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Consider the following statements : Statement-I : There is instability and worsening security situation in the Sahel region. Statement-II : There have been military takeovers/coups d'état in several countries of the Sahel region in the recent past. Which one of the following is correct in respect of the above statements ?
Explanation
The correct answer is option A because both statements are factually accurate and Statement-II provides a causal explanation for Statement-I.
Statement-I is correct as the Sahel region has indeed experienced a deteriorating[2] security situation[1], with lack of good governance, risks of collapsing state authority, and potential spillover of instability to neighboring regions[3].
Statement-II is also correct as Mali experienced military coups in September 2020 and April 2021, Burkina Faso had coups in January and September 2022, and Niger experienced a coup in July 2023[4].
Crucially, Statement-II explains Statement-I because the coups d'état in Mali and Burkina Faso were justified by their authors based on widespread popular frustration with the expansion of violence and limitations of security partnerships, which accelerated the collapse of security[5]. Additionally, the worsening security situation was one of the grounds put forward by the soldiers to justify the coup in Niger[6]. This demonstrates a direct causal relationship where military takeovers both resulted from and contributed to the regional instability.
Sources- [1] https://main.un.org/securitycouncil/sites/default/files/25th_suppl_part_viii_advance_version.pdf
- [2] https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2024/09/the-sahels-intertwined-challenges-yabi
- [3] https://www.un.org/counterterrorism/en/cct/counter-terrorism-in-the-sahel
- [4] https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2024/09/the-sahels-intertwined-challenges-yabi
- [5] https://www.amnesty.org/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AFR4388652025ENGLISH.pdf
- [6] https://www.amnesty.org/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AFR4388652025ENGLISH.pdf
PROVENANCE & STUDY PATTERN
Guest previewThis is a classic 'Map-based International Relations' question. The 'Sahel Coup Belt' was the dominant geopolitical story of 2023. This question rewards those who track 'Zones of Conflict' rather than just memorizing static capitals. If you read the International page, this was a sitter; if you relied only on static books, it was invisible.
This question can be broken into the following sub-statements. Tap a statement sentence to jump into its detailed analysis.
- Statement 1: Has the Sahel region experienced increased instability and a worsening security situation in recent years?
- Statement 2: Which Sahel countries have experienced military takeovers or coups d'état in the recent past?
- Statement 3: Have recent military takeovers/coups in Sahel countries contributed to or explained the instability and worsening security situation in the Sahel region?
- Explicitly states a deteriorating security situation in the Sahel.
- Links that deterioration to regional political decisions (e.g., withdrawal from the Group of Five for the Sahel), indicating broader instability.
- Directly says the situation in the Sahel has 'deteriorated dramatically'.
- Connects the deterioration to prolonged security and political crises and to social effects (lost schooling, displacement) that exacerbate insecurity.
- Links lack of good governance and risks of collapsing state authority to increased international focus and assistance for the Sahel.
- Warns of risks of spillover of instability and the need to address terrorism and violent extremism before escalation.
States a broad pattern that most of the world's armed conflicts now occur in subâSaharan Africa, highlighting the region as a present locus of conflict.
A student could map the Sahel within subâSaharan Africa and compare recent conflict incidence/timeâseries or news reports for Sahel countries to judge if the regional share of conflict has risen.
Documents repeated severe droughts and environmental degradation in the Sahel, including major droughts in the 1990s that caused starvation and land pressure.
One can link these recurrent environmental shocks to possible drivers of instability by checking whether drought/famine years coincide with spikes in displacement, protests, or local violence in Sahel countries.
Notes very frequent famine years across the Sahel countries, indicating chronic humanitarian stress that can exacerbate social and political tensions.
A student could compare humanitarian indicators (famine, malnutrition, displacement) over time with security indicators (conflict events, refugee flows) for Sahel states to assess correlation.
Identifies ENSO/drought linkages contributing to widespread droughts in the Sahelâshowing a climatic pattern that can produce recurrent shocks.
Combine this climatic vulnerability with recent climate records and reports of social unrest to evaluate whether climateâdriven stress plausibly contributed to worsening security.
States that low human development often coexists with political turmoil, civil war, famine or high disease incidence, a general rule linking deprivation to instability.
A student could check human development trends for Sahel countries and see if declines or persistently low HDI levels align with increased instability indicators.
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