Question map
The scientific view is that the increase in global temperature should not exceed 2 ℃ above pre-industrial level. If the global temperature increases beyond 3 ℃ above the pre-industrial level, what can be its possible impact/impacts on the world? 1. Terrestrial biosphere tends toward a net carbon source. 2. Widespread coral mortality will occur. 3. All the global wetlands will permanently disappear. 4. Cultivation of cereals will not be possible anywhere in the world. Select the correct answer using the code given below.
Explanation
The correct answer is option B (statements 1 and 2 only).
The documents reference warming scenarios of approximately 3.5°C and 2.7°C above pre-industrial levels[2], indicating that temperature increases beyond 3°C are within the range of climate projections being studied. At such elevated temperatures, the terrestrial biosphere would likely shift toward being a net carbon source as vegetation and soils begin releasing more carbon than they absorb, creating a dangerous feedback loop (statement 1 is correct). Similarly, widespread coral mortality would occur at temperatures exceeding 3°C, as corals are extremely sensitive to temperature changes and experience mass bleaching events even at lower warming levels (statement 2 is correct).
However, statements 3 and 4 are extreme exaggerations. While many wetlands would face severe stress and some might disappear, claiming that ALL global wetlands will permanently disappear is not supported by scientific evidence. Similarly, while cereal cultivation would face significant challenges and yields would decline in many regions, stating that cultivation would be impossible "anywhere in the world" is unrealistic. Some regions, particularly in higher latitudes, might even see extended growing seasons. These absolute statements make options C and D incorrect.
Sources- [1] https://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/document/Full_Report_Vol_2_Turn_Down_The_Heat_%20Climate_Extremes_Regional_Impacts_Case_for_Resilience_Print%20version_FINAL.pdf
- [2] https://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/document/Full_Report_Vol_2_Turn_Down_The_Heat_%20Climate_Extremes_Regional_Impacts_Case_for_Resilience_Print%20version_FINAL.pdf
PROVENANCE & STUDY PATTERN
Full viewThis question is the ultimate 'Bark vs. Bite' example. While Statement 1 requires deep knowledge of IPCC carbon cycle feedbacks (often found in World Bank 'Turn Down the Heat' reports), Statements 3 and 4 are logically absurd extremes. You solve this by rejecting the impossible ('All', 'Anywhere'), not by knowing the obscure science.
This question can be broken into the following sub-statements. Tap a statement sentence to jump into its detailed analysis.
- Statement 1: If global mean temperature increases beyond 3°C above pre-industrial levels, does the terrestrial biosphere tend toward a net carbon source?
- Statement 2: If global mean temperature increases beyond 3°C above pre-industrial levels, will widespread coral mortality occur?
- Statement 3: If global mean temperature increases beyond 3°C above pre-industrial levels, will all global wetlands permanently disappear?
- Statement 4: If global mean temperature increases beyond 3°C above pre-industrial levels, will cultivation of cereals become impossible anywhere in the world?
States that higher temperatures and reduced rainfall can decrease soil moisture, suppress plant growth and agricultural yields — a rule linking warming to reduced terrestrial productivity.
A student could combine this with the basic idea that lower plant growth reduces ecosystem carbon uptake to infer that strong warming might weaken the land carbon sink and possibly turn it into a source.
Describes ‘catastrophic global warming’ impacts on agriculture and notes rising greenhouse gas concentrations (e.g., methane) — indicating stronger feedbacks and ecosystem stress under large warming.
Using this pattern, a student could argue that more severe warming (≫2°C) increases ecosystem damage and greenhouse gas releases, which could shift net land carbon balance toward a source.
Gives the concept of temperature thresholds (e.g., staying below specified °C increases to avoid worst effects), implying impacts escalate with larger temperature increases.
A student could extend this threshold idea to reason that exceeding higher thresholds (such as 3°C) likely produces much larger biosphere impacts that could undermine terrestrial carbon uptake.
Explains that increased CO2 and warming arise from fossil-fuel burning and that CO2 strongly affects the heat budget — linking human emissions to rising temperatures that stress ecosystems.
Combined with maps or emissions scenarios, a student could infer that continued emissions driving >3°C warming would amplify stressors on land biota, making a net source outcome more plausible.
States coral species live within a relatively narrow temperature margin and that anomalously high sea temperatures can induce coral bleaching.
A student could combine this with basic facts about how a >3°C global mean rise likely raises sea-surface temperatures in the tropics to judge increased bleaching risk and potential mortality.
Notes bleaching epidemics can cause mass (catastrophic) mortality of corals and links reefs' vulnerability to elevated stressors.
One could map regions of known reef distribution against projected SST increases under >3°C warming to assess probable scale of mortality.
Gives a temperature range in which corals thrive (18–30°C) and states bleaching is more frequently reported from elevated sea-water temperatures.
Using current tropical SSTs and a >3°C increase, a student can estimate where local temperatures would exceed corals' tolerable range and infer likely bleaching hotspots.
Identifies ocean warming and ocean acidification as climate-change impacts expected to negatively affect corals and their ecosystems.
A student can combine projected CO2-driven acidification and >3°C warming scenarios with coral sensitivity to both stressors to assess cumulative mortality risk.
Explicitly states corals are dying at an unprecedented rate and attributes coral bleaching to rise in ocean temperatures.
A student could take this attribution plus knowledge of how extreme warming events scale with global mean temperature to infer larger-scale bleaching under >3°C warming.
States higher temperatures and less rainfall in some areas can decrease soil moisture and suppress plant growth, and species (plants/animals) shift poleward and to higher elevations.
A student could map where wetlands rely on local precipitation vs. inflows and infer that some inland wetlands may dry while others could persist or shift poleward/elevationally.
Predicts melting polar ice and glaciers and a resulting rise in sea level as a consequence of warming.
Combine sea-level rise projections with locations of coastal wetlands (mangroves, saltmarshes) on a world map to assess which coastal wetlands are at risk of inundation or migration limits.
Lists observed changes from warming: sea level rise, ocean warming, permafrost melt, vegetation moving upward, and poleward spread of diseases—demonstrating multiple ecosystem impacts.
Use these multiple pressure types to reason that different wetland types (coastal, peatland/permafrost, alpine, tropical freshwater) will face different threats and thus not all would respond identically.
Links catastrophic warming to melting ice-caps, sea-level rise, storminess, droughts and floods—factors that alter wetland extent and hydrology.
A student could assess how combined increased storm surge plus sea-level rise threatens some coastal wetlands while increased drought frequency threatens seasonal freshwater wetlands inland.
Gives regional projections of 3–5°C warming in parts of India and notes increased cyclone frequency/intensity—illustrating heterogeneous regional impacts at ~3°C warming.
Extrapolate that since warming is regionally variable, some wetlands will experience more severe local change (and possible loss) while others may be less affected or change in different ways.
- Directly discusses crop-sector thresholds and exposure of population to severe impacts at high global warming levels.
- Indicates severe impacts on crops and populations at 5°C, and that sectoral thresholds for severe changes can be crossed at lower levels than shown.
- Describes strong increases in aridity and large reductions in regional water availability for warming levels around and above ~3.5–4°C.
- Gives concrete regional crop-water declines (e.g., Southern Africa decreases up to 80% for ~4.4°C), implying severe but regionally variable impacts rather than universal impossibility.
- Explains that regional impacts differ from global mean warming and some regions already exceed global mean thresholds.
- Supports the point that impacts at a given global mean (e.g., >3°C) will be regionally heterogeneous, not uniformly eliminating cereal cultivation everywhere.
States that higher temperatures and less rainfall can decrease soil moisture and suppress agricultural yields, and that species (plants) will shift poleward and to higher elevations to maintain preferred temperatures.
A student could map cereal-growing regions and check whether projected local temperature and precipitation shifts would push them outside crop moisture/temperature limits or force poleward/elevational shifts making current areas unsuitable.
Gives an example of altitude limits for cultivation (cultivation rarely done above ~3500 m) and notes topography affects rainfall—showing that shifting suitable climates upward has physical limits.
Combine this with projected poleward/elevation shifts (from #1) to judge whether upward or poleward migration of cereal zones is physically possible or constrained by altitude/topography.
Lists specific climatic requirements for a major crop (temperature, rainfall, frost-free period, well drained ground), illustrating that crops have measurable thresholds.
Compare these crop thresholds to projected local climate under >3°C warming to see if basic conditions (e.g., frost-free days, rainfall) would be violated, making cultivation untenable.
Provides regional projections showing multi-degree increases (3–5°C) in parts of India and increased storminess, indicating that warming of this magnitude can produce severe local impacts.
Use such regional projection examples plus a world map of projected warming patterns to identify other regions likely to exceed crop tolerance or face destructive extreme weather.
Explains that global warming will raise mean surface temperature and cause other changes like sea-level rise—hinting at loss of agricultural land via inundation and glacier melt effects on water supplies.
Combine sea-level rise and glacier-melt consequences with maps of low-lying cereal-producing plains to assess whether some cereal-growing areas could be lost or water-stressed under >3°C.
- Bullet 1. [THE VERDICT]: Logical Sitter. The source is complex (IPCC/World Bank reports), but the options allow for 100% elimination based on common sense.
- Bullet 2. [THE CONCEPTUAL TRIGGER]: Climate Tipping Points & Feedback Loops (specifically the transition of sinks to sources).
- Bullet 3. [THE HORIZONTAL EXPANSION]: Memorize the 5 Global Tipping Points: 1) Amazon dieback (sink to source), 2) Permafrost thaw (methane bomb), 3) AMOC circulation collapse, 4) West Antarctic Ice Sheet disintegration, 5) Coral Reef functional extinction (>99% loss at 2°C).
- Bullet 4. [THE STRATEGIC METACOGNITION]: Science deals in probabilities, not absolutes. In Ecology/Geography, if a statement uses 'All' (Statement 3) or 'Anywhere' (Statement 4), it is wrong 99% of the time. Nature is heterogeneous; impacts vary by latitude.
Multiple references identify CO2 and other greenhouse gases from human activities as the main drivers of rising global mean temperature.
High-yield for UPSC: questions often link anthropogenic emissions to climate impacts and policy. Understanding the sources, radiative role and rising concentrations of CO2/CH4/N2O ties into environment, energy and policy papers. Prepare by reviewing emissions sources, atmospheric concentrations and basic radiative forcing logic; this helps answer cause–impact and mitigation questions.
- INDIA PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT, Geography Class XI (NCERT 2025 ed.) > Chapter 4: Climate > GLOBAL WARMING > p. 38
- Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 7: Climate Change > 1. Increase in air temperature > p. 8
- Physical Geography by PMF IAS, Manjunath Thamminidi, PMF IAS (1st ed.) > Chapter 20: Earths Atmosphere > Carbon Dioxide > p. 272
The Paris Agreement targets and discussion of allowable temperature rise are explicitly cited, framing policy-relevant temperature thresholds.
Often tested in GS and essay sections: familiarity with 1.5°C/2°C framing, rationale for limits, and related concentration targets (e.g., ppm CO2e) helps analyze mitigation commitments and risks. Learn the policy language, target rationale and implications for mitigation planning.
- Environment, Shankar IAS Acedemy .(ed 10th) > Chapter 24: Climate Change Organizations > Objectives of the Paris Agreement > p. 331
- Environment, Shankar IAS Acedemy .(ed 10th) > Chapter 29: Environment Issues and Health Effects > z degreesCgoal > p. 428
References describe warmer/drier conditions, suppressed plant growth, reduced yields and shifts of species toward poles/higher elevations — all mechanisms that affect land carbon uptake.
Crucial for answering environment-impact questions: links physical climate change to ecological and agricultural outcomes and to carbon cycle implications. Study mechanisms (moisture stress, productivity decline, range shifts) and their socio-economic consequences to tackle multi-dimensional UPSC questions on adaptation and land-use policy.
- Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 6: Environmental Degradation and Management > Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming > p. 7
- Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 7: Climate Change > 2. greenhouse gases > p. 11
Multiple references state corals live within a narrow temperature range and that anomalously high sea temperatures induce bleaching.
High-yield for ecology/environment questions: explains a direct physiological vulnerability linking climate change to ecosystem damage. Connects to topics on marine ecology, climate impacts and adaptation. Useful for questions asking causes/mechanisms of ecosystem stress; revise by studying examples of bleaching events and temperature thresholds described in standard environment texts.
- Environment, Shankar IAS Acedemy .(ed 10th) > Chapter 4: Aquatic Ecosystem > Temperature (Major Cause) > p. 52
- Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 4: BIODIVERSITY > coral Bleaching > p. 56
- Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 7: Climate Change > evIdence of gloBal WarmIng. > p. 16
References link bleaching epidemics to mass mortality and report corals 'dying at an unprecedented rate' attributed to rising ocean temperatures.
Important for answering impact and vulnerability questions in GS papers and optional papers (Geography/Ecology). Shows progression from stress (warming) to ecological outcome (mass mortality), enabling answers on consequences and policy responses. Prepare by noting documented ecosystem-level outcomes and case studies mentioned in syllabus texts.
- Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 4: BIODIVERSITY > corAl reefs. > p. 54
- Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 7: Climate Change > evIdence of gloBal WarmIng. > p. 16
The Paris Agreement goals (1.5°C / well below 2°C) are cited as limits to reduce risks and impacts of climate change on systems including corals.
High relevance for GS3/GSVII and polity-environment questions: links scientific impacts to international policy goals and mitigation rationale. Helps frame answers on why specific targets matter and to evaluate policy adequacy. Study by mapping likely impacts at different temperature increments and reading policy texts referenced in standard sources.
- Environment, Shankar IAS Acedemy .(ed 10th) > Chapter 24: Climate Change Organizations > Objectives of the Paris Agreement > p. 331
- Environment, Shankar IAS Acedemy .(ed 10th) > Chapter 29: Environment Issues and Health Effects > z degreesCgoal > p. 428
References report that rising temperatures cause plant and animal species to shift poleward and to higher elevations and note vegetation changes—processes that directly alter wetland composition and distribution.
High‑yield for UPSC environment/ecology: questions often ask how ecosystems respond to climate change. This concept links climate physics to biodiversity, conservation and adaptation policy. Prepare by understanding mechanisms of range shifts, examples of biome changes, and implications for habitat loss and migration.
- Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 6: Environmental Degradation and Management > Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming > p. 7
- Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 7: Climate Change > evIdence of gloBal WarmIng. > p. 15
The 'Wet Bulb' Threshold. Just as 3°C is a threshold for ecosystems, 35°C Wet-Bulb Temperature is the physiological limit for human survival. Expect a question linking heat stress, humidity, and labor productivity limits.
The 'High Latitude Exception' Rule. Statement 4 claims cereals will be impossible 'anywhere'. Geography logic dictates that as the tropics burn, the temperate zones (Russia, Canada) become warmer and *more* suitable for agriculture. Therefore, 'anywhere' is geographically impossible. Eliminate 4.
Link Statement 4 (Cereal Cultivation) to International Relations (GS2). If tropical agriculture fails, it triggers 'Climate Refugees' moving North. This shifts the debate from 'Food Security' to 'Border Security' and Sovereignty.