Question map
Consider the following statements : Statement-I : There is instability and worsening security situation in the Sahel region. Statement-II : There have been military takeovers/coups d'état in several countries of the Sahel region in the recent past. Which one of the following is correct in respect of the above statements ?
Explanation
The correct answer is option A because both statements are factually accurate and Statement-II provides a causal explanation for Statement-I.
Statement-I is correct as the Sahel region has indeed experienced a deteriorating[2] security situation[1], with lack of good governance, risks of collapsing state authority, and potential spillover of instability to neighboring regions[3].
Statement-II is also correct as Mali experienced military coups in September 2020 and April 2021, Burkina Faso had coups in January and September 2022, and Niger experienced a coup in July 2023[4].
Crucially, Statement-II explains Statement-I because the coups d'état in Mali and Burkina Faso were justified by their authors based on widespread popular frustration with the expansion of violence and limitations of security partnerships, which accelerated the collapse of security[5]. Additionally, the worsening security situation was one of the grounds put forward by the soldiers to justify the coup in Niger[6]. This demonstrates a direct causal relationship where military takeovers both resulted from and contributed to the regional instability.
Sources- [1] https://main.un.org/securitycouncil/sites/default/files/25th_suppl_part_viii_advance_version.pdf
- [2] https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2024/09/the-sahels-intertwined-challenges-yabi
- [3] https://www.un.org/counterterrorism/en/cct/counter-terrorism-in-the-sahel
- [4] https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2024/09/the-sahels-intertwined-challenges-yabi
- [5] https://www.amnesty.org/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AFR4388652025ENGLISH.pdf
- [6] https://www.amnesty.org/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AFR4388652025ENGLISH.pdf
PROVENANCE & STUDY PATTERN
Full viewThis is a classic 'Map-based International Relations' question. The 'Sahel Coup Belt' was the dominant geopolitical story of 2023. This question rewards those who track 'Zones of Conflict' rather than just memorizing static capitals. If you read the International page, this was a sitter; if you relied only on static books, it was invisible.
This question can be broken into the following sub-statements. Tap a statement sentence to jump into its detailed analysis.
- Statement 1: Has the Sahel region experienced increased instability and a worsening security situation in recent years?
- Statement 2: Which Sahel countries have experienced military takeovers or coups d'état in the recent past?
- Statement 3: Have recent military takeovers/coups in Sahel countries contributed to or explained the instability and worsening security situation in the Sahel region?
- Explicitly states a deteriorating security situation in the Sahel.
- Links that deterioration to regional political decisions (e.g., withdrawal from the Group of Five for the Sahel), indicating broader instability.
- Directly says the situation in the Sahel has 'deteriorated dramatically'.
- Connects the deterioration to prolonged security and political crises and to social effects (lost schooling, displacement) that exacerbate insecurity.
- Links lack of good governance and risks of collapsing state authority to increased international focus and assistance for the Sahel.
- Warns of risks of spillover of instability and the need to address terrorism and violent extremism before escalation.
States a broad pattern that most of the world's armed conflicts now occur in sub‑Saharan Africa, highlighting the region as a present locus of conflict.
A student could map the Sahel within sub‑Saharan Africa and compare recent conflict incidence/time‑series or news reports for Sahel countries to judge if the regional share of conflict has risen.
Documents repeated severe droughts and environmental degradation in the Sahel, including major droughts in the 1990s that caused starvation and land pressure.
One can link these recurrent environmental shocks to possible drivers of instability by checking whether drought/famine years coincide with spikes in displacement, protests, or local violence in Sahel countries.
Notes very frequent famine years across the Sahel countries, indicating chronic humanitarian stress that can exacerbate social and political tensions.
A student could compare humanitarian indicators (famine, malnutrition, displacement) over time with security indicators (conflict events, refugee flows) for Sahel states to assess correlation.
Identifies ENSO/drought linkages contributing to widespread droughts in the Sahel—showing a climatic pattern that can produce recurrent shocks.
Combine this climatic vulnerability with recent climate records and reports of social unrest to evaluate whether climate‑driven stress plausibly contributed to worsening security.
States that low human development often coexists with political turmoil, civil war, famine or high disease incidence, a general rule linking deprivation to instability.
A student could check human development trends for Sahel countries and see if declines or persistently low HDI levels align with increased instability indicators.
- Explicitly names the three Sahel countries that experienced coups between 2020 and 2023.
- Gives the timing and sequence for Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, directly answering which countries had takeovers.
- Specifically references coups in Mali and Burkina Faso as recent events affecting the Sahel security architecture.
- Links those coups to regional changes, confirming they are recent and consequential military takeovers.
- Refers to the 26 July coup (Niger) and notes that Mali and Burkina Faso supported the coup leaders.
- Describes Mali and Burkina Faso as 'two countries suspended by ECOWAS following military takeovers,' confirming their recent coups.
Lists countries in the Sahel/affected-by-desertification region, explicitly naming Mali, Mauritania, and Chad.
A student could take these named Sahel countries (Mali, Mauritania, Chad) and check current affairs sources for reports of recent military takeovers in those states.
Names Mali and Burkina Faso among countries on the prime meridian — identifying Burkina Faso as a country geographically in the Sahel/Mali neighborhood.
Use Burkina Faso as another Sahel country to investigate news reports about coups or military takeovers in recent years.
States a general rule/pattern that many newly independent countries faced internal military conflict and the prospect of military takeovers.
Apply this general pattern to Sahel countries (many of which are post-colonial states) to form a plausible hypothesis that some have experienced coups and then verify with contemporary records.
Provides a concrete example of a military coup (Pakistan 1999), illustrating the type of event being asked about.
Use this example as a model of what to look for in Sahel country histories (e.g., military leaders overthrowing elected governments) when searching recent records.
Gives multiple historical examples of countries (Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal) experiencing both civilian and military rule, reinforcing that coups occur in developing-region contexts.
Treat this as further pattern evidence to check whether Sahel states fit the same pattern of intermittent military takeovers in their recent histories.
- Explicitly links the Niger coup to an existing context of armed conflict and a worsening security situation — soldiers cited insecurity as a ground for the takeover.
- Shows international repercussions (e.g., suspension of cooperation) that follow the coup, implying effects on stability and security partnerships.
- Identifies the region’s 'surge in attempted coups d’état' as a key issue affecting West Africa and the Sahel.
- Connects coups to broader structural conflict drivers (poor governance, under-development, climate change) that sustain instability.
- Academic analysis frames 'recent coups in the Sahel region' alongside a 'relapse of democracy' and an 'ongoing insecurity impasse', indicating coups are entwined with the region's insecurity.
- Argues the evolving dynamic of coups has profound effects on regional shifts and the complexities of Sahel insecurity.
Desertification and recurrent drought in the Sahel create resource stress that can exacerbate competition, displacement and local grievances.
A student could map where environmental stress is worst in the Sahel and then check whether areas with coups or weak governments overlap with spikes in violence or population movement.
Climate variability (ENSO) is linked to widespread Sahel droughts, indicating environmental shocks are a recurring driver of instability.
Combine ENSO/drought years with timelines of political disruptions in Sahel states to see if environmental shocks precede or correlate with security deterioration after coups.
Sub‑Saharan Africa hosts many of the world’s armed conflicts and associated migration, implying regional patterns of instability that could interact with internal political change.
Use regional conflict and displacement data (standard sources/maps) to test whether post‑coup periods in Sahel countries show increased conflict intensity or refugee flows compared with stable periods.
Newly independent countries face internal military conflict risks; military actors have historically been a domestic security factor.
Apply this general rule to Sahel states: examine whether military takeovers disrupted institutions (security forces, governance) in ways that could allow insurgents or criminal groups to expand.
The snippet shows that coups and alternating civilian/military rule are a recognized pattern in regional politics, suggesting military rule can be an explanatory variable for instability.
A student can list Sahel governments with recent coups and compare security indicators (attacks, territory loss, humanitarian crises) before and after each takeover to assess contribution to worsening security.
- Bullet 1. [THE VERDICT]: Sitter (Current Affairs) / Trap (Static-only). Source: The 'Coup Belt' narrative (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger) was headline news in The Hindu/IE throughout 2023-24.
- Bullet 2. [THE CONCEPTUAL TRIGGER]: Political Geography of Africa & 'Places in News'. specifically the 'Sahel Transition Zone'.
- Bullet 3. [THE HORIZONTAL EXPANSION]: Memorize the 'Coup Belt' line (West to East): Guinea -> Mali -> Burkina Faso -> Niger -> Chad -> Sudan. Know the 'Alliance of Sahel States' (AES) formed by the juntas. Link to resources: Uranium (Niger) and Gold (Mali/Burkina).
- Bullet 4. [THE STRATEGIC METACOGNITION]: When a region dominates news (Niger coup, French withdrawal), map the contagion effect. Ask: 'Which neighbors are falling? Why is the security architecture collapsing?' UPSC tests the *narrative* of the region, not just the location.
The Sahel undergoes frequent droughts that produce repeated famine years and massive mortality risks.
High-yield for UPSC: links physical geography (rainfall variability, ENSO) to human security (food crises, migration). Useful for questions on climate vulnerability, disaster management and humanitarian response; connects to topics like agriculture, food security and international aid.
- Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 6: Environmental Degradation and Management > dESErtIfIcatIon or dESErtISatIon. > p. 17
- Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 8: Natural Hazards and Disaster Management > Causes of Famines > p. 83
- Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 8: Natural Hazards and Disaster Management > el nino (southern oscillation) and indian Monsoon > p. 54
Drought-triggered starvation drives increased farming and livestock pressure, accelerating land degradation and desertification in the Sahel.
Important for environment and sustainable development answers: explains feedbacks between socio-economic coping and environmental decline, informing policy prescriptions (land management, livelihoods). Enables integrated answers on climate adaptation and rural development.
- Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 6: Environmental Degradation and Management > dESErtIfIcatIon or dESErtISatIon. > p. 17
Armed conflicts are concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, making regional security dynamics a central concern.
Crucial for polity and international relations: frames questions on conflict, peacebuilding, migration and regional stability. Helps frame answers on causes of instability and international responses in African contexts.
- Contemporary World Politics, Textbook in political science for Class XII (NCERT 2025 ed.) > Chapter 5: Security in the Contemporary World > New Sources of Threats > p. 74
Identifying which states are classed as part of the Sahel (e.g., Mali, Mauritania, Chad, Burkina Faso) is essential to map queries about the region.
High-yield for UPSC: many questions link regional classification (Sahel) to issues like drought, governance, and security. Mastering the list of Sahel states helps connect geography with political and environmental topics and permits rapid elimination in comparative questions.
- Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 6: Environmental Degradation and Management > dESErtIfIcatIon or dESErtISatIon. > p. 17
- Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 12: Major Crops and Cropping Patterns in India > Countries on Prime Meridian > p. 79
Military takeovers have occurred in several post‑colonial countries (examples: Pakistan, Maldives interventions), illustrating the phenomenon of armed interventions in governance.
Important for polity and contemporary history: understanding patterns, causes, and examples of coups enables candidates to answer questions on civil‑military relations, democratic breakdown, and regional instability. This concept links to topics on constitutionalism, security, and international responses.
- Democratic Politics-I. Political Science-Class IX . NCERT(Revised ed 2025) > Chapter 1: WHAT IS DEMOCRACY? WHY DEMOCRACY? > Major decisions by elected leaders leaders > p. 4
- Contemporary World Politics, Textbook in political science for Class XII (NCERT 2025 ed.) > Chapter 3: Contemporary South Asia > Overview > p. 30
- Contemporary World Politics, Textbook in political science for Class XII (NCERT 2025 ed.) > Chapter 3: Contemporary South Asia > The Military and Democracy in Pakistan > p. 32
Recurrent drought and desertification in the Sahel create resource scarcity that intensifies local instability and competition.
High‑yield for UPSC because environmental drivers explain long‑term fragility and link geography to security and development. Mastering this aids answers on climate security, migration, and conflict causation and connects to questions on disaster management and rural livelihood stress.
- Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 6: Environmental Degradation and Management > dESErtIfIcatIon or dESErtISatIon. > p. 17
- Environment and Ecology, Majid Hussain (Access publishing 3rd ed.) > Chapter 8: Natural Hazards and Disaster Management > el nino (southern oscillation) and indian Monsoon > p. 54
Sub‑Saharan Africa carries a disproportionate share of contemporary armed conflicts and resultant human insecurity.
Important for framing regional security questions: explains why global conflict burden and humanitarian crises are often discussed in African contexts. Useful across geopolitics, migration, and development essays; helps justify policy prescriptions and international responses.
- Contemporary World Politics, Textbook in political science for Class XII (NCERT 2025 ed.) > Chapter 5: Security in the Contemporary World > New Sources of Threats > p. 74
The 'Alliance of Sahel States' (AES) and the 'Liptako-Gourma' region. The Liptako-Gourma is the tri-border area (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger) that is the epicenter of terrorism. Expect a question on AES withdrawing from ECOWAS or the specific geography of the Liptako-Gourma zone.
The 'Chaos Correlation' Hack: If Statement I describes a chaotic condition (instability) and Statement II describes a chaotic political event (coup) in the same region, and both are true, go with Option A (Explains). In geopolitics, coups and insecurity are a 'vicious cycle'—UPSC treats them as mutually explanatory. Chaos explains chaos.
Geography (GS1) → Security (GS3). The Sahel is the perfect case study for 'Climate Security'. Recurrent Droughts (Geography) → Famine/Resource Competition → Weak States → Terrorism → Military Coups (Security). Use this 'Threat Multiplier' logic in Mains answers.