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Q53 (IAS/2014) Environment & Ecology › Climate Change & Global Initiatives › Climate science and impacts Official Key

The scientific view is that the increase in global temperature should not exceed 2 ℃ above pre-industrial level. If the global temperature increases beyond 3 ℃ above the pre-industrial level, what can be its possible impact/impacts on the world? 1. Terrestrial biosphere tends toward a net carbon source. 2. Widespread coral mortality will occur. 3. All the global wetlands will permanently disappear. 4. Cultivation of cereals will not be possible anywhere in the world. Select the correct answer using the code given below.

Result
Your answer:  ·  Correct: B
Explanation

The correct answer is option B (statements 1 and 2 only).

The documents reference warming scenarios of approximately 3.5°C and 2.7°C above pre-industrial levels[2], indicating that temperature increases beyond 3°C are within the range of climate projections being studied. At such elevated temperatures, the terrestrial biosphere would likely shift toward being a net carbon source as vegetation and soils begin releasing more carbon than they absorb, creating a dangerous feedback loop (statement 1 is correct). Similarly, widespread coral mortality would occur at temperatures exceeding 3°C, as corals are extremely sensitive to temperature changes and experience mass bleaching events even at lower warming levels (statement 2 is correct).

However, statements 3 and 4 are extreme exaggerations. While many wetlands would face severe stress and some might disappear, claiming that ALL global wetlands will permanently disappear is not supported by scientific evidence. Similarly, while cereal cultivation would face significant challenges and yields would decline in many regions, stating that cultivation would be impossible "anywhere in the world" is unrealistic. Some regions, particularly in higher latitudes, might even see extended growing seasons. These absolute statements make options C and D incorrect.

Sources
  1. [1] https://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/document/Full_Report_Vol_2_Turn_Down_The_Heat_%20Climate_Extremes_Regional_Impacts_Case_for_Resilience_Print%20version_FINAL.pdf
  2. [2] https://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/document/Full_Report_Vol_2_Turn_Down_The_Heat_%20Climate_Extremes_Regional_Impacts_Case_for_Resilience_Print%20version_FINAL.pdf
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Each bar shows the % of students who chose that option. Green bar = correct answer, blue outline = your choice.
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PROVENANCE & STUDY PATTERN
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Don’t just practise – reverse-engineer the question. This panel shows where this PYQ came from (books / web), how the examiner broke it into hidden statements, and which nearby micro-concepts you were supposed to learn from it. Treat it like an autopsy of the question: what might have triggered it, which exact lines in the book matter, and what linked ideas you should carry forward to future questions.
Q. The scientific view is that the increase in global temperature should not exceed 2 ℃ above pre-industrial level. If the global temperatur…
At a glance
Origin: Mostly Current Affairs Fairness: Low / Borderline fairness Books / CA: 0/10 · 2.5/10

This question is the ultimate 'Bark vs. Bite' example. While Statement 1 requires deep knowledge of IPCC carbon cycle feedbacks (often found in World Bank 'Turn Down the Heat' reports), Statements 3 and 4 are logically absurd extremes. You solve this by rejecting the impossible ('All', 'Anywhere'), not by knowing the obscure science.

How this question is built

This question can be broken into the following sub-statements. Tap a statement sentence to jump into its detailed analysis.

Statement 1
If global mean temperature increases beyond 3°C above pre-industrial levels, does the terrestrial biosphere tend toward a net carbon source?
Origin: Weak / unclear Fairness: Borderline / guessy
Indirect textbook clues
Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 6: Environmental Degradation and Management > Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming > p. 7
Strength: 5/5
“Higher temperatures and less rainfall in some areas may decrease soil moisture levels and actually suppress growth and agricultural yields. In addition to these, the ecologists and bio-geographers have predicted that as global temperature increases, the animal and plant species will shift towards the poles and to higher elevations to maintain their preferred temperature conditions.”
Why relevant

States that higher temperatures and reduced rainfall can decrease soil moisture, suppress plant growth and agricultural yields — a rule linking warming to reduced terrestrial productivity.

How to extend

A student could combine this with the basic idea that lower plant growth reduces ecosystem carbon uptake to infer that strong warming might weaken the land carbon sink and possibly turn it into a source.

Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 7: Climate Change > 2. greenhouse gases > p. 11
Strength: 4/5
“it will lead to catastrophic global warming, which would melt the polar ice-caps, resulting into sea-level rise, stormy weather, droughts and foods, which may be catastrophic to agriculture and other primary, secondary and tertiary activities. Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in Britain and Europe (1779), apart from the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, methane concentrations have more than doubled, and nitrous oxide concentrations have risen by about 15 per cent. Te enhancement in temperature has, consequently, increased the temperature trapping capability of the Earth's atmosphere (Fig. 7.4). • (ii) Methane and Global Warming: Another radiative active gas contributing to the overall greenhouse efect is methane (CH4), which is increasing in concentration at about 1 per cent per year.”
Why relevant

Describes ‘catastrophic global warming’ impacts on agriculture and notes rising greenhouse gas concentrations (e.g., methane) — indicating stronger feedbacks and ecosystem stress under large warming.

How to extend

Using this pattern, a student could argue that more severe warming (≫2°C) increases ecosystem damage and greenhouse gas releases, which could shift net land carbon balance toward a source.

Environment, Shankar IAS Acedemy .(ed 10th) > Chapter 29: Environment Issues and Health Effects > z degreesCgoal > p. 428
Strength: 3/5
“A z degree Celsius rise in global temperatures from pre-industrial levels is the highest rise we can afford if we want a 50% chance of avoiding the worst effects of climate change. • The current concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is 370 parts per million. • The concentration of carbon dioxide equivalent in the atmosphere that the world must stay at or under to stay true to the z degrees Celsius goal is 450 parts per million. All Rights Reserved. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form or by any means, without permission in writing.”
Why relevant

Gives the concept of temperature thresholds (e.g., staying below specified °C increases to avoid worst effects), implying impacts escalate with larger temperature increases.

How to extend

A student could extend this threshold idea to reason that exceeding higher thresholds (such as 3°C) likely produces much larger biosphere impacts that could undermine terrestrial carbon uptake.

Physical Geography by PMF IAS, Manjunath Thamminidi, PMF IAS (1st ed.) > Chapter 20: Earths Atmosphere > Carbon Dioxide > p. 272
Strength: 3/5
“• Being an efficient absorber of heat, carbon dioxide is a very important factor in the heat energy budget. With the increased burning of fossil fuels, the percentage of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is increasing at an alarming rate. This could significantly raise the temperature at lower levels of the atmosphere.”
Why relevant

Explains that increased CO2 and warming arise from fossil-fuel burning and that CO2 strongly affects the heat budget — linking human emissions to rising temperatures that stress ecosystems.

How to extend

Combined with maps or emissions scenarios, a student could infer that continued emissions driving >3°C warming would amplify stressors on land biota, making a net source outcome more plausible.

Statement 2
If global mean temperature increases beyond 3°C above pre-industrial levels, will widespread coral mortality occur?
Origin: Weak / unclear Fairness: Borderline / guessy
Indirect textbook clues
Environment, Shankar IAS Acedemy .(ed 10th) > Chapter 4: Aquatic Ecosystem > Temperature (Major Cause) > p. 52
Strength: 5/5
“r Coral species live within a relatively narrow temperature margin, and anomalously low and high sea temperatures can induce coral bleaching. Bleaching is much more frequently reported from elevated sea water temperature. Bleaching events also occur during sudden temperature drops accompanying intense upwelling episodes, seasonal cold-air outbreaks.”
Why relevant

States coral species live within a relatively narrow temperature margin and that anomalously high sea temperatures can induce coral bleaching.

How to extend

A student could combine this with basic facts about how a >3°C global mean rise likely raises sea-surface temperatures in the tropics to judge increased bleaching risk and potential mortality.

Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 4: BIODIVERSITY > corAl reefs. > p. 54
Strength: 5/5
“Reef ecosystems are vulnerable to catastrophic events, such as hurricanes, marine pollution and bleaching epidemics, which may cause mass mortality of corals. Human stress such as pollution and increase in sediment load, have damaged reefs in many areas. Recently, there has been much speculation over the future impact of global warming and climatic change on coral reefs. Te main coral reefs of India about 19,000 sq km are: (i) Gulf of Mannar, (ii) Lakshadweep Islands (iii) Rann of Kachchh, and (iv) Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Te National Coral Reef Research Centre has been established at Port Blair (Andaman and Nicobar Islands).”
Why relevant

Notes bleaching epidemics can cause mass (catastrophic) mortality of corals and links reefs' vulnerability to elevated stressors.

How to extend

One could map regions of known reef distribution against projected SST increases under >3°C warming to assess probable scale of mortality.

Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 4: BIODIVERSITY > coral Bleaching > p. 56
Strength: 4/5
“Te cause of coral bleaching is unknown. Te initial suspicion centred on global warming and marine pollution. Te important causes of coral bleaching may be summarized as under: • 1. Global Warming: Te coral reefs thrive well in a range of temperatures between 18ºC to 30ºC. Bleaching is more frequently reported from the elevated sea-water where temperature is relatively more (Caribbean Sea, Persian Gulf, Java Sea, Coral Sea and Solomon Islands).• 2. Marine Pollution: Te introduction by humans of substances or energy into the ocean that change the quality of the water or afect the physical and biological environment, is also considered as one of the main causes of coral bleaching.• 3.”
Why relevant

Gives a temperature range in which corals thrive (18–30°C) and states bleaching is more frequently reported from elevated sea-water temperatures.

How to extend

Using current tropical SSTs and a >3°C increase, a student can estimate where local temperatures would exceed corals' tolerable range and infer likely bleaching hotspots.

Environment, Shankar IAS Acedemy .(ed 10th) > Chapter 20: Impact of Climate Change > 20.4" ECOSYSTEMS AND BIO.DIVERSITY > p. 277
Strength: 4/5
“• It has catastrophic impact on the marine ecosystems. They will be affected not only by an increase in sea temperature and changes in ocean circulation, but also by ocean acidification, as the concentration of dissolved carbon dioxide (carbonic acid) rises. • This is expected to negatively affect shell forming organisms, corals and their dependent ecosystems.”
Why relevant

Identifies ocean warming and ocean acidification as climate-change impacts expected to negatively affect corals and their ecosystems.

How to extend

A student can combine projected CO2-driven acidification and >3°C warming scenarios with coral sensitivity to both stressors to assess cumulative mortality risk.

Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 7: Climate Change > evIdence of gloBal WarmIng. > p. 16
Strength: 4/5
“• 23. Te corals are dying at an unprecedented rate. Te epidemics in the corals in the form of coral bleaching is attributed to the rise in temperature of the oceans.• 24. Cloudbursts and fesh foods like that of the 16th June, 2013 in Uttarakhand are becoming more frequent.• 25. Untimely heavy snowfall in Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Badrinath valley (Uttarakhand) and Nepal on 16th October 2014.• 26. Extreme events such as heat-waves, cold-waves, droughts, tornadoes and western disturbances are becoming more frequent.”
Why relevant

Explicitly states corals are dying at an unprecedented rate and attributes coral bleaching to rise in ocean temperatures.

How to extend

A student could take this attribution plus knowledge of how extreme warming events scale with global mean temperature to infer larger-scale bleaching under >3°C warming.

Statement 3
If global mean temperature increases beyond 3°C above pre-industrial levels, will all global wetlands permanently disappear?
Origin: Weak / unclear Fairness: Borderline / guessy
Indirect textbook clues
Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 6: Environmental Degradation and Management > Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming > p. 7
Strength: 4/5
“Higher temperatures and less rainfall in some areas may decrease soil moisture levels and actually suppress growth and agricultural yields. In addition to these, the ecologists and bio-geographers have predicted that as global temperature increases, the animal and plant species will shift towards the poles and to higher elevations to maintain their preferred temperature conditions.”
Why relevant

States higher temperatures and less rainfall in some areas can decrease soil moisture and suppress plant growth, and species (plants/animals) shift poleward and to higher elevations.

How to extend

A student could map where wetlands rely on local precipitation vs. inflows and infer that some inland wetlands may dry while others could persist or shift poleward/elevationally.

INDIA PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT, Geography Class XI (NCERT 2025 ed.) > Chapter 4: Climate > GLOBAL WARMING > p. 40
Strength: 5/5
“green house gases. These gases are better absorbers of long wave radiations than carbon dioxide, and so, are more effective at enhancing the green house effect. These gases have been contributing to global warming. It is said that due to global warming the polar ice caps and mountain glaciers would melt and the amount of water in the oceans would increase. The mean annual surface temperature of the earth in the past 150 years has increased. It is projected that by the year 2,100, global temperature will increase by about 2° C. This rise in temperature will cause many other changes: one of these is a rise in sea level, as a result of melting of glaciers and sea-ice due to warming.”
Why relevant

Predicts melting polar ice and glaciers and a resulting rise in sea level as a consequence of warming.

How to extend

Combine sea-level rise projections with locations of coastal wetlands (mangroves, saltmarshes) on a world map to assess which coastal wetlands are at risk of inundation or migration limits.

Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 7: Climate Change > evIdence of gloBal WarmIng. > p. 15
Strength: 5/5
“Sea level is rising.• 12. Te temperature of global ocean is rising. A global temperature of 15.4o C was reached in 1990.• 13. Permafrost is melting in the Northern Hemisphere.• 14. Vegetation (mosses and lichen) appearing on the slopes of the mountains of Antarctica.• 15. Te tree-line in mountain ranges is moving upward.• 16. Many tropical diseases (malaria, cholera, yellow-fever, dengue-fever, plague and hantavirus) are spreading towards the higher latitudes and the polar regions.• 17. Snowfall was recorded in the desert of Dubai and Abu-Dhabi (Ras-al-Khaima) for the frst time in the recorded history in January/February, 2005.• 18. Te 20th Century was the warmest century of the millennium.• 19.”
Why relevant

Lists observed changes from warming: sea level rise, ocean warming, permafrost melt, vegetation moving upward, and poleward spread of diseases—demonstrating multiple ecosystem impacts.

How to extend

Use these multiple pressure types to reason that different wetland types (coastal, peatland/permafrost, alpine, tropical freshwater) will face different threats and thus not all would respond identically.

Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 7: Climate Change > 2. greenhouse gases > p. 11
Strength: 4/5
“it will lead to catastrophic global warming, which would melt the polar ice-caps, resulting into sea-level rise, stormy weather, droughts and foods, which may be catastrophic to agriculture and other primary, secondary and tertiary activities. Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in Britain and Europe (1779), apart from the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, methane concentrations have more than doubled, and nitrous oxide concentrations have risen by about 15 per cent. Te enhancement in temperature has, consequently, increased the temperature trapping capability of the Earth's atmosphere (Fig. 7.4). • (ii) Methane and Global Warming: Another radiative active gas contributing to the overall greenhouse efect is methane (CH4), which is increasing in concentration at about 1 per cent per year.”
Why relevant

Links catastrophic warming to melting ice-caps, sea-level rise, storminess, droughts and floods—factors that alter wetland extent and hydrology.

How to extend

A student could assess how combined increased storm surge plus sea-level rise threatens some coastal wetlands while increased drought frequency threatens seasonal freshwater wetlands inland.

Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 7: Climate Change > consequences of climate change in India > p. 17
Strength: 4/5
“Te expected general consequences of climatic change have been given concisely in the preceding paragraphs. But the impact of global warming and climate change may be more serious at the national and regional levels. Te scientists of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) found that temperature would increase by about 5o C in several parts of India, especially in Gujarat (Rann of Kachchh) and Rajasthan, and 3o C to 4o C in Peninsular India by the end of the 21st Century. In addition to this, the incidence of violent and stormy weather and the frequency of tropical cyclones may increase by about 50 per cent.”
Why relevant

Gives regional projections of 3–5°C warming in parts of India and notes increased cyclone frequency/intensity—illustrating heterogeneous regional impacts at ~3°C warming.

How to extend

Extrapolate that since warming is regionally variable, some wetlands will experience more severe local change (and possible loss) while others may be less affected or change in different ways.

Statement 4
If global mean temperature increases beyond 3°C above pre-industrial levels, will cultivation of cereals become impossible anywhere in the world?
Origin: Web / Current Affairs Fairness: CA heavy Web-answerable

Web source
Presence: 4/5
"At 5°C above pre-industrial levels, approximately 11 percent of the global population (based on the 2000 population distribu- tion126) is projected to be exposed to severe"
Why this source?
  • Directly discusses crop-sector thresholds and exposure of population to severe impacts at high global warming levels.
  • Indicates severe impacts on crops and populations at 5°C, and that sectoral thresholds for severe changes can be crossed at lower levels than shown.
Web source
Presence: 4/5
"decreases in Southern Africa of up to 80 percent for a warming of 4°C above 1961–90 levels (which corresponds to ~4.4°C above pre-industrial levels)."
Why this source?
  • Describes strong increases in aridity and large reductions in regional water availability for warming levels around and above ~3.5–4°C.
  • Gives concrete regional crop-water declines (e.g., Southern Africa decreases up to 80% for ~4.4°C), implying severe but regionally variable impacts rather than universal impossibility.
Web source
Presence: 3/5
"many regions have experienced higher than average levels of warming and some are already now 1.5°C or more warmer with respect to the pre-industrial period"
Why this source?
  • Explains that regional impacts differ from global mean warming and some regions already exceed global mean thresholds.
  • Supports the point that impacts at a given global mean (e.g., >3°C) will be regionally heterogeneous, not uniformly eliminating cereal cultivation everywhere.

Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 6: Environmental Degradation and Management > Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming > p. 7
Strength: 5/5
“Higher temperatures and less rainfall in some areas may decrease soil moisture levels and actually suppress growth and agricultural yields. In addition to these, the ecologists and bio-geographers have predicted that as global temperature increases, the animal and plant species will shift towards the poles and to higher elevations to maintain their preferred temperature conditions.”
Why relevant

States that higher temperatures and less rainfall can decrease soil moisture and suppress agricultural yields, and that species (plants) will shift poleward and to higher elevations to maintain preferred temperatures.

How to extend

A student could map cereal-growing regions and check whether projected local temperature and precipitation shifts would push them outside crop moisture/temperature limits or force poleward/elevational shifts making current areas unsuitable.

Geography of India ,Majid Husain, (McGrawHill 9th ed.) > Chapter 9: Agriculture > a) Terrain, Topography, and Altitude > p. 17
Strength: 4/5
“sea level, while the apple orchards in the tropical and subtropical conditions perform well above 1500 m above sea level. Moreover, cultivation of crops is rarely done 3500 m above sea-level in the tropical and subtropical latitudes. The highly rarified air, low-pressure, low temperature, and shortage of oxygen at high altitudes are the serious impediments not only in the cultivation of crops, but also in keeping dairy cattle. The soils of high mountainous tracts are generally immature which are also less conducive for agriculture. The topographical features also affect the distribution of rainfall. Normally, the windward side gets more rainfall than the leeward side.”
Why relevant

Gives an example of altitude limits for cultivation (cultivation rarely done above ~3500 m) and notes topography affects rainfall—showing that shifting suitable climates upward has physical limits.

How to extend

Combine this with projected poleward/elevation shifts (from #1) to judge whether upward or poleward migration of cereal zones is physically possible or constrained by altitude/topography.

Certificate Physical and Human Geography , GC Leong (Oxford University press 3rd ed.) > Chapter 26: Agriculture > Sample Objective Ouestions > p. 263
Strength: 5/5
“I Mean summer temperature: 75'F/24 "C II Mean annual rainfall: 30 inches/ 1125 mm III Frost-free period: 200 days IV Well drained, level ground. The above conditions are necessary for the cultivation of an important crop in the Central Lowlands of North America. Name this crop. • A wheat • B tobacco • C cotton • D maize/corn • 18. Which of the following major vegetable oils of the world is leading in annual production (in tonnes)? • A soya bean oil • B cotton seed oil • C palm oil • D coconut oil”
Why relevant

Lists specific climatic requirements for a major crop (temperature, rainfall, frost-free period, well drained ground), illustrating that crops have measurable thresholds.

How to extend

Compare these crop thresholds to projected local climate under >3°C warming to see if basic conditions (e.g., frost-free days, rainfall) would be violated, making cultivation untenable.

Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 7: Climate Change > consequences of climate change in India > p. 17
Strength: 4/5
“Te expected general consequences of climatic change have been given concisely in the preceding paragraphs. But the impact of global warming and climate change may be more serious at the national and regional levels. Te scientists of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) found that temperature would increase by about 5o C in several parts of India, especially in Gujarat (Rann of Kachchh) and Rajasthan, and 3o C to 4o C in Peninsular India by the end of the 21st Century. In addition to this, the incidence of violent and stormy weather and the frequency of tropical cyclones may increase by about 50 per cent.”
Why relevant

Provides regional projections showing multi-degree increases (3–5°C) in parts of India and increased storminess, indicating that warming of this magnitude can produce severe local impacts.

How to extend

Use such regional projection examples plus a world map of projected warming patterns to identify other regions likely to exceed crop tolerance or face destructive extreme weather.

INDIA PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT, Geography Class XI (NCERT 2025 ed.) > Chapter 4: Climate > GLOBAL WARMING > p. 40
Strength: 3/5
“green house gases. These gases are better absorbers of long wave radiations than carbon dioxide, and so, are more effective at enhancing the green house effect. These gases have been contributing to global warming. It is said that due to global warming the polar ice caps and mountain glaciers would melt and the amount of water in the oceans would increase. The mean annual surface temperature of the earth in the past 150 years has increased. It is projected that by the year 2,100, global temperature will increase by about 2° C. This rise in temperature will cause many other changes: one of these is a rise in sea level, as a result of melting of glaciers and sea-ice due to warming.”
Why relevant

Explains that global warming will raise mean surface temperature and cause other changes like sea-level rise—hinting at loss of agricultural land via inundation and glacier melt effects on water supplies.

How to extend

Combine sea-level rise and glacier-melt consequences with maps of low-lying cereal-producing plains to assess whether some cereal-growing areas could be lost or water-stressed under >3°C.

Pattern takeaway: UPSC validates high-level scientific concepts (like carbon cycle feedbacks) by pairing them with absurdly extreme distractors. If you can't verify the science, attack the grammar of the distractors.
How you should have studied
  1. Bullet 1. [THE VERDICT]: Logical Sitter. The source is complex (IPCC/World Bank reports), but the options allow for 100% elimination based on common sense.
  2. Bullet 2. [THE CONCEPTUAL TRIGGER]: Climate Tipping Points & Feedback Loops (specifically the transition of sinks to sources).
  3. Bullet 3. [THE HORIZONTAL EXPANSION]: Memorize the 5 Global Tipping Points: 1) Amazon dieback (sink to source), 2) Permafrost thaw (methane bomb), 3) AMOC circulation collapse, 4) West Antarctic Ice Sheet disintegration, 5) Coral Reef functional extinction (>99% loss at 2°C).
  4. Bullet 4. [THE STRATEGIC METACOGNITION]: Science deals in probabilities, not absolutes. In Ecology/Geography, if a statement uses 'All' (Statement 3) or 'Anywhere' (Statement 4), it is wrong 99% of the time. Nature is heterogeneous; impacts vary by latitude.
Concept hooks from this question
📌 Adjacent topic to master
S1
👉 Role of greenhouse gases (especially CO2) in driving global warming
💡 The insight

Multiple references identify CO2 and other greenhouse gases from human activities as the main drivers of rising global mean temperature.

High-yield for UPSC: questions often link anthropogenic emissions to climate impacts and policy. Understanding the sources, radiative role and rising concentrations of CO2/CH4/N2O ties into environment, energy and policy papers. Prepare by reviewing emissions sources, atmospheric concentrations and basic radiative forcing logic; this helps answer cause–impact and mitigation questions.

📚 Reading List :
  • INDIA PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT, Geography Class XI (NCERT 2025 ed.) > Chapter 4: Climate > GLOBAL WARMING > p. 38
  • Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 7: Climate Change > 1. Increase in air temperature > p. 8
  • Physical Geography by PMF IAS, Manjunath Thamminidi, PMF IAS (1st ed.) > Chapter 20: Earths Atmosphere > Carbon Dioxide > p. 272
🔗 Anchor: "If global mean temperature increases beyond 3°C above pre-industrial levels, doe..."
📌 Adjacent topic to master
S1
👉 Temperature targets and policy thresholds (1.5°C and 2°C)
💡 The insight

The Paris Agreement targets and discussion of allowable temperature rise are explicitly cited, framing policy-relevant temperature thresholds.

Often tested in GS and essay sections: familiarity with 1.5°C/2°C framing, rationale for limits, and related concentration targets (e.g., ppm CO2e) helps analyze mitigation commitments and risks. Learn the policy language, target rationale and implications for mitigation planning.

📚 Reading List :
  • Environment, Shankar IAS Acedemy .(ed 10th) > Chapter 24: Climate Change Organizations > Objectives of the Paris Agreement > p. 331
  • Environment, Shankar IAS Acedemy .(ed 10th) > Chapter 29: Environment Issues and Health Effects > z degreesCgoal > p. 428
🔗 Anchor: "If global mean temperature increases beyond 3°C above pre-industrial levels, doe..."
📌 Adjacent topic to master
S1
👉 Terrestrial ecosystem responses to warming (soil moisture, productivity, range shifts)
💡 The insight

References describe warmer/drier conditions, suppressed plant growth, reduced yields and shifts of species toward poles/higher elevations — all mechanisms that affect land carbon uptake.

Crucial for answering environment-impact questions: links physical climate change to ecological and agricultural outcomes and to carbon cycle implications. Study mechanisms (moisture stress, productivity decline, range shifts) and their socio-economic consequences to tackle multi-dimensional UPSC questions on adaptation and land-use policy.

📚 Reading List :
  • Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 6: Environmental Degradation and Management > Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming > p. 7
  • Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 7: Climate Change > 2. greenhouse gases > p. 11
🔗 Anchor: "If global mean temperature increases beyond 3°C above pre-industrial levels, doe..."
📌 Adjacent topic to master
S2
👉 Coral bleaching is driven by elevated sea temperatures
💡 The insight

Multiple references state corals live within a narrow temperature range and that anomalously high sea temperatures induce bleaching.

High-yield for ecology/environment questions: explains a direct physiological vulnerability linking climate change to ecosystem damage. Connects to topics on marine ecology, climate impacts and adaptation. Useful for questions asking causes/mechanisms of ecosystem stress; revise by studying examples of bleaching events and temperature thresholds described in standard environment texts.

📚 Reading List :
  • Environment, Shankar IAS Acedemy .(ed 10th) > Chapter 4: Aquatic Ecosystem > Temperature (Major Cause) > p. 52
  • Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 4: BIODIVERSITY > coral Bleaching > p. 56
  • Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 7: Climate Change > evIdence of gloBal WarmIng. > p. 16
🔗 Anchor: "If global mean temperature increases beyond 3°C above pre-industrial levels, wil..."
📌 Adjacent topic to master
S2
👉 Bleaching epidemics can cause mass or widespread coral mortality
💡 The insight

References link bleaching epidemics to mass mortality and report corals 'dying at an unprecedented rate' attributed to rising ocean temperatures.

Important for answering impact and vulnerability questions in GS papers and optional papers (Geography/Ecology). Shows progression from stress (warming) to ecological outcome (mass mortality), enabling answers on consequences and policy responses. Prepare by noting documented ecosystem-level outcomes and case studies mentioned in syllabus texts.

📚 Reading List :
  • Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 4: BIODIVERSITY > corAl reefs. > p. 54
  • Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 7: Climate Change > evIdence of gloBal WarmIng. > p. 16
🔗 Anchor: "If global mean temperature increases beyond 3°C above pre-industrial levels, wil..."
📌 Adjacent topic to master
S2
👉 Policy temperature targets (1.5°C / 2°C) as indicators of risk thresholds
💡 The insight

The Paris Agreement goals (1.5°C / well below 2°C) are cited as limits to reduce risks and impacts of climate change on systems including corals.

High relevance for GS3/GSVII and polity-environment questions: links scientific impacts to international policy goals and mitigation rationale. Helps frame answers on why specific targets matter and to evaluate policy adequacy. Study by mapping likely impacts at different temperature increments and reading policy texts referenced in standard sources.

📚 Reading List :
  • Environment, Shankar IAS Acedemy .(ed 10th) > Chapter 24: Climate Change Organizations > Objectives of the Paris Agreement > p. 331
  • Environment, Shankar IAS Acedemy .(ed 10th) > Chapter 29: Environment Issues and Health Effects > z degreesCgoal > p. 428
🔗 Anchor: "If global mean temperature increases beyond 3°C above pre-industrial levels, wil..."
📌 Adjacent topic to master
S3
👉 Species and vegetation shifts with warming
💡 The insight

References report that rising temperatures cause plant and animal species to shift poleward and to higher elevations and note vegetation changes—processes that directly alter wetland composition and distribution.

High‑yield for UPSC environment/ecology: questions often ask how ecosystems respond to climate change. This concept links climate physics to biodiversity, conservation and adaptation policy. Prepare by understanding mechanisms of range shifts, examples of biome changes, and implications for habitat loss and migration.

📚 Reading List :
  • Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 6: Environmental Degradation and Management > Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming > p. 7
  • Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 7: Climate Change > evIdence of gloBal WarmIng. > p. 15
🔗 Anchor: "If global mean temperature increases beyond 3°C above pre-industrial levels, wil..."
🌑 The Hidden Trap

The 'Wet Bulb' Threshold. Just as 3°C is a threshold for ecosystems, 35°C Wet-Bulb Temperature is the physiological limit for human survival. Expect a question linking heat stress, humidity, and labor productivity limits.

⚡ Elimination Cheat Code

The 'High Latitude Exception' Rule. Statement 4 claims cereals will be impossible 'anywhere'. Geography logic dictates that as the tropics burn, the temperate zones (Russia, Canada) become warmer and *more* suitable for agriculture. Therefore, 'anywhere' is geographically impossible. Eliminate 4.

🔗 Mains Connection

Link Statement 4 (Cereal Cultivation) to International Relations (GS2). If tropical agriculture fails, it triggers 'Climate Refugees' moving North. This shifts the debate from 'Food Security' to 'Border Security' and Sovereignty.

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SIMILAR QUESTIONS

IAS · 2012 · Q74 Relevance score: -1.30

Normally, the temperature decreases with the increase in height from the Earth’s surface, because 1. the atmosphere can be heated upwards only from the Earth’s surface 2. there is more moisture in the upper atmosphere 3. the air is less dense in the upper atmosphere Select the correct answer using the codes given below :

IAS · 2016 · Q97 Relevance score: -1.46

With reference to the Agreement at the UNFCCC Meeting in Paris in 2015, which of the following statements is/are correct? 1. The Agreement was signed by all the member countries of the UN and it will go into effect in 2017. 2. The Agreement aims to limit the greenhouse gas emissions so that the rise in average global temperature by the end of this century does not exceed 2 ℃ or even 1.5 ℃ above pre-industrial levels. 3. Developed countries acknowledged their historical responsibility in global warming and committed to donate $ 1000 billion a year from 2020 to help developing countries to cope with climate change. Select the correct answer using the code given below.

CDS-II · 2022 · Q26 Relevance score: -2.43

Which of the following statements about inversion of temperature is/are correct? 1. Temperature increases with increasing altitude. 2. A long winter night with clear skies is an ideal situation. 3. It is a short term phenomenon and is common all over the globe except at the poles. Select the correct answer using the code given below :

IAS · 2025 · Q64 Relevance score: -3.11

The World Bank warned that India could become one of the first places where wet-bulb temperatures routinely exceed 35 ℃. Which of the following statements best reflect(s) the implication of the above-said report? I. Peninsular India will most likely suffer from flooding, tropical cyclones and droughts. II. The survival of animals including humans will be affected as shedding of their body heat through perspiration becomes difficult. Select the correct answer using the code given below.

CDS-II · 2017 · Q34 Relevance score: -3.29

Statement I : Global warming signifies the rise in global surface temperature. Statement I : The increase of concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere causes the rise in global surface temperature.