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Q4 (IAS/2015) Economy › Government Finance & Budget › Taxation principles Official Key

A decrease in tax to GDP ratio of a country indicates which of the following? 1. Slowing economic growth rate 2. Less equitable distribution of national income Select the correct answer using the code given below.

Result
Your answer:  ·  Correct: A
Explanation

The tax to GDP ratio is the ratio of total government tax collection to a country's Gross Domestic Product[1]. A decrease in this ratio does not necessarily indicate either a slowing economic growth rate or less equitable income distribution.

After the fiscal stimulus, even though GDP growth picked up from 2008-09, there is a fall in the tax collection[2]. This demonstrates that tax collection can fall even when economic growth is rising, disproving statement 1. The initial fall during 90s is due to domestic rate cut in indirect tax after liberalization which was started in 1991[3], showing that policy changes like tax rate reductions can cause the ratio to decrease independently of growth rates.

The tax-to-GDP ratio is primarily influenced by tax policy, tax administration efficiency, compliance levels, and the structure of the economy. A decrease can occur due to deliberate tax cuts, exemptions, or poor compliance—none of which directly indicate slowing growth or income inequality. Therefore, neither statement 1 nor statement 2 is necessarily indicated by a decrease in the tax-to-GDP ratio.

Sources
  1. [1] https://www.nacin.gov.in/Documents/MCTPTraining/MCTP_2015-16/Phase_III/569892cbae160.pdf
  2. [2] https://www.nacin.gov.in/Documents/MCTPTraining/MCTP_2015-16/Phase_III/569892cbae160.pdf
  3. [3] https://www.nacin.gov.in/Documents/MCTPTraining/MCTP_2015-16/Phase_III/569892cbae160.pdf
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Don’t just practise – reverse-engineer the question. This panel shows where this PYQ came from (books / web), how the examiner broke it into hidden statements, and which nearby micro-concepts you were supposed to learn from it. Treat it like an autopsy of the question: what might have triggered it, which exact lines in the book matter, and what linked ideas you should carry forward to future questions.
Q. A decrease in tax to GDP ratio of a country indicates which of the following? 1. Slowing economic growth rate 2. Less equitable distribut…
At a glance
Origin: Mostly Current Affairs Fairness: Low / Borderline fairness Books / CA: 0/10 · 5/10
You're seeing a guest preview. The Verdict and first statement analysis are open. Login with Google to unlock all tabs.

This is a classic 'Logic vs. Correlation' trap disguised as an economy question. UPSC tests if you treat macro-indicators (like Tax/GDP) as mathematical ratios (A/B) or as moral proxies. Since a ratio can fall because the denominator (GDP) grows faster than the numerator (Tax), neither statement is 'necessarily' true. Always check the math behind the metric.

How this question is built

This question can be broken into the following sub-statements. Tap a statement sentence to jump into its detailed analysis.

Statement 1
Does a decrease in a country's tax-to-GDP ratio indicate a slowing economic growth rate?
Origin: Web / Current Affairs Fairness: CA heavy Web-answerable

Web source
Presence: 5/5
"After the fiscal stimulus, even though GDP growth picked up from 2008-09, there is a fall in the tax collection."
Why this source?
  • Directly states that GDP growth picked up after 2008-09 while tax collection fell, showing a declining tax-to-GDP ratio can coincide with rising GDP.
  • This contradicts the claim that a falling tax-to-GDP ratio necessarily indicates slowing economic growth.
Web source
Presence: 4/5
"The initial fall during 90s is due to domestic rate cut in indirect tax after liberalization which was started in 1991."
Why this source?
  • Explains the tax-to-GDP ratio fell in the 1990s due to domestic rate cuts in indirect taxes after liberalisation, indicating policy changes (not GDP slowdown) can reduce the ratio.
  • Shows tax-to-GDP movements can reflect tax policy rather than underlying economic growth trends.

Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 5: Indian Tax Structure and Public Finance > 4. What is/are the most likely advantages of implementing 'Goods and Services Tax (GST)?' > p. 128
Strength: 4/5
“10. A decrease in tax to GDP ratio of a country indicates which of the following? • 1. Slowing economic growth rate. • 2. Less equitable distribution of national income. Select the correct answer using the code given below: (a) 1 only • (b) 2 only • (c) Both 1 and 2 (d) Neither 1 nor 2”
Why relevant

This snippet frames the precise proposition as an exam-style question, listing 'slowing economic growth rate' as a possible interpretation of a falling tax-to-GDP ratio.

How to extend

A student could treat this as a hypothesis to test using data on tax/GDP and GDP growth across years or countries to see how often they co-move.

Indian Economy, Vivek Singh (7th ed. 2023-24) > Chapter 1: Fundamentals of Macro Economy > 1.12 Nominal and Real GDP > p. 19
Strength: 5/5
“So, economic growth from 2011-12 to 2012-13 will be measured by change in Real GDP (and not nominal GDP) which is 11.2 % In the above example, Real GDP is steadily/consistently increasing from 2011-12 to 2014- 15 but "change in real GDP" is decreasing from 11.2% to 4.6%. (And same is true for nominal GDP also). Above is a case of economic growth as real GDP is increasing. To calculate GDP at market prices, first we calculate GDP at factor cost/basic prices and then we separately add the governments total indirect taxes including both GST and non-GST tax revenue of Central and State governments.”
Why relevant

Explains that a falling GDP growth rate can coexist with rising real GDP levels (growth slowdown vs level), clarifying that 'growth rate' and 'output level' are distinct concepts.

How to extend

Use this distinction to check whether a falling tax/GDP coincides with lower GDP growth rates (speed) rather than a fall in GDP level; compare growth-rate series rather than levels.

Indian Economy, Vivek Singh (7th ed. 2023-24) > Chapter 1: Fundamentals of Macro Economy > 1.14 Potential GDP > p. 23
Strength: 4/5
“Let us take an example to understand recession. • Year: Real GDP; 2012: Rs.100; Col3: ; 2013: Rs.108; Col5: ; 2014: Rs.112; Col7: ; 2015: Rs.115 • Year: Real GDP growth; 2012: ; Col3: 8%; 2013: ; Col5: 3.7%; 2014: ; Col7: 2.7%; 2015: In the above example the country is not going through any recession as real GDP (output) of the economy is still increasing even if the growth rate of GDP is decreasing. The recession occurs when the growth rate of GDP becomes negative or output starts decreasing. The above is a case of economic (growth) slowdown and not recession.”
Why relevant

Gives the concept of 'slowdown' where growth rate declines but output still rises, and defines recession vs slowdown.

How to extend

Apply this rule to interpret a drop in tax/GDP: determine if it aligns with a slowdown (lower growth rate) or with other causes while output may still rise.

Indian Economy, Vivek Singh (7th ed. 2023-24) > Chapter 16: Terminology > 16 Terminology > p. 462
Strength: 5/5
“Tax buoyancy greater than one is good for economy.• Tax Elasticity: The tax elasticity measures the responsiveness of tax revenue to changes in tax rate and is defined as the ratio of percentage change in tax revenue to percentage change in tax rate.• Tax Expenditure: Tax expenditure refers to the revenues foregone as a result of various exemptions and concessions given by the government. These exemptions are given for certain specific sectors to promote growth and to industries located in difficult areas and promoting balanced regional growth.• Terms of Trade (ToT): It is the ratio of export price index to import price index.”
Why relevant

Defines tax buoyancy/elasticity: measures how tax revenues respond to changes in tax base or rates — linking tax revenue behaviour to GDP movements.

How to extend

A student could use tax buoyancy/elasticity concepts to assess whether a drop in tax/GDP stems from weak tax responsiveness to growth (low buoyancy) or from actual weaker GDP growth.

Indian Economy, Vivek Singh (7th ed. 2023-24) > Chapter 8: Inclusive growth and issues > 8.13 Rising Income Inequality > p. 276
Strength: 4/5
“However, these may not be pragmatic solutions. The tax/GDP ratio has to be raised with a wider tax base rather than increasing the tax rate. The new and aspiring India wants equality of opportunity rather than redistributive measures. As we initiated the reforms in 1991, the Indian economy moved on a higher growth trajectory of 6.3%, which helped the government to raise more resources and it also pulled in a lot of population in the growth process. The proportion of nationwide population living below the poverty line (as per the planning commission estimates) fell from 36% (40.7 cr) in 1993-94 to 27.5% (35.5 cr) in 2004-05 and 21.9% (26.9 cr) in 2011-12.”
Why relevant

Notes that raising tax/GDP is often achieved via a wider base and that higher GDP growth historically increased government resources — indicating two-way links between growth and tax ratios.

How to extend

Combine this with external data on tax policy changes: check if falling tax/GDP coincides with tax-base narrowing or policy cuts rather than purely lower growth.

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