Question map
Consider the following statements : 1. Tax revenue as a percent of GDP of India has steadily increased in the last decade. 2. Fiscal deficit as a percent of GDP of India has steadily increased in the last decade. Which of the statements given above is/are correct ?
Explanation
The correct answer is option D (Neither 1 nor 2).
**Statement 1 Analysis:** India's tax revenue as a percentage of GDP did not show a steady increase during 2007-2017. While tax revenue data is tracked as a percent of GDP by the World Bank[1], the actual trend during this period showed fluctuations rather than consistent growth. The tax-to-GDP ratio experienced variations due to economic cycles, policy changes, and implementation challenges.
**Statement 2 Analysis:** India's fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP also did not steadily increase during this decade. In fact, fiscal consolidation post-2010 was achieved, with consolidations in "non-special" category[2] states being driven by increased revenues[2]. The period saw efforts to reduce fiscal deficits, particularly after the 2008-09 global financial crisis spike, with the government working toward fiscal consolidation targets. The fiscal deficit generally declined or remained stable during the latter part of this period, rather than showing a steady increase.
Therefore, both statements are incorrect, making option D the correct answer.
Sources- [2] https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/400139d320ead96a0ec624d3608d9b56-0310012025/original/India-Country-Economic-Memorandum-2024-0227c.pdf
PROVENANCE & STUDY PATTERN
Guest previewThis is a classic 'Trend Analysis' trap. UPSC takes a volatile economic indicator and adds the word 'steadily' or 'continuously' to test if you remember major economic shocks (like the 2008 crisis). You don't need exact numbers; you need to know the 'shape' of the graph.
This question can be broken into the following sub-statements. Tap a statement sentence to jump into its detailed analysis.
This textbook presents the exact claim as an exam-style proposition, signalling it is non-trivial and contested (an item for verification rather than accepted fact).
A student should treat the claim as testable: locate year-by-year tax-revenue/GDP ratios for 2007â08 through 2016â17 (e.g., from budget documents or RBI) and check for a monotonic upward pattern.
Discusses the tax/GDP ratio as an explicit policy metric and links it to economic growthâimplying tax/GDP can change with growth and policy (wider base vs higher rates).
Combine knowledge of Indiaâs growth episodes and any tax policy changes in 2007â17 (e.g., base changes, major tax reforms) to judge whether tax/GDP would plausibly rise steadily or fluctuate.
Describes fiscal consolidation since 1991 and notes fiscal deficits/revenue deficits trend dynamicsâshowing deficits and fiscal policy can influence revenue measures as % of GDP.
Compare periods of fiscal consolidation or rising deficits in 2007â17 with tax revenue series to see if policy shifts explain increases or declines in tax/GDP.
Explains GDP measurement (nominal vs real) and notes government indirect taxes are part of GDP at market pricesâhighlighting the importance of using consistent GDP definition when computing tax/GDP.
When assembling tax/GDP time series for 2007â17, ensure taxes (central+state) are compared to the same GDP series (nominal at market prices) to avoid spurious trends.
Provides recent deficit-to-GDP figures and emphasizes that fiscal indicators vary year-to-year, suggesting that related ratios (like tax/GDP) may also not be monotonic.
Use the documented year-to-year variability in fiscal ratios as a cue to expect possible non-steady behavior in tax/GDP; check annual tax receipts against GDP for volatility in 2007â17.
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