Question map
If another global financial crisis happens in the near future, which of the following actions/policies are most likely to give some immunity to India? 1. Not depending on short-term foreign borrowings 2. Opening up to more foreign banks 3. Maintaining full capital account convertibility Select the correct answer using the code given below:
Explanation
The correct answer is option C (3 only).
The ratio of short-term debt to forex reserves has emerged as a relevant yardstick to determine reserve adequacy[1], which suggests that managing short-term external debt is important for stability. Therefore, not depending on short-term foreign borrowings (Statement 1) would provide immunity during a financial crisis.
Regarding Statement 2, opening up to more foreign banks would actually increase vulnerability rather than provide immunity. It exposes the economy to global vulnerabilities, with risks including sudden capital flight, speculative attacks, and contagion effect—the transmission of financial crisis effects from other countries to the Indian economy[2].
For Statement 3, maintaining full capital account convertibility would similarly increase vulnerability. While there are benefits to be reaped from a more open capital account, international experience shows that this could impose tremendous pressures on the financial system, hence certain preconditions were indicated for capital account convertibility in India[3].
Therefore, only limiting short-term foreign borrowings (Statement 1) would provide immunity, making option C correct.
Sources- [1] Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 17: India’s Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade > RESERVE ADEQUACY FEW MONTHS OF IMPORTS RULE VERSUS GUIDOTTI-GREENSPAN RULE > p. 497
- [2] Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 17: India’s Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade > Limitations > p. 499
PROVENANCE & STUDY PATTERN
Full viewThis is a classic 'Conceptual Application' question. It moves beyond defining terms (like CAC or Short-term debt) to testing their functional implications during a crisis. The core logic is simple: Immunity = Isolation from contagion. If you understood why India survived the 2008 crisis (limited exposure), this was a sitter.
This question can be broken into the following sub-statements. Tap a statement sentence to jump into its detailed analysis.
- Statement 1: Would minimizing India's reliance on short-term foreign borrowings increase India's resilience to a global financial crisis?
- Statement 2: Would opening up India's banking sector to more foreign banks increase India's resilience to a global financial crisis?
- Statement 3: Would maintaining full capital account convertibility increase India's resilience to a global financial crisis?
- Explicitly identifies short-term external debt as a key capital-account item and states the ratio of short-term debt to forex reserves is a relevant yardstick for reserve adequacy.
- Implies high short-term debt relative to reserves raises vulnerability; reducing short-term borrowings would improve reserve adequacy and shock-absorption.
- Links openness/external borrowings to global vulnerabilities: risk of sudden capital flight, speculative attacks and contagion from foreign crises.
- Suggests that exposure via external liabilities can transmit global financial shocks to the domestic economy, so lowering such exposure reduces transmission risk.
- Shows foreign-currency borrowing exposes borrowers to exchange-rate risk (depreciation raising repayment costs).
- Illustrates that shifting to rupee-denominated alternatives (e.g., Masala Bonds) was motivated by reducing such external-vulnerability.
- Directly recommends accelerating liberalisation of the financial sector, explicitly citing 'opening up to branch banking by foreign banks'.
- States that 'more open foreign entry will be in India’s own self-interest in the short, medium and long term', implying positive effects from foreign bank entry.
- Describes measures used during the Global Financial Crisis to support projects, including adapting structures to attract different types of investor.
- Suggests that attracting a broader set of investors (which could include foreign banks) is a policy tool used to bolster finance during crises.
The prior exam question explicitly lists 'opening up to more foreign banks' alongside 'not depending on short-term foreign borrowings' as possible policies to give India some immunity to a global financial crisis, indicating this is a recognized policy candidate.
A student could treat this as a policy hypothesis and compare historical episodes or cross-country evidence on whether greater foreign-bank presence correlated with crisis resilience.
Describes the typical activities of foreign banks in India (trade finance, ECBs, wholesale lending, investment banking, treasury), showing they bring cross-border funding and specialized services.
One could extend this by assessing whether these activities diversify funding sources and services during global stress, using data on foreign-bank market share and funding stability.
States that all Scheduled Commercial Banks and Foreign Private Banks with sizeable presence must meet priority-sector lending targets, implying foreign banks are regulated to support domestic credit needs.
A student could examine whether such regulatory integration means foreign banks' behavior during crises aligns with domestic stability goals or instead constrains their crisis responses.
Explains that larger consolidated banks can compete with global banks and support larger lending and financial capacity, suggesting scale and integration affect crisis resilience.
One could compare whether increased foreign-bank presence or larger domestic banks better provides scale and cushioning in crises, using balance-sheet size and lending data.
Notes that more foreign investment in government securities affects government external debt and liquidity of Indian government bonds, linking foreign capital flows to domestic financial conditions.
A student could explore whether opening banks to foreigners increases cross-border portfolio flows and whether that raises vulnerability to sudden stops in a crisis.
- Explicitly notes that while a more open capital account has benefits, international experience shows it “could impose tremendous pressures on the financial system.”
- Says the Tarapore Committee set out preconditions for convertibility, implying CAC is not an automatic source of resilience and needs safeguards.
- Links episodes of financial crises (1998) to capital account opening, noting such crises caused policymakers and the IMF to 'reconsider its benefits and costs.'
- Highlights that convertibility is a contested choice for countries with structural financial weaknesses, implying possible vulnerability rather than increased resilience.
- Places capital account liberalization in the context of the 1997–98 crises and describes the Tarapore Committee review — indicating convertibility decisions were driven by crisis experience.
- Shows convertibility has been subject to formal, cautious review rather than assumed to automatically improve crisis resilience.
Explains that full capital account convertibility can destabilize an economy via massive capital flows and is introduced only when macro parameters are stable and reserves can absorb outflows.
A student could check India's current fiscal/external metrics and reserve buffers to judge whether full convertibility would likely increase or reduce shock-absorption capacity.
Lists specific risks from capital account convertibility — exposure to global vulnerabilities, sudden capital flight, speculative attacks and contagion.
A student could compare past crisis episodes (e.g., sudden stops) and timelines of capital flight to assess if convertibility would have amplified those episodes for India.
Notes that attracting foreign currency flows (e.g., via global bond indices) increases exchange rate risk and can cause rupee volatility when external conditions turn adverse.
Using basic facts about India's import dependence and forex exposure, a student could estimate how exchange rate volatility under full convertibility might affect macro stability during a global shock.
Shows the accounting link: current account + capital account = change in forex reserves, so capital flows directly alter reserve dynamics.
A student could simulate how an abrupt reversal in capital account (e.g., capital outflow) would deplete reserves and affect resilience under full convertibility.
Describes Liberalised Remittance Scheme as 'baby steps' toward dismantling capital controls and notes the normative view that capital controls don't fit a liberalised economy.
A student could use India's incremental liberalisation experience to evaluate whether gradual moves or full convertibility are likely to improve resilience in crises.
- [THE VERDICT]: Conceptual Sitter. Solvable purely by understanding the 'Contagion Effect'. Source: Standard Macroeconomics (External Sector chapter).
- [THE CONCEPTUAL TRIGGER]: External Sector Vulnerability & The Impossible Trinity (Mundell-Fleming Model).
- [THE HORIZONTAL EXPANSION]: 1. Guidotti-Greenspan Rule (Reserves should cover 100% of short-term external debt). 2. Tarapore Committee Preconditions (Fiscal Deficit <3.5%, Inflation 3-5%, NPAs <5%). 3. 'Original Sin' in Economics (borrowing in foreign currency). 4. Masala Bonds (Rupee-denominated = no exchange risk). 5. NEER vs REER (Trade competitiveness metrics).
- [THE STRATEGIC METACOGNITION]: Don't just memorize definitions. Always ask the 'Stress Test' question: 'If the world economy crashes, does this policy act as a shield or a conduit?' Policies that increase integration (Foreign banks, Full CAC) act as conduits for shock.
Reference 5 makes the short-term-debt-to-reserves ratio a central metric for reserve adequacy and vulnerability to external shocks.
High-yield for UPSC: explains why policymakers monitor reserves beyond import cover, links to macro-stability and crisis management. Connects to balance of payments, exchange rate policy, and fiscal/monetary buffers; useful for questions on external sector resilience and policy prescriptions.
- Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 17: India’s Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade > RESERVE ADEQUACY FEW MONTHS OF IMPORTS RULE VERSUS GUIDOTTI-GREENSPAN RULE > p. 497
Reference 4 lists sudden capital flight, speculative attacks and contagion as risks arising from external openness/borrowing.
Important for framing arguments on benefits vs. risks of capital account liberalization. Links to topics like crisis transmission, capital controls, and macroprudential measures — recurrent in GS papers and essays.
- Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 17: India’s Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade > Limitations > p. 499
Reference 3 explains how foreign-currency borrowing raises repayment costs upon depreciation and motivates rupee-denominated alternatives.
Practically useful: helps answer questions on corporate/sovereign debt management, instruments to reduce FX exposure (e.g., Masala Bonds), and policy measures to reduce external vulnerabilities.
- Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 9: Agriculture > MASALA BOND > p. 266
Reference evidence shows foreign banks in India concentrate on trade finance, external commercial borrowings, wholesale lending, investment banking and treasury services — relevant to how they might affect systemic resilience.
High-yield for UPSC: understanding what foreign banks actually do clarifies potential channels (capital, treasury operations, trade credit) through which they could help or harm crisis resilience. Links to topics on external finance, balance of payments and banking structure; useful for questions on prudential regulation and financial stability.
- Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 7: Money and Banking > 24. Private Sector Foreign Banks > p. 178
Evidence states that foreign private banks with a sizeable presence are subject to mandated priority sector lending, which constrains how foreign banks allocate credit during stress.
Important for UPSC aspirants because regulatory constraints shape whether foreign banks bolster or bypass domestic vulnerable sectors in crises. Connects to banking regulation, financial inclusion and crisis management policy — useful for policy-evaluation and reform questions.
- Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 8: Financial Market > Priority Sector Lending > p. 240
References note Indian banks' balance-sheet size and low domestic bank credit to private sector relative to peers — this contextualizes the possible need for additional banking capacity (including foreign banks) to improve resilience.
Crucial macro-financial metric for UPSC: banking depth/credit-to-GDP ratios influence growth and shock absorption. Helps frame arguments on whether opening to foreign banks addresses capacity gaps or creates vulnerabilities; links to topics on financial sector reforms and macroprudential policy.
- Indian Economy, Vivek Singh (7th ed. 2023-24) > Chapter 3: Money and Banking - Part II > 3.3 Should large corporate be allowed to open their own banks? > p. 131
References state that full capital account convertibility can destabilize an economy and should be introduced only after macro parameters are stable and resilience to capital outflows exists.
High-yield for UPSC: clarifies the policy trade-off between openness and stability, links to fiscal/monetary policy and external sector management, and helps craft reasoned arguments on sequencing reforms and safeguards required before liberalisation.
- Indian Economy, Vivek Singh (7th ed. 2023-24) > Chapter 2: Money and Banking- Part I > Capital Account Convertibility: > p. 109
- Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 17: India’s Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade > Limitations > p. 499
The 'Impossible Trinity' (Trilemma): A country cannot simultaneously have 1) A fixed foreign exchange rate, 2) Free capital movement (Full CAC), and 3) An independent monetary policy. India chooses 3 and a mix of 1 & 2. Expect a question on which of these India sacrifices during a rupee slide.
Apply the 'Quarantine Logic'. The question asks for 'Immunity' (protection from infection).
- Statement 2 (More foreign banks) = More contact with infected global markets. (Eliminate)
- Statement 3 (Full Convertibility) = Removing the quarantine doors. (Eliminate)
- Statement 1 (Less borrowing) = Less dependency on outsiders. (Keep)
Result: Option A is the only logical survivor.
Mains GS-3 (Economic Security): Link 'Capital Account Convertibility' to 'National Sovereignty'. Full CAC limits the RBI's ability to control the currency, making the economy vulnerable to speculative attacks (like the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis), effectively surrendering economic sovereignty to global markets.