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If another global financial crisis happens in the near future, which of the following actions/policies are most likely to give some immunity to India? 1. Not depending on short-term foreign borrowings 2. Opening up to more foreign banks 3. Maintaining full capital account convertibility Select the correct answer using the code given below:
Explanation
The correct answer is Option 1 (1 only). In the context of a global financial crisis, the following reasoning explains why Statement 1 provides immunity while others increase vulnerability:
- Statement 1 is correct: Short-term foreign borrowings (External Commercial Borrowings) are highly volatile. During a global crisis, foreign lenders often withdraw capital quickly ("flight to safety"), leading to a liquidity crunch and currency depreciation. Reducing dependence on these loans ensures better macro-economic stability.
- Statement 2 is incorrect: Opening up to more foreign banks increases financial contagion. If parent banks in developed nations face a crisis, their Indian subsidiaries may restrict lending or pull out capital, transmitting the global shock directly into the domestic economy.
- Statement 3 is incorrect: Full Capital Account Convertibility allows local and foreign investors to move unlimited money in and out of the country. During a crisis, this could trigger massive capital flight, crashing the Rupee and depleting foreign exchange reserves.
Thus, only cautious debt management (Statement 1) offers a protective buffer against external shocks.
PROVENANCE & STUDY PATTERN
Guest previewThis is a classic 'Conceptual Application' question. It doesn't ask for data but tests your grasp of the 'Stability vs. Exposure' trade-off in the External Sector. If you understood why India survived the 1997 and 2008 crises (limited exposure), this was a sitter.
This question can be broken into the following sub-statements. Tap a statement sentence to jump into its detailed analysis.
- Statement 1: Is reducing India's dependence on short-term foreign borrowings likely to increase India's resilience to or immunity from a future global financial crisis?
- Statement 2: Is opening India's banking sector to more foreign banks likely to increase India's resilience to or immunity from a future global financial crisis?
- Statement 3: Is maintaining full capital account convertibility likely to increase India's resilience to or immunity from a future global financial crisis?
- Identifies short-term external debt as a prominent capital-account item and makes the short-term debt / forex reserves ratio a relevant yardstick for reserve adequacy.
- Implicates that high short-term debt relative to reserves reduces a country's buffer against external shocks, so reducing it would improve resilience.
- Specifically links external exposure to global vulnerabilities such as sudden capital flight and contagion (transmission of foreign financial crises).
- Reducing short-term foreign borrowings would directly lower the risk vectors named (capital flight, speculative attacks, contagion).
- Provides the quantitative context: short-term debt is a significant component of India's external debt (21.6%), so changes in this component materially affect overall external vulnerability.
- Lists composition and currency shares of external debt, underscoring why short-term and dollar-denominated liabilities matter for crisis exposure.
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