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With reference to the international trade of India at present, which of the following statements is/are correct ? 1. India's merchandise exports are less than its merchandise imports. 2. India's imports of iron and steel, chemicals, fertilisers and machinery have decreased in recent years. 3. India's exports of services are more than its imports of services .- 4. India suffers from an overall trade/current account deficit. Select the correct answer using the code given below :
Explanation
The correct answer is Option 4 (1, 3, and 4 only). Based on India's current economic profile and Trade Statistics, the analysis is as follows:
- Statement 1 is correct: India consistently faces a merchandise trade deficit. Our expenditure on importing physical goods (especially crude oil, electronic goods, and gold) significantly exceeds the revenue generated from exporting them.
- Statement 3 is correct: India maintains a surplus in the services sector. Driven by IT, software services, and business outsourcing, our service exports consistently remain higher than our service imports.
- Statement 4 is correct: Although the services surplus helps offset the merchandise deficit, it is usually insufficient to bridge the gap completely. Consequently, India typically records an overall trade deficit and a Current Account Deficit (CAD).
- Statement 2 is incorrect: Imports of essential industrial inputs like chemicals, machinery, and fertilizers have generally increased or fluctuated due to domestic demand and infrastructure growth, rather than showing a consistent decrease.
Therefore, statements 1, 3, and 4 accurately reflect the current dynamics of India's international trade.
PROVENANCE & STUDY PATTERN
Guest previewThis question tests your grip on the 'External Sector' chapter of the Economic Survey. While the Trade Deficit (Statement 1) and CAD (Statement 4) are static basics, Statement 2 is a classic 'Trend Trap'โgrouping diverse sectors under one uniform trend. The strategy is to master the 'Direction of Trade' for top 5 commodities, not just the total volume.
This question can be broken into the following sub-statements. Tap a statement sentence to jump into its detailed analysis.
- Statement 1: As of 2020, were India's merchandise exports less than its merchandise imports?
- Statement 2: Between 2015 and 2020, did India's imports of iron and steel decrease?
- Statement 3: Between 2015 and 2020, did India's imports of chemicals decrease?
- Statement 4: Between 2015 and 2020, did India's imports of fertilisers decrease?
- Statement 5: Between 2015 and 2020, did India's imports of machinery decrease?
- Statement 6: As of 2020, were India's exports of services greater than its imports of services?
- Statement 7: As of 2020, did India have an overall trade deficit when goods and services are combined?
- Statement 8: As of 2020, did India have a current account deficit?
- Gives explicit annual merchandise export and import values: 2019-20 exports US$313.4 bn vs imports US$474.7 bn (exports < imports).
- Also lists 2020-21 figures showing the same pattern: exports US$174.11 bn vs imports US$218.87 bn.
- Provides the trade balance (negative), directly confirming a merchandise trade deficit in those years.
- States that the value of imports continued to be higher than that of exports, summarizing the prevailing relationship between imports and exports.
- Frames the persistent nature of imports exceeding exports around the 2020โ21 period, supporting the 2020 inference.
- The text explicitly asserts that India's imports of iron and steel have decreased in recent years.
- The assertion appears in a chapter dated 2020 on Balance of Payments, providing temporal proximity to 2015โ2020.
- The item is listed alongside other categories (chemicals, fertilisers, machinery) as having declined, indicating a declared trend rather than isolated data.
This statement analysis shows book citations, web sources and indirect clues. The first statement (S1) is open for preview.
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Explicit claim in a textbook chapter that 'India's imports of iron and steel, chemicals, fertilisers and machinery have decreased in recent years' โ a general statement about import trends.
A student could treat this as a hypothesis and check official commodity-wise import series (e.g., Commerce Ministry or Economic Survey tables) for chemicals from 2015 to 2020 to verify direction and magnitude.
Notes that India moved from importing many goods to exporting 'electronic, and chemical goods', implying domestic chemical production/competitiveness improved which could reduce chemical imports.
Compare export growth in chemical items and domestic production growth (industrial statistics) against import values for 2015โ2020 to infer whether rising domestic supply could explain lower imports.
Describes steady progress and postโindependence expansion of the chemical industry and lists many subโsectors, suggesting expanding domestic capacity that could substitute imports.
Use this industry expansion idea plus production data by subโsector (petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, fertilizers) to assess whether increased output plausibly reduced import dependence during 2015โ2020.
Reports changing composition of imports with declines in some categories (capital goods, food and allied products) showing the textbooks track itemโwise shifts in import patterns.
Apply the same approach used for those categories: obtain the textbooks' referenced tables (e.g., Table 8.5) or official import commodity tables to examine the chemical category trend 2015โ2020.
Discusses changing composition of international trade over recent years and references Economic Survey / Commerce data sources โ points to where reliable time series by commodity are published.
Follow the referenced sources (Economic Survey, Commerce annual reports) to retrieve chemical import time series for 2015โ2020 and judge whether imports decreased.
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Explicitly asserts that India's imports of fertilisers (along with iron/steel, chemicals, machinery) 'have decreased in recent years', suggesting a downward import trend.
A student could interpret 'recent years' to include 2015โ2020 and then check official trade statistics (e.g., annual customs or DGCIS data) for 2015โ2020 to confirm the timing and magnitude of any decrease.
Notes that urea is the most imported fertiliser (accounts for 74% of fertiliser imports), tying overall fertiliser import volumes closely to urea supply/demand.
A student could focus on urea-specific production and import data for 2015โ2020 (domestic urea production changes, policy shifts, or import records) to infer whether total fertiliser imports fell.
Provides a datapoint for domestic urea production in 2017โ18 (~24.02 MT), which affects import dependenceโhigher domestic production can reduce imports.
Compare this production figure with domestic consumption for 2017โ18 and adjacent years (2015โ2020) to estimate whether increased production could have driven import declines.
Shows historical import figures for earlier periods (2000โ01 and 2007โ08) and demonstrates that imports can change substantially over time, establishing that import trends are variable.
Use the pattern of past variability as a reason to examine year-by-year import series (2015โ2020) rather than assuming a constant trend; check whether the post-2007 pattern reversed or continued.
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Explicit textbook claim that 'India's imports of ... machinery have decreased in recent years' โ a direct statement about a downward trend in machinery imports.
A student could treat 'recent years' as overlapping 2015โ2020 and check official import timeโseries (e.g., BOT tables) for machinery to confirm the timing and magnitude.
States that 'import of capital goods maintained a steady decline' โ capital goods commonly include machinery, so it supplies a pattern of falling capital/machinery imports.
Map 'capital goods' to the trade category for machinery and compare annual capitalโgoods import figures for 2015โ2020 from government trade data to test the claim.
Notes a structural shift: earlier India imported 'almost all types of machinery' but now is 'exporting all sorts of machinery' โ implying reduced reliance on machinery imports over time.
Use this qualitative shift plus export/import series (or a world map of trading partners) to see if machinery import volumes fell while engineering/machinery exports rose between 2015 and 2020.
Clarifies that 'plant and machinery' are recorded under the Balance of Trade (BOT) and notes measurement conventions (FOB/CIF), which matters when comparing import values over years.
A student should ensure they compare likeโwithโlike (CIF vs FOB) across 2015โ2020 BOT data to avoid misleading conclusions about increases/decreases in machinery imports.
Shows the secondary sector (which includes manufacturing and capital goods activity) contracted sharply in 2020โ21, indicating potential disruptions to trade flows including machinery imports in 2020.
Combine the sectoral downturn (especially in 2020) with annual import data to determine whether machinery imports fell in 2020 as part of the broader manufacturing slump.
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- The RBI-based release cited reports services exports in February 2020 at USD 17.73 billion (and March 2020 est. USD 17.69 billion).
- The same source reports services imports (payments) in February 2020 at USD 11.07 billion.
- These figures show services exports exceeded services imports in the cited 2020 data.
This MCQ lists as one candidate statement that 'India's exports of services are more than its imports of services', signalling this is a debated/focus point in balance-of-payments context.
A student could treat this as a hypothesis to test against official BOP/current-account data for 2020 to confirm or refute it.
States that about 38% of India's total exports are owed to the service sector, indicating services form a large export component.
Combine this share with known total export/import values (from trade data) or recall that services are a large export item to infer whether services exports might exceed services imports.
Reports a decline in foreign tourist arrivals and tourism foreign-exchange earnings in 2020, indicating a pandemic-driven fall in a major services export (tourism).
A student could factor in COVID-19 impacts on tourism (and other services) in 2020 to adjust expectations about services exports relative to imports for that year.
Economic Survey note mentions trends in imports of both goods and services when discussing an expected current account surplus for 2020-21, tying services trade movements into overall CA outcomes.
Use the implication that services import/export trends materially affect the current account โ compare reported services trade balances for 2020 with goods balances to judge whether services were net exporters or importers.
Government initiative aims to raise India's share in global services exports and cites past global-share figures, implying policy focus on increasing services exports.
Recognize that services exports were a policy priority and measurable share exists; a student could look up the stated baseline shares and 2020 outcomes to assess whether exports exceeded imports.
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- Provides separate figures for merchandise (goods) deficit and net services exports for the 2019-20 period including March 2020.
- Explicitly states the combined result: an overall trade deficit when merchandise and services are taken together for AprilโMarch 2019โ20.
- Values given show services surplus did not fully offset the larger merchandise deficit, yielding a net deficit (USD 70.16 billion).
Gives numeric annual export and import totals (and trade balance) for 2019-20 and 2020-21 showing large goods trade deficits in those years.
A student can combine these goods deficit magnitudes with any estimate of net services surplus for 2020 to judge whether the services surplus could offset the goods deficit.
Defines trade surplus/deficit rules (exports>imports โ surplus; exports<imports โ deficit) and notes measurement conventions (FOB/CIF).
Apply this rule to reported goods and services export/import figures to determine whether combined flows yield a net deficit or surplus.
States the service sector accounts for about 38% of India's total exports (and is a large contributor to the economy).
Use the prominence of services exports as an indicator that services could provide a significant surplus โ compare an estimated services surplus (from external sources) against the goods deficit in 2020.
Explains that balance of payments/current account considerations include trade deficits and that capital flows/errors can offset them โ distinguishing trade (goods+services) from overall BoP outcomes.
A student can separate the question of trade (goods+services) deficit from overall BoP by using this rule, focusing on combined goods+services flows rather than capital account adjustments.
Quotes Economic Survey projection that, given import and services trends, India was expected to end with an annual current account surplus in 2020-21.
Use this projection as a clue that net services and other current account items may have been large enough to offset goods deficits around 2020, prompting targeted checking of 2020 combined goods+services balances.
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- Provides a numeric current account balance for 2019โ20 as negative (โ24,656 US$ million).
- Gives current account deficit as a percent of GDP for 2019โ20 (โ1.9%), directly indicating a deficit in that year.
- Identifies India as an example of a country that has experienced current account deficits repeatedly.
- Links the concept of current account deficit to familiar macro contexts (twin deficit discussion), supporting interpretation of negative balances as deficits.
- Explains a sample BoP table where a trade deficit and current account deficit coexist with a capital account surplus.
- Provides context that a negative current account is characterized as a deficit within balance of payments accounting.
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- Bullet 1. [THE VERDICT]: Trap (Statement 2) + Economic Survey (Vol 2, External Sector Chapter).
- Bullet 2. [THE CONCEPTUAL TRIGGER]: Balance of Payments > Current Account > Composition of Trade (Merchandise vs Services).
- Bullet 3. [THE HORIZONTAL EXPANSION]: Memorize Top 3 Imports (Crude, Gold, Electronics) & Top 3 Exports (Petroleum Products, Gems/Jewellery, Drug Formulations). Know the Net Services Surplus (~$80bn+) and Net Remittances (~$80bn+).
- Bullet 4. [THE STRATEGIC METACOGNITION]: Do not memorize absolute numbers ($ billion). Memorize the 'Trend Line' (Rising/Falling/Fluctuating) over the last 5 years for the top 5 commodity groups.
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Comparing merchandise exports and imports determines whether a country has a trade surplus or trade deficit.
High-yield for UPSC economics and current affairs: understanding trade balance is essential for questions on balance of payments, fiscal policy and external sector health. It connects to current account analysis and policy responses to deficits, and enables data-interpretation questions that ask whether trade is in surplus/deficit.
- Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 16: Balance of Payments > 2.1. Balance of Visibles or Balance of Trade (BOT) > p. 472
- Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 17: Indiaโs Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade > India's Foreign Trade in Recent Years > p. 502
The valuation basis (FOB for exports, CIF for imports in India) affects reported export/import figures and thus the measured trade balance.
Important for accurately interpreting trade data and official statistics in UPSC papers; it links to methodology in balance of payments and can change apparent deficits/surpluses. Mastery helps answer questions on measurement differences and their policy implications.
- Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 16: Balance of Payments > 2.1. Balance of Visibles or Balance of Trade (BOT) > p. 472
- Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 17: Indiaโs Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade > India's Foreign Trade in Recent Years > p. 502
Recent years' data show imports higher than exports, producing a persistent merchandise trade deficit relevant to 2020.
Directly relevant to current affairs and economy GS papers: helps answer questions on trade trends, causes of deficits, and implications for forex reserves and macro policy. Enables trend-analysis and cause-effect answer patterns in mains and interview.
- Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 17: Indiaโs Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade > India's Foreign Trade in Recent Years > p. 502
- INDIA PEOPLE AND ECONOMY, TEXTBOOK IN GEOGRAPHY FOR CLASS XII (NCERT 2025 ed.) > Chapter 8: International Trade > INTERNATIONAL TRADE > p. 86
Identifying whether a declared trend (e.g., 'imports have decreased') applies to a specific interval requires understanding how publications date and phrase 'recent years'.
High-yield for UPSC: many questions ask about direction of trade trends rather than exact figures. Mastering how to read temporal qualifiers helps answer trend questions and link them to macro frameworks like Balance of Payments and policy shifts; it also aids critical reading of reports and exam passages.
- Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 16: Balance of Payments > 2020 > p. 487
Knowing which categories (iron & steel, chemicals, machinery, capital goods, food) rise or fall clarifies statements about aggregate import movements.
Important for answering questions on trade structure and policy implications; connects to topics like industrial capacity, import substitution, and external sector balances. Enables candidates to reason from sectoral shifts to macro outcomes (e.g., trade deficit changes).
- Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 16: Balance of Payments > 2020 > p. 487
- INDIA PEOPLE AND ECONOMY, TEXTBOOK IN GEOGRAPHY FOR CLASS XII (NCERT 2025 ed.) > Chapter 8: International Trade > Changing Patterns of the Composition of India's Import > p. 88
Domestic steel production growth and simultaneous reduction in imports are related concepts for explaining trade behaviour in iron and steel.
Useful for questions that ask for causes of changing import patternsโlinking production capacity, export opportunities, and import dependence. Helps integrate industrial policy, resource endowments, and international trade analysis in answers.
- Geography of India ,Majid Husain, (McGrawHill 9th ed.) > Chapter 11: Industries > IRON AND STEEL INDUSTRY > p. 28
- Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 16: Balance of Payments > 2020 > p. 487
Understanding which commodity groups rose or fell in the import basket is essential to judge whether chemical imports decreased.
High-yield for UPSC: questions often ask trends in composition of trade rather than absolute totals. Mastering this helps answer linked topics like balance of payments, sectoral vulnerability, and policy responses (e.g., import substitution). Enables pattern-based questions on which categories (capital goods, food, minerals, chemicals) expanded or contracted.
- INDIA PEOPLE AND ECONOMY, TEXTBOOK IN GEOGRAPHY FOR CLASS XII (NCERT 2025 ed.) > Chapter 8: International Trade > Changing Patterns of the Composition of India's Import > p. 88
- INDIA PEOPLE AND ECONOMY, TEXTBOOK IN GEOGRAPHY FOR CLASS XII (NCERT 2025 ed.) > Chapter 8: International Trade > Changing Pattern of ttern ofttern of the Composition of India's Expor s Exports > p. 87
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Net Investment Income: While Services and Transfers (Remittances) are positive, the 'Investment Income' component of the Current Account is consistently NEGATIVE (India pays more interest/dividends to foreigners than it receives).
The 'List Contamination' Rule: Statement 2 lists four distinct categories (Iron & Steel, Chemicals, Fertilisers, Machinery). In a complex economy, it is statistically improbable that ALL four diverse sectors followed the exact same downward trend simultaneously. If even one (e.g., Machinery or Fertilizers) increased or remained flat, the statement breaks. Eliminate it.
Economy โ International Relations: A high Trade Deficit with China (approx $50-60bn) drives policies like PLI (Production Linked Incentive) and RCEP withdrawal to reduce 'Import Dependence' and enhance 'Strategic Autonomy'.
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