 2015 and 2020, did India's imports of fertilisers decrease?
Origin: Weak / unclear
Fairness: Borderline / guessy
Indirect textbook clues
Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 16: Balance of Payments > 2020 > p. 487
Strength: 5/5
“• 1. With reference to the international trade of India at present, which of the following statements is/are correct? • -1. India's merchandise exports are less than its merchandise imports. • 2. India's imports of iron and steel, chemicals, fertilisers and machinery have decreased in recent years. • 3. India's exports of services are more than its imports of services. • 4. India suffers from an overall trade/current account deficit.”
Why relevant
Explicitly asserts that India's imports of fertilisers (along with iron/steel, chemicals, machinery) 'have decreased in recent years', suggesting a downward import trend.
How to extend
A student could interpret 'recent years' to include 2015–2020 and then check official trade statistics (e.g., annual customs or DGCIS data) for 2015–2020 to confirm the timing and magnitude of any decrease.
Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 9: Agriculture > FERTILISERS > p. 303
Strength: 4/5
“fertilisers at affordable prices for maximising agricultural production. Department also administers 9 fertiliser Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs). • Present status of fertiliser production and consumption in India: • In India, mainly three variants of fertilisers are produced at present: urea, diammonium phosphate (DAP) and complex fertilisers. • Urea (for nitrogen) is the most produced (86%), most consumed (74%) and most imported (74%) among all fertilisers in India. • In the case of phosphatic fertilisers, 56.5 per cent indigenous capacity has been developed to meet domestic requirements At present, there are 31 urea manufacturing units in the country, out of which 28 urea units use Natural Gas (using domestic gas/ LNG/CBM) and remaining 3 urea units use Naphtha as feedstock.”
Why relevant
Notes that urea is the most imported fertiliser (accounts for 74% of fertiliser imports), tying overall fertiliser import volumes closely to urea supply/demand.
How to extend
A student could focus on urea-specific production and import data for 2015–2020 (domestic urea production changes, policy shifts, or import records) to infer whether total fertiliser imports fell.
Geography of India ,Majid Husain, (McGrawHill 9th ed.) > Chapter 11: Industries > FERTILISER INDUSTRY > p. 49
Strength: 4/5
“Fertiliser industry has made a tremendous progress after independence. The first fertiliser plant was established in Sindri India in 1906. The five decades of planning and development of fertiliser industry have brought India to the frontline of fertiliser producing countries. India today is the third largest producer of nitrogenous fertilisers in the world after China and the USA. The domestic production of urea in the year 2017–18 was about 24.02 MT which is”
Why relevant
Provides a datapoint for domestic urea production in 2017–18 (~24.02 MT), which affects import dependence—higher domestic production can reduce imports.
How to extend
Compare this production figure with domestic consumption for 2017–18 and adjacent years (2015–2020) to estimate whether increased production could have driven import declines.
Geography of India ,Majid Husain, (McGrawHill 9th ed.) > Chapter 11: Industries > Table 11.6 > p. 54
Strength: 3/5
“Consumption, Production, and Imports of Fertilisers (lakh tonnes) • Year: 2000–01; Consumption: 167.02; Production: 147.04; Imports: 20.91 • Year: 2007–08; Consumption: 228.00; Production: 190.00; Imports: 77.56 Source: India, 2010, p. 667. Aonla: Situated in the district of Bareilly, the Aonla Chemical Fertiliser Plant was established by the Indian Farmers Fertilisers Co-operative Limited. The plant was commissioned in 1974. It meets the requirements of the farmers of the Rohilkhand Division of Uttar Pradesh. Hazira: Situated in the state of Gujarat, Hazira is a modern chemical fertiliser plant. The smelting in this plant is done with the help of natural gas obtained from the Bombay High.”
Why relevant
Shows historical import figures for earlier periods (2000–01 and 2007–08) and demonstrates that imports can change substantially over time, establishing that import trends are variable.
How to extend
Use the pattern of past variability as a reason to examine year-by-year import series (2015–2020) rather than assuming a constant trend; check whether the post-2007 pattern reversed or continued.
Statement 5
Between 2015 and 2020, did India's imports of machinery decrease?
Origin: Weak / unclear
Fairness: Borderline / guessy
Indirect textbook clues
Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 16: Balance of Payments > 2020 > p. 487
Strength: 5/5
“• 1. With reference to the international trade of India at present, which of the following statements is/are correct? • -1. India's merchandise exports are less than its merchandise imports. • 2. India's imports of iron and steel, chemicals, fertilisers and machinery have decreased in recent years. • 3. India's exports of services are more than its imports of services. • 4. India suffers from an overall trade/current account deficit.”
Why relevant
Explicit textbook claim that 'India's imports of ... machinery have decreased in recent years' — a direct statement about a downward trend in machinery imports.
How to extend
A student could treat 'recent years' as overlapping 2015–2020 and check official import time‑series (e.g., BOT tables) for machinery to confirm the timing and magnitude.
INDIA PEOPLE AND ECONOMY, TEXTBOOK IN GEOGRAPHY FOR CLASS XII (NCERT 2025 ed.) > Chapter 8: International Trade > Changing Patterns of the Composition of India's Import > p. 88
Strength: 5/5
“It is also noticed that the, import of capital goods maintained a steady decline. Import of food and allied products declined. Other major items of India's import include pearls, precious and semi-precious stones, gold and silver, non-metal ferrous metals. The detail of Indian imports of some principal commodities during 2021-22 have been given in Table 8.5. • Based on Table 8.5, few activities may be undertaken: Arrange the items in ascending or descending order and write the names of the first five major items of India's import list of 2021-22. Why does India import edible oil in spite of being an agriculturally rich country?”
Why relevant
States that 'import of capital goods maintained a steady decline' — capital goods commonly include machinery, so it supplies a pattern of falling capital/machinery imports.
How to extend
Map 'capital goods' to the trade category for machinery and compare annual capital‑goods import figures for 2015–2020 from government trade data to test the claim.
Geography of India ,Majid Husain, (McGrawHill 9th ed.) > Chapter 12: Transport, Communications and Trade > 4. Change in Import > p. 49
Strength: 4/5
“Earlier India used to import almost all types of machinery, precision instruments, surgical equipments, automobiles, and electrical goods. Now India is exporting all sorts of machinery including vehicles, electronic, and chemical goods, and”
Why relevant
Notes a structural shift: earlier India imported 'almost all types of machinery' but now is 'exporting all sorts of machinery' — implying reduced reliance on machinery imports over time.
How to extend
Use this qualitative shift plus export/import series (or a world map of trading partners) to see if machinery import volumes fell while engineering/machinery exports rose between 2015 and 2020.
Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 16: Balance of Payments > 2.1. Balance of Visibles or Balance of Trade (BOT) > p. 472
Strength: 4/5
“Indian Economy If exports are >imports, then there occurs trade surplus. If exports are <imports, then there occurs trade deficit. If exports = imports, then there is trade equilibrium. Note: Export and import of even capital goods like plant and machinery is included under BOT and not under capital account. Note: As per IMF manual, the value of imports and the value of exports should be considered on Free-On-Board (FOB) basis.<br>However due to data constraint in the formular pump - feller rejection ble for shippin. However, due to data constraints, in India, imports are considered on CIF amount, i.e., cost + insurance + freight.”
Why relevant
Clarifies that 'plant and machinery' are recorded under the Balance of Trade (BOT) and notes measurement conventions (FOB/CIF), which matters when comparing import values over years.
How to extend
A student should ensure they compare like‑with‑like (CIF vs FOB) across 2015–2020 BOT data to avoid misleading conclusions about increases/decreases in machinery imports.
Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 1: National Income > IMPORTANT FACTS BASED ON ECONOMIC SURVEY 2020-21 > p. 17
Strength: 3/5
“Sector | Growth rate at constant prices in 2019-20 (as per PE) | Growth rate at constant prices in 2020-21 (as per AE) | Remarks • Primary Sector | 4% | 3.4% | Decreased • Secondary Sector | 2.5\%* | -9.6% | Decreased • Tertiary Sector | 6.9\%* | -8.8% | Decreased • Overall | 3.9\% | -7.2\% | Decreased Primary Sector is set to cushion the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Indian economy in 2020-21 with a positive growth of 3.4 per cent in both Q1 and Q2 of FY 2020-21. In the Secondary Sector, both manufacturing as well as mining & quarrying sector saw a negative growth.”
Why relevant
Shows the secondary sector (which includes manufacturing and capital goods activity) contracted sharply in 2020‑21, indicating potential disruptions to trade flows including machinery imports in 2020.
How to extend
Combine the sectoral downturn (especially in 2020) with annual import data to determine whether machinery imports fell in 2020 as part of the broader manufacturing slump.
Statement 6
As of 2020, were India's exports of services greater than its imports of services?
Origin: Web / Current Affairs
Fairness: CA heavy
Web-answerable
"Exports (receipts) As per the latest press release by RBI dated 15th April 2020, exports in February 2020 were USD 17.73 billion (Rs. 1, 26,713.37 crore) registering a positive growth of 6.88 per cent in dollar terms, vis-à-vis February 2019. The estimated value of services export for March 2020* is USD 17.69 billion. Imports (payments) As per the latest press release by RBI dated 15th April 2020, imports in February 2020 were USD 11.07"
Why this source?
- The RBI-based release cited reports services exports in February 2020 at USD 17.73 billion (and March 2020 est. USD 17.69 billion).
- The same source reports services imports (payments) in February 2020 at USD 11.07 billion.
- These figures show services exports exceeded services imports in the cited 2020 data.
Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 16: Balance of Payments > 2020 > p. 487
Strength: 3/5
“• 1. With reference to the international trade of India at present, which of the following statements is/are correct? • -1. India's merchandise exports are less than its merchandise imports. • 2. India's imports of iron and steel, chemicals, fertilisers and machinery have decreased in recent years. • 3. India's exports of services are more than its imports of services. • 4. India suffers from an overall trade/current account deficit.”
Why relevant
This MCQ lists as one candidate statement that 'India's exports of services are more than its imports of services', signalling this is a debated/focus point in balance-of-payments context.
How to extend
A student could treat this as a hypothesis to test against official BOP/current-account data for 2020 to confirm or refute it.
Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 14: Service Sector > NTRODUCTION > p. 424
Strength: 4/5
“The overall contribution of service sector to the Indian economy has witnessed accelerating growth. Following points may justify the same: • The sector accounts for 54.3 per cent of the Gross Value Added (GVA) and GVA growth \bullet(as per 2020-21 Advance Estimates).\ • Talking about Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), service sector brings around 54 per cent \Phiof the total FDI inflows.\ • About 38 per cent of the total exports of India are owed to service sector of the country.\ • In around 15 States, this sector contributes more than 50 per cent of total Gross State \bulletValue Added. Let us now discuss in detail some of the major service sectors:”
Why relevant
States that about 38% of India's total exports are owed to the service sector, indicating services form a large export component.
How to extend
Combine this share with known total export/import values (from trade data) or recall that services are a large export item to infer whether services exports might exceed services imports.
Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 14: Service Sector > TOURISM SECTOR > p. 428
Strength: 4/5
“• India recorded a declining growth rate in the arrival of foreign tourists in 2020-21.• The growth in the foreign exchange earnings has also consequently declined.• For the period January to June 2020, India's foreign exchange earnings from tourism stood at $6.16 billion with foreign tourist arrival of 2.46 million (Economic Survey, 2020 - 21).• India's rank in World Tourism Receipts improved to 12th in 2019 as per provisional data”
Why relevant
Reports a decline in foreign tourist arrivals and tourism foreign-exchange earnings in 2020, indicating a pandemic-driven fall in a major services export (tourism).
How to extend
A student could factor in COVID-19 impacts on tourism (and other services) in 2020 to adjust expectations about services exports relative to imports for that year.
Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 16: Balance of Payments > What level of CAD is desired or sustainable? > p. 474
Strength: 3/5
“As per Economic Survey 2020-21, 'Given the trend in imports of both goods and services, it is expected that India will end with an annual current account surplus of at least 2 per cent of GDP after a period of 17 years'.”
Why relevant
Economic Survey note mentions trends in imports of both goods and services when discussing an expected current account surplus for 2020-21, tying services trade movements into overall CA outcomes.
How to extend
Use the implication that services import/export trends materially affect the current account — compare reported services trade balances for 2020 with goods balances to judge whether services were net exporters or importers.
Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 12: Indian Industry > CHAMPION SECTORS IN INDIA In 2020, GOI identified champion sectors in both manufacturing and services sectors (total 27), > p. 402
Strength: 2/5
“New and Renewable Energy • 8. Communication Services • 9. Construction and Related Engineering Services • 10. Environmental Services • 11. Financial Services • 12. Education Services • 7. Legal Services • A dedicated fund of ₹5000 crore has been proposed to be established to support initiatives for sectoral Action Plans of the Champion Sectors. • This initiative aims to raise the share of India's services sector in global services exports from 3.3 per cent in 2015 to 4.2 per cent in 2022. • The share of services in GVA was about 5.3 per cent for India in 2015-16 (61% including construction services) 12.28 Indian Economy”
Why relevant
Government initiative aims to raise India's share in global services exports and cites past global-share figures, implying policy focus on increasing services exports.
How to extend
Recognize that services exports were a policy priority and measurable share exists; a student could look up the stated baseline shares and 2020 outcomes to assess whether exports exceeded imports.
Statement 7
As of 2020, did India have an overall trade deficit when goods and services are combined?
Origin: Web / Current Affairs
Fairness: CA heavy
Web-answerable
"Overall trade balance: Taking merchandise and services together, overall trade deficit for April-March 2019-20* is estimated at USD 70.16 billion"
Why this source?
- Provides separate figures for merchandise (goods) deficit and net services exports for the 2019-20 period including March 2020.
- Explicitly states the combined result: an overall trade deficit when merchandise and services are taken together for April–March 2019–20.
- Values given show services surplus did not fully offset the larger merchandise deficit, yielding a net deficit (USD 70.16 billion).
Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 17: India’s Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade > India's Foreign Trade in Recent Years > p. 502
Strength: 5/5
“• Year: 2020 - 21
(Dec); Exports (US$ Billion): 174.11; Imports (US$ Billion): 218.87; Trade Balance (i.e. deficit if figures in negative): -44.75; Remarks:
• Year: 2019-20; Exports (US$ Billion): 313.4; Imports (US$ Billion): 474.7; Trade Balance (i.e. deficit if figures in negative): -161.34; Remarks:
• Year: 2018-19; Exports (US$ Billion): 330.0; Imports (US$ Billion): 514.0; Trade Balance (i.e. deficit if figures in negative): -184.”
Why relevant
Gives numeric annual export and import totals (and trade balance) for 2019-20 and 2020-21 showing large goods trade deficits in those years.
How to extend
A student can combine these goods deficit magnitudes with any estimate of net services surplus for 2020 to judge whether the services surplus could offset the goods deficit.
Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 16: Balance of Payments > 2.1. Balance of Visibles or Balance of Trade (BOT) > p. 472
Strength: 4/5
“Indian Economy If exports are >imports, then there occurs trade surplus. If exports are <imports, then there occurs trade deficit. If exports = imports, then there is trade equilibrium. Note: Export and import of even capital goods like plant and machinery is included under BOT and not under capital account. Note: As per IMF manual, the value of imports and the value of exports should be considered on Free-On-Board (FOB) basis.<br>However due to data constraint in the formular pump - feller rejection ble for shippin. However, due to data constraints, in India, imports are considered on CIF amount, i.e., cost + insurance + freight.”
Why relevant
Defines trade surplus/deficit rules (exports>imports → surplus; exports<imports → deficit) and notes measurement conventions (FOB/CIF).
How to extend
Apply this rule to reported goods and services export/import figures to determine whether combined flows yield a net deficit or surplus.
Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 14: Service Sector > NTRODUCTION > p. 424
Strength: 4/5
“The overall contribution of service sector to the Indian economy has witnessed accelerating growth. Following points may justify the same: • The sector accounts for 54.3 per cent of the Gross Value Added (GVA) and GVA growth \bullet(as per 2020-21 Advance Estimates).\ • Talking about Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), service sector brings around 54 per cent \Phiof the total FDI inflows.\ • About 38 per cent of the total exports of India are owed to service sector of the country.\ • In around 15 States, this sector contributes more than 50 per cent of total Gross State \bulletValue Added. Let us now discuss in detail some of the major service sectors:”
Why relevant
States the service sector accounts for about 38% of India's total exports (and is a large contributor to the economy).
How to extend
Use the prominence of services exports as an indicator that services could provide a significant surplus — compare an estimated services surplus (from external sources) against the goods deficit in 2020.
Macroeconomics (NCERT class XII 2025 ed.) > Chapter 6: Open Economy Macroeconomics > Errors and Omissions > p. 89
Strength: 4/5
“It is difficult to record all international transactions accurately. Thus, we have a third element of BoP (apart from the current and capital accounts) called errors and omissions which reflects this. Table 6.1 provides a sample of Balance of Payments for India. Note in this table, there is a trade deficit and current account deficit but a capital account surplus. As a result, BOP is in balance. • BoP Deficit: Overall Balance < 0; Balanced BoP: Overall Balance = 0; BoP Surplus: Overall Balance > 0 • BoP Deficit: Reserve Change > 0; Balanced BoP: Reserve Change = 0; BoP Surplus: Reserve Change < 0”
Why relevant
Explains that balance of payments/current account considerations include trade deficits and that capital flows/errors can offset them — distinguishing trade (goods+services) from overall BoP outcomes.
How to extend
A student can separate the question of trade (goods+services) deficit from overall BoP by using this rule, focusing on combined goods+services flows rather than capital account adjustments.
Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 16: Balance of Payments > What level of CAD is desired or sustainable? > p. 474
Strength: 3/5
“As per Economic Survey 2020-21, 'Given the trend in imports of both goods and services, it is expected that India will end with an annual current account surplus of at least 2 per cent of GDP after a period of 17 years'.”
Why relevant
Quotes Economic Survey projection that, given import and services trends, India was expected to end with an annual current account surplus in 2020-21.
How to extend
Use this projection as a clue that net services and other current account items may have been large enough to offset goods deficits around 2020, prompting targeted checking of 2020 combined goods+services balances.
Statement 8
As of 2020, did India have a current account deficit?
Origin: Direct from books
Fairness: Straightforward
Book-answerable
From standard books
Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 16: Balance of Payments > Balance of Current Account = Balance of Visible + Balance of Invisible > p. 473
Presence: 5/5
“Balance of Current Account = Balance of Visibles + Balance of Invisibles
Particular | 2019 - 20 | 2020-21 (Apr-Sep)
• Col1: Balance of Trade (A); Present Status of CAD in India: -1,57,506; (in US$ Million): -25,552
• Col1: Balance of Invisibles (B); Present Status of CAD in India: +132,850; (in US$ Million): +60,270
• Col1: Current Account Balance (A + B); Present Status of CAD in India: -24,656; (in US$ Million): +34,718
• Col1: Current Account Deficit (as a % of GDP); Present Status of CAD in India: -1.9%; (in US$ Million): +3.1\% (H1)”
Why this source?
- Provides a numeric current account balance for 2019–20 as negative (−24,656 US$ million).
- Gives current account deficit as a percent of GDP for 2019–20 (−1.9%), directly indicating a deficit in that year.
Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 16: Balance of Payments > TWIN DEFICIT HYPOTHESIS > p. 486
Presence: 3/5
“Economies that have both a fiscal deficit and current account deficit are referred to as having 'twin deficits'. As per twin deficit hypothesis, some economists believe that a large budget deficit is correlated to a large current account deficit. For example - the United States and India have experienced both the deficits year after year. The opposite scenario featuring a fiscal surplus and current account surplus is generally viewed as much better financial position”
Why this source?
- Identifies India as an example of a country that has experienced current account deficits repeatedly.
- Links the concept of current account deficit to familiar macro contexts (twin deficit discussion), supporting interpretation of negative balances as deficits.
Macroeconomics (NCERT class XII 2025 ed.) > Chapter 6: Open Economy Macroeconomics > Errors and Omissions > p. 89
Presence: 3/5
“It is difficult to record all international transactions accurately. Thus, we have a third element of BoP (apart from the current and capital accounts) called errors and omissions which reflects this. Table 6.1 provides a sample of Balance of Payments for India. Note in this table, there is a trade deficit and current account deficit but a capital account surplus. As a result, BOP is in balance. • BoP Deficit: Overall Balance < 0; Balanced BoP: Overall Balance = 0; BoP Surplus: Overall Balance > 0 • BoP Deficit: Reserve Change > 0; Balanced BoP: Reserve Change = 0; BoP Surplus: Reserve Change < 0”
Why this source?
- Explains a sample BoP table where a trade deficit and current account deficit coexist with a capital account surplus.
- Provides context that a negative current account is characterized as a deficit within balance of payments accounting.
Pattern takeaway:
UPSC frequently uses the 'Grouped Trend' format (Statement 2). They list 3-4 distinct sectors (Steel, Chemicals, Machinery) and apply a single verb ('decreased'). This is almost always false because economic trends rarely align perfectly across diverse sectors.
How you should have studied
- Bullet 1. [THE VERDICT]: Trap (Statement 2) + Economic Survey (Vol 2, External Sector Chapter).
- Bullet 2. [THE CONCEPTUAL TRIGGER]: Balance of Payments > Current Account > Composition of Trade (Merchandise vs Services).
- Bullet 3. [THE HORIZONTAL EXPANSION]: Memorize Top 3 Imports (Crude, Gold, Electronics) & Top 3 Exports (Petroleum Products, Gems/Jewellery, Drug Formulations). Know the Net Services Surplus (~$80bn+) and Net Remittances (~$80bn+).
- Bullet 4. [THE STRATEGIC METACOGNITION]: Do not memorize absolute numbers ($ billion). Memorize the 'Trend Line' (Rising/Falling/Fluctuating) over the last 5 years for the top 5 commodity groups.
Concept hooks from this question
👉 Trade balance: surplus vs deficit
💡 The insight
Comparing merchandise exports and imports determines whether a country has a trade surplus or trade deficit.
High-yield for UPSC economics and current affairs: understanding trade balance is essential for questions on balance of payments, fiscal policy and external sector health. It connects to current account analysis and policy responses to deficits, and enables data-interpretation questions that ask whether trade is in surplus/deficit.
📚 Reading List :
- Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 16: Balance of Payments > 2.1. Balance of Visibles or Balance of Trade (BOT) > p. 472
- Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 17: India’s Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade > India's Foreign Trade in Recent Years > p. 502
🔗 Anchor: "As of 2020, were India's merchandise exports less than its merchandise imports?"
👉 FOB vs CIF valuation in trade statistics
💡 The insight
The valuation basis (FOB for exports, CIF for imports in India) affects reported export/import figures and thus the measured trade balance.
Important for accurately interpreting trade data and official statistics in UPSC papers; it links to methodology in balance of payments and can change apparent deficits/surpluses. Mastery helps answer questions on measurement differences and their policy implications.
📚 Reading List :
- Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 16: Balance of Payments > 2.1. Balance of Visibles or Balance of Trade (BOT) > p. 472
- Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 17: India’s Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade > India's Foreign Trade in Recent Years > p. 502
🔗 Anchor: "As of 2020, were India's merchandise exports less than its merchandise imports?"
👉 Recent pattern: imports exceeding exports (merchandise trade deficit)
💡 The insight
Recent years' data show imports higher than exports, producing a persistent merchandise trade deficit relevant to 2020.
Directly relevant to current affairs and economy GS papers: helps answer questions on trade trends, causes of deficits, and implications for forex reserves and macro policy. Enables trend-analysis and cause-effect answer patterns in mains and interview.
📚 Reading List :
- Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 17: India’s Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade > India's Foreign Trade in Recent Years > p. 502
- INDIA PEOPLE AND ECONOMY, TEXTBOOK IN GEOGRAPHY FOR CLASS XII (NCERT 2025 ed.) > Chapter 8: International Trade > INTERNATIONAL TRADE > p. 86
🔗 Anchor: "As of 2020, were India's merchandise exports less than its merchandise imports?"
👉 Interpreting trade trend statements ('recent years')
💡 The insight
Identifying whether a declared trend (e.g., 'imports have decreased') applies to a specific interval requires understanding how publications date and phrase 'recent years'.
High-yield for UPSC: many questions ask about direction of trade trends rather than exact figures. Mastering how to read temporal qualifiers helps answer trend questions and link them to macro frameworks like Balance of Payments and policy shifts; it also aids critical reading of reports and exam passages.
📚 Reading List :
- Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 16: Balance of Payments > 2020 > p. 487
🔗 Anchor: "Between 2015 and 2020, did India's imports of iron and steel decrease?"
👉 Composition of India's imports
💡 The insight
Knowing which categories (iron & steel, chemicals, machinery, capital goods, food) rise or fall clarifies statements about aggregate import movements.
Important for answering questions on trade structure and policy implications; connects to topics like industrial capacity, import substitution, and external sector balances. Enables candidates to reason from sectoral shifts to macro outcomes (e.g., trade deficit changes).
📚 Reading List :
- Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 16: Balance of Payments > 2020 > p. 487
- INDIA PEOPLE AND ECONOMY, TEXTBOOK IN GEOGRAPHY FOR CLASS XII (NCERT 2025 ed.) > Chapter 8: International Trade > Changing Patterns of the Composition of India's Import > p. 88
🔗 Anchor: "Between 2015 and 2020, did India's imports of iron and steel decrease?"
👉 Domestic production vs import trends in metals
💡 The insight
Domestic steel production growth and simultaneous reduction in imports are related concepts for explaining trade behaviour in iron and steel.
Useful for questions that ask for causes of changing import patterns—linking production capacity, export opportunities, and import dependence. Helps integrate industrial policy, resource endowments, and international trade analysis in answers.
📚 Reading List :
- Geography of India ,Majid Husain, (McGrawHill 9th ed.) > Chapter 11: Industries > IRON AND STEEL INDUSTRY > p. 28
- Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 16: Balance of Payments > 2020 > p. 487
🔗 Anchor: "Between 2015 and 2020, did India's imports of iron and steel decrease?"
👉 Changing composition of India's imports
💡 The insight
Understanding which commodity groups rose or fell in the import basket is essential to judge whether chemical imports decreased.
High-yield for UPSC: questions often ask trends in composition of trade rather than absolute totals. Mastering this helps answer linked topics like balance of payments, sectoral vulnerability, and policy responses (e.g., import substitution). Enables pattern-based questions on which categories (capital goods, food, minerals, chemicals) expanded or contracted.
📚 Reading List :
- INDIA PEOPLE AND ECONOMY, TEXTBOOK IN GEOGRAPHY FOR CLASS XII (NCERT 2025 ed.) > Chapter 8: International Trade > Changing Patterns of the Composition of India's Import > p. 88
- INDIA PEOPLE AND ECONOMY, TEXTBOOK IN GEOGRAPHY FOR CLASS XII (NCERT 2025 ed.) > Chapter 8: International Trade > Changing Pattern of ttern ofttern of the Composition of India's Expor s Exports > p. 87
🔗 Anchor: "Between 2015 and 2020, did India's imports of chemicals decrease?"
Net Investment Income: While Services and Transfers (Remittances) are positive, the 'Investment Income' component of the Current Account is consistently NEGATIVE (India pays more interest/dividends to foreigners than it receives).
The 'List Contamination' Rule: Statement 2 lists four distinct categories (Iron & Steel, Chemicals, Fertilisers, Machinery). In a complex economy, it is statistically improbable that ALL four diverse sectors followed the exact same downward trend simultaneously. If even one (e.g., Machinery or Fertilizers) increased or remained flat, the statement breaks. Eliminate it.
Economy → International Relations: A high Trade Deficit with China (approx $50-60bn) drives policies like PLI (Production Linked Incentive) and RCEP withdrawal to reduce 'Import Dependence' and enhance 'Strategic Autonomy'.