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Q59 (IAS/2018) Economy › Agriculture & Rural Economy › Sustainable farming practices Official Key

If another global financial crisis happens in the near future, which of the following actions/policies are most likely to give some immunity to India? 1. Not depending on short-term foreign borrowings 2. Opening up to more foreign banks 3. Maintaining full capital account convertibility Select the correct answer using the code given below:

Result
Your answer:  ·  Correct: C
Explanation

The correct answer is option C (3 only).

The ratio of short-term debt to forex reserves has emerged as a relevant yardstick to determine reserve adequacy[1], which suggests that managing short-term external debt is important for stability. Therefore, not depending on short-term foreign borrowings (Statement 1) would provide immunity during a financial crisis.

Regarding Statement 2, opening up to more foreign banks would actually increase vulnerability rather than provide immunity. It exposes the economy to global vulnerabilities, with risks including sudden capital flight, speculative attacks, and contagion effect—the transmission of financial crisis effects from other countries to the Indian economy[2].

For Statement 3, maintaining full capital account convertibility would similarly increase vulnerability. While there are benefits to be reaped from a more open capital account, international experience shows that this could impose tremendous pressures on the financial system, hence certain preconditions were indicated for capital account convertibility in India[3].

Therefore, only limiting short-term foreign borrowings (Statement 1) would provide immunity, making option C correct.

Sources
  1. [1] Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 17: India’s Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade > RESERVE ADEQUACY FEW MONTHS OF IMPORTS RULE VERSUS GUIDOTTI-GREENSPAN RULE > p. 497
  2. [2] Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 17: India’s Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade > Limitations > p. 499
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PROVENANCE & STUDY PATTERN
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Don’t just practise – reverse-engineer the question. This panel shows where this PYQ came from (books / web), how the examiner broke it into hidden statements, and which nearby micro-concepts you were supposed to learn from it. Treat it like an autopsy of the question: what might have triggered it, which exact lines in the book matter, and what linked ideas you should carry forward to future questions.
Q. If another global financial crisis happens in the near future, which of the following actions/policies are most likely to give some immun…
At a glance
Origin: Books + Current Affairs Fairness: Low / Borderline fairness Books / CA: 3.3/10 · 6.7/10

This is a classic 'Conceptual Application' question. It moves beyond defining terms (like CAC or Short-term debt) to testing their functional implications during a crisis. The core logic is simple: Immunity = Isolation from contagion. If you understood why India survived the 2008 crisis (limited exposure), this was a sitter.

How this question is built

This question can be broken into the following sub-statements. Tap a statement sentence to jump into its detailed analysis.

Statement 1
Would minimizing India's reliance on short-term foreign borrowings increase India's resilience to a global financial crisis?
Origin: Direct from books Fairness: Straightforward Book-answerable
From standard books
Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 17: India’s Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade > RESERVE ADEQUACY FEW MONTHS OF IMPORTS RULE VERSUS GUIDOTTI-GREENSPAN RULE > p. 497
Presence: 5/5
“RESERVE ADEQUACY: FEW MONTHS OF IMPORTS RULE VERSUS GUIDOTTI-GREENSPAN RULE • Traditionally, an adequate amount of forex reserve was determined in terms of reserves equivalent for few months of imports. However, with increasing importance of capital account transactions in BOP, this approach is now becoming less relevant.• Short-term external debt among various capital account transactions has gained prominence now under BOP.• Thus, the ratio of short-term debt to forex reserves has emerged as a relevant yardstick to determine reserve adequacy. Component-wise Indian forex reserves - explained in the previous chapter. 110000 India's Forex reserves cover of imports as on June ø 2020 was 14.8 months.”
Why this source?
  • Explicitly identifies short-term external debt as a key capital-account item and states the ratio of short-term debt to forex reserves is a relevant yardstick for reserve adequacy.
  • Implies high short-term debt relative to reserves raises vulnerability; reducing short-term borrowings would improve reserve adequacy and shock-absorption.
Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 17: India’s Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade > Limitations > p. 499
Presence: 4/5
“• It exposes the economy to global vulnerabilities. \bullet• There remains a fear of sudden capital flight which may also lead to increase in current account deficit.\bullet Risk of speculative attacks.\bullet No ceiling on external debt may be disastrous.\bullet Zontagion effect, i.e., more chances of transmission of the effect of financial crisis occurring in a particular country to the Indian economy. As per the Tarapore Committee, there are some pre-conditions which need to be fulfilled before going for full convertibility of rupee: • 1. Reduce fiscal deficit to 3.5 per cent of GDP. • 2. Reduce public debt by setting up consolidated sinking fund. • 3.”
Why this source?
  • Links openness/external borrowings to global vulnerabilities: risk of sudden capital flight, speculative attacks and contagion from foreign crises.
  • Suggests that exposure via external liabilities can transmit global financial shocks to the domestic economy, so lowering such exposure reduces transmission risk.
Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 9: Agriculture > MASALA BOND > p. 266
Presence: 4/5
“Before the introduction of Masala Bonds, companies and financial institutions borrowed through issuing bonds in the overseas markets such as the US, the UK, Singapore, etc., in foreign currencies because of the easy availability of funds and at lower interest rates. This exposed the Indian borrowers to foreign currency exchange risks. Depreciation in rupee led to increase in their cost of capital. For example, XYZ Ltd. borrowed $1 million in 2020 when $1 equalled to ₹70. Total borrowing was ₹7 crore in rupees. Now, let's say in 2021, $1 has become ₹75 due to depreciation of rupee. XYZ Ltd. wants to repay its loan in 2021.”
Why this source?
  • Shows foreign-currency borrowing exposes borrowers to exchange-rate risk (depreciation raising repayment costs).
  • Illustrates that shifting to rupee-denominated alternatives (e.g., Masala Bonds) was motivated by reducing such external-vulnerability.
Statement 2
Would opening up India's banking sector to more foreign banks increase India's resilience to a global financial crisis?
Origin: Web / Current Affairs Fairness: CA heavy Web-answerable

Web source
Presence: 5/5
"In addition, Indian authorities should bring forward their liberalisation plans for the financial sector (e.g., opening up to branch banking by foreign banks) ... the HPEC believes that more open foreign entry will be in India’s own self-interest in the short, medium and long term."
Why this source?
  • Directly recommends accelerating liberalisation of the financial sector, explicitly citing 'opening up to branch banking by foreign banks'.
  • States that 'more open foreign entry will be in India’s own self-interest in the short, medium and long term', implying positive effects from foreign bank entry.
Web source
Presence: 3/5
"Provides ideas for governments on ways to support PPPs during the Global Financial Crisis. These include changes to procurement approaches, providing state guarantees or co-lending, particularly as a short-term measure, and adapting PPP structures to attract different types of investor."
Why this source?
  • Describes measures used during the Global Financial Crisis to support projects, including adapting structures to attract different types of investor.
  • Suggests that attracting a broader set of investors (which could include foreign banks) is a policy tool used to bolster finance during crises.

Indian Economy, Vivek Singh (7th ed. 2023-24) > Chapter 2: Money and Banking- Part I > 2.31 Previous Years Questions > p. 120
Strength: 4/5
“If another global financial crisis happens in the near future, which of the following actions/policies are most likely to give some immunity to India? [2020] • 1. Not depending on short-term foreign borrowings• 2. Opening up to more foreign banks• 3. Maintaining full capital account convertibility Select the correct answer using the code given below: • (a) 1 only• (b) 1 and 2 only• (c) 3 only• (d) 1, 2 and 3• 39. If you withdraw Rs. 1,00,000 in cash from your demand deposit account at your bank, the immediate effect on aggregate money supply in the economy will be [2020] • (a) To reduce it by Rs.”
Why relevant

The prior exam question explicitly lists 'opening up to more foreign banks' alongside 'not depending on short-term foreign borrowings' as possible policies to give India some immunity to a global financial crisis, indicating this is a recognized policy candidate.

How to extend

A student could treat this as a policy hypothesis and compare historical episodes or cross-country evidence on whether greater foreign-bank presence correlated with crisis resilience.

Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 7: Money and Banking > 24. Private Sector Foreign Banks > p. 178
Strength: 4/5
“RBI, in 2005, released a first-ever document for the presence of Foreign Banks in India. Foreign Banks that desire to open a branch in India need to apply to RBI stating all the details about their shareholders' financial position, etc. Most of the Foreign Banks are focussed on trade finance, external commercial borrowings, wholesale lending, investment banking and treasury services. Examples of Private Sector Foreign Banks include CitiBank, HSBC, Deutsche Bank, American Express, etc.”
Why relevant

Describes the typical activities of foreign banks in India (trade finance, ECBs, wholesale lending, investment banking, treasury), showing they bring cross-border funding and specialized services.

How to extend

One could extend this by assessing whether these activities diversify funding sources and services during global stress, using data on foreign-bank market share and funding stability.

Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 8: Financial Market > Priority Sector Lending > p. 240
Strength: 3/5
“RBI mandates banks to lend a certain portion of their funds to specified vulnerable sectors of the economy, which otherwise may not be attractive for banks from the profitability point of view. All Scheduled Commercial Banks and Foreign Private Banks (with a sizeable presence in India) are mandated to set aside 40 per cent of their Adjusted Net Bank Credit (ANDC) for lending to these sectors.”
Why relevant

States that all Scheduled Commercial Banks and Foreign Private Banks with sizeable presence must meet priority-sector lending targets, implying foreign banks are regulated to support domestic credit needs.

How to extend

A student could examine whether such regulatory integration means foreign banks' behavior during crises aligns with domestic stability goals or instead constrains their crisis responses.

Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 7: Money and Banking > Benefits of such amalgamation: > p. 177
Strength: 3/5
“• This mega consolidation would help create banks that can compete with global banks effectively. • Greater scale and synergy through consolidation would lead to cost benefits to these banks. • It will also provide impetus to amalgamated banks by increasing their ability to support larger lending and greater financial capacity. • Access to a wider talent pool and a larger database will enhance their competitive advantage. Therefore, at present, there are following 12 PSBs (11 Nationalised Banks + SBI). They are: • 1. Punjab National Bank (PNB) • 2. Bank of Baroda • 3. Bank of India • 4.”
Why relevant

Explains that larger consolidated banks can compete with global banks and support larger lending and financial capacity, suggesting scale and integration affect crisis resilience.

How to extend

One could compare whether increased foreign-bank presence or larger domestic banks better provides scale and cushioning in crises, using balance-sheet size and lending data.

Indian Economy, Vivek Singh (7th ed. 2023-24) > Chapter 2: Money and Banking- Part I > Indian Govt. securities will very soon join Global Bond Index > p. 48
Strength: 3/5
“This investment by foreigners will be treated as Govt. of India's external Debt.• More investment by foreigners in the Govt. of India bonds will lead to a lesser interest rate on Govt. bonds and hence lesser yield and this will also increase liquidity (more trade and easy conversion into cash) in Indian Govt. securities. This will also ease pressure on Govt. borrowing from the domestic market and hence domestic interest rate and yield will also come down.• Right now, when foreign investors (NRIs, FPIs) purchase corporate bonds or Govt. bonds in India then they require approval from SEBI. But if an investor wants to invest in Govt. securities through Global Bond Index, then this prior approval from SEBI needs to be removed.• Earlier there was a cap/ceiling as to how much non-residents (foreign) investors can invest in bonds in India.”
Why relevant

Notes that more foreign investment in government securities affects government external debt and liquidity of Indian government bonds, linking foreign capital flows to domestic financial conditions.

How to extend

A student could explore whether opening banks to foreigners increases cross-border portfolio flows and whether that raises vulnerability to sudden stops in a crisis.

Statement 3
Would maintaining full capital account convertibility increase India's resilience to a global financial crisis?
Origin: Web / Current Affairs Fairness: CA heavy Web-answerable

Web source
Presence: 5/5
"although there are benefits to be reaped from a more open capital account, international experience shows that this could impose tremendous pressures on the financial system. Hence, the Committee indicated certain signposts or preconditions for capital account convertibility in India."
Why this source?
  • Explicitly notes that while a more open capital account has benefits, international experience shows it “could impose tremendous pressures on the financial system.”
  • Says the Tarapore Committee set out preconditions for convertibility, implying CAC is not an automatic source of resilience and needs safeguards.
Web source
Presence: 4/5
"A series of similar mini-crises occurred elsewhere in 1998 engulfing Russia and Latin America... Capital account opening resumed but with reduced momentum as the IMF and others began to reconsider its benefits and costs."
Why this source?
  • Links episodes of financial crises (1998) to capital account opening, noting such crises caused policymakers and the IMF to 'reconsider its benefits and costs.'
  • Highlights that convertibility is a contested choice for countries with structural financial weaknesses, implying possible vulnerability rather than increased resilience.
Web source
Presence: 3/5
"The work on convertibility of the capital account started before the South East Asian Crisis of 1997. India committed toward an appropriate road map for liberalizing the restrictions on capital transactions through a Committee on Capital Account Convertibility (CAC)."
Why this source?
  • Places capital account liberalization in the context of the 1997–98 crises and describes the Tarapore Committee review — indicating convertibility decisions were driven by crisis experience.
  • Shows convertibility has been subject to formal, cautious review rather than assumed to automatically improve crisis resilience.

Indian Economy, Vivek Singh (7th ed. 2023-24) > Chapter 2: Money and Banking- Part I > Capital Account Convertibility: > p. 109
Strength: 5/5
“But the flip side is that it could destabilize an economy due to massive capital flows in and out of the country.• Rupee will move to full capital account convertibility once the macroeconomic parameters like current account deficit, fiscal deficit, external debt, inflation become stable at low range and there is resilience to absorb shocks related to capital outflows.• Since capital convertibility is risky and makes foreign exchange rate more volatile, it is introduced only sometime after the introduction of convertibility on current account when exchange rate of currency of a country is relatively stable, deficit in balance of payments is well under control and enough foreign exchange reserves are available with the Central Bank.• Moving in the direction of allowing full capital account convertibility, in March 2020 RBI introduced 'Fully Accessible Route (FAR)' under which it removed the cap/ceiling and allowed full non-resident (foreign) investors investments in Government securities.”
Why relevant

Explains that full capital account convertibility can destabilize an economy via massive capital flows and is introduced only when macro parameters are stable and reserves can absorb outflows.

How to extend

A student could check India's current fiscal/external metrics and reserve buffers to judge whether full convertibility would likely increase or reduce shock-absorption capacity.

Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 17: India’s Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade > Limitations > p. 499
Strength: 5/5
“• It exposes the economy to global vulnerabilities. \bullet• There remains a fear of sudden capital flight which may also lead to increase in current account deficit.\bullet Risk of speculative attacks.\bullet No ceiling on external debt may be disastrous.\bullet Zontagion effect, i.e., more chances of transmission of the effect of financial crisis occurring in a particular country to the Indian economy. As per the Tarapore Committee, there are some pre-conditions which need to be fulfilled before going for full convertibility of rupee: • 1. Reduce fiscal deficit to 3.5 per cent of GDP. • 2. Reduce public debt by setting up consolidated sinking fund. • 3.”
Why relevant

Lists specific risks from capital account convertibility — exposure to global vulnerabilities, sudden capital flight, speculative attacks and contagion.

How to extend

A student could compare past crisis episodes (e.g., sudden stops) and timelines of capital flight to assess if convertibility would have amplified those episodes for India.

Indian Economy, Vivek Singh (7th ed. 2023-24) > Chapter 2: Money and Banking- Part I > Indian Govt. securities will very soon join Global Bond Index > p. 48
Strength: 4/5
“Issuing debt in foreign currencies or listing of bonds in international indices, while attracting greater flows, could expose the country to a greater degree of exchange rate risk and potentially lead to volatility in the rupee if external conditions were to turn adverse.• When foreign investors will purchase Govt. of India bonds from the Global bond index then Govt. of India will get funds in dollars/foreign currency and then it will convert in Rupee (for its spending in India) and after maturity of the bonds, Govt. of India will have to first convert rupees (which it will get through tax and other receipts) into dollars/foreign currency to repay to the investors.”
Why relevant

Notes that attracting foreign currency flows (e.g., via global bond indices) increases exchange rate risk and can cause rupee volatility when external conditions turn adverse.

How to extend

Using basic facts about India's import dependence and forex exposure, a student could estimate how exchange rate volatility under full convertibility might affect macro stability during a global shock.

Indian Economy, Vivek Singh (7th ed. 2023-24) > Chapter 2: Money and Banking- Part I > 2.27 Balance of Payment (BoP) > p. 108
Strength: 4/5
“Assume that on 31st March 2022, RBI was having foreign exchange reserve (Forex) of $ 650 billion. Suppose, in the FY 2022-23, there was deficit in current account balance of $ 100 billion and a surplus in capital account balance of $ 150 billion. So, the overall balance of payment will be + $ 50 billion in the FY 2022-23. Since we have earned net foreign exchange worth $ 50 billion in the FY 2022-23, so our foreign exchange reserves will increase at the end of the financial year to $ 700 billion. Current A/c + Capital A/c = Overall balance of payment = Change in Forex Reserves The balance of payment surplus or deficit is obtained after adding the current account and capital account balance which is then added or subtracted from the forex reserves.”
Why relevant

Shows the accounting link: current account + capital account = change in forex reserves, so capital flows directly alter reserve dynamics.

How to extend

A student could simulate how an abrupt reversal in capital account (e.g., capital outflow) would deplete reserves and affect resilience under full convertibility.

Indian Economy, Vivek Singh (7th ed. 2023-24) > Chapter 2: Money and Banking- Part I > Liberalized Remittance Scheme (LRS) > p. 110
Strength: 3/5
“• Under LRS, all resident individuals (in India) can freely (without seeking specific approvals) remit/send $250,000 overseas every financial year for a permissible set of current or capital account transactions. Remittances are permitted for overseas education, travel, medical treatment and purchase of shares and property, apart from maintenance of relatives living abroad, gifting and donations. Individuals can also open, maintain and hold foreign currency accounts with overseas banks for carrying out transactions.• The LRS represents India's baby steps towards dismantling controls on foreign exchange movements in and out of the country. It has allowed large numbers of Indians to study abroad and diversify their portfolios from purely desi stocks and property.• Ideally speaking, capital controls in any form have no place in a liberalised economy.”
Why relevant

Describes Liberalised Remittance Scheme as 'baby steps' toward dismantling capital controls and notes the normative view that capital controls don't fit a liberalised economy.

How to extend

A student could use India's incremental liberalisation experience to evaluate whether gradual moves or full convertibility are likely to improve resilience in crises.

Pattern takeaway: UPSC consistently tests the 'Stability vs. Growth' trade-off. Liberalization (CAC, Foreign Banks) is good for growth but bad for stability during crises. The exam rewards candidates who can distinguish between 'Fair weather policies' and 'Crisis shields'.
How you should have studied
  1. [THE VERDICT]: Conceptual Sitter. Solvable purely by understanding the 'Contagion Effect'. Source: Standard Macroeconomics (External Sector chapter).
  2. [THE CONCEPTUAL TRIGGER]: External Sector Vulnerability & The Impossible Trinity (Mundell-Fleming Model).
  3. [THE HORIZONTAL EXPANSION]: 1. Guidotti-Greenspan Rule (Reserves should cover 100% of short-term external debt). 2. Tarapore Committee Preconditions (Fiscal Deficit <3.5%, Inflation 3-5%, NPAs <5%). 3. 'Original Sin' in Economics (borrowing in foreign currency). 4. Masala Bonds (Rupee-denominated = no exchange risk). 5. NEER vs REER (Trade competitiveness metrics).
  4. [THE STRATEGIC METACOGNITION]: Don't just memorize definitions. Always ask the 'Stress Test' question: 'If the world economy crashes, does this policy act as a shield or a conduit?' Policies that increase integration (Foreign banks, Full CAC) act as conduits for shock.
Concept hooks from this question
📌 Adjacent topic to master
S1
👉 Short-term external debt vs. reserve adequacy
💡 The insight

Reference 5 makes the short-term-debt-to-reserves ratio a central metric for reserve adequacy and vulnerability to external shocks.

High-yield for UPSC: explains why policymakers monitor reserves beyond import cover, links to macro-stability and crisis management. Connects to balance of payments, exchange rate policy, and fiscal/monetary buffers; useful for questions on external sector resilience and policy prescriptions.

📚 Reading List :
  • Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 17: India’s Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade > RESERVE ADEQUACY FEW MONTHS OF IMPORTS RULE VERSUS GUIDOTTI-GREENSPAN RULE > p. 497
🔗 Anchor: "Would minimizing India's reliance on short-term foreign borrowings increase Indi..."
📌 Adjacent topic to master
S1
👉 Capital-account openness and systemic vulnerability
💡 The insight

Reference 4 lists sudden capital flight, speculative attacks and contagion as risks arising from external openness/borrowing.

Important for framing arguments on benefits vs. risks of capital account liberalization. Links to topics like crisis transmission, capital controls, and macroprudential measures — recurrent in GS papers and essays.

📚 Reading List :
  • Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 17: India’s Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade > Limitations > p. 499
🔗 Anchor: "Would minimizing India's reliance on short-term foreign borrowings increase Indi..."
📌 Adjacent topic to master
S1
👉 Foreign-currency borrowing and exchange-rate risk (Masala Bonds as mitigation)
💡 The insight

Reference 3 explains how foreign-currency borrowing raises repayment costs upon depreciation and motivates rupee-denominated alternatives.

Practically useful: helps answer questions on corporate/sovereign debt management, instruments to reduce FX exposure (e.g., Masala Bonds), and policy measures to reduce external vulnerabilities.

📚 Reading List :
  • Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 9: Agriculture > MASALA BOND > p. 266
🔗 Anchor: "Would minimizing India's reliance on short-term foreign borrowings increase Indi..."
📌 Adjacent topic to master
S2
👉 Functions and Focus Areas of Foreign Banks
💡 The insight

Reference evidence shows foreign banks in India concentrate on trade finance, external commercial borrowings, wholesale lending, investment banking and treasury services — relevant to how they might affect systemic resilience.

High-yield for UPSC: understanding what foreign banks actually do clarifies potential channels (capital, treasury operations, trade credit) through which they could help or harm crisis resilience. Links to topics on external finance, balance of payments and banking structure; useful for questions on prudential regulation and financial stability.

📚 Reading List :
  • Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 7: Money and Banking > 24. Private Sector Foreign Banks > p. 178
🔗 Anchor: "Would opening up India's banking sector to more foreign banks increase India's r..."
📌 Adjacent topic to master
S2
👉 Priority Sector Lending Obligations for Foreign Banks
💡 The insight

Evidence states that foreign private banks with a sizeable presence are subject to mandated priority sector lending, which constrains how foreign banks allocate credit during stress.

Important for UPSC aspirants because regulatory constraints shape whether foreign banks bolster or bypass domestic vulnerable sectors in crises. Connects to banking regulation, financial inclusion and crisis management policy — useful for policy-evaluation and reform questions.

📚 Reading List :
  • Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 8: Financial Market > Priority Sector Lending > p. 240
🔗 Anchor: "Would opening up India's banking sector to more foreign banks increase India's r..."
📌 Adjacent topic to master
S2
👉 Banking Depth (Bank Assets / GDP) and Credit to Private Sector
💡 The insight

References note Indian banks' balance-sheet size and low domestic bank credit to private sector relative to peers — this contextualizes the possible need for additional banking capacity (including foreign banks) to improve resilience.

Crucial macro-financial metric for UPSC: banking depth/credit-to-GDP ratios influence growth and shock absorption. Helps frame arguments on whether opening to foreign banks addresses capacity gaps or creates vulnerabilities; links to topics on financial sector reforms and macroprudential policy.

📚 Reading List :
  • Indian Economy, Vivek Singh (7th ed. 2023-24) > Chapter 3: Money and Banking - Part II > 3.3 Should large corporate be allowed to open their own banks? > p. 131
🔗 Anchor: "Would opening up India's banking sector to more foreign banks increase India's r..."
📌 Adjacent topic to master
S3
👉 Capital Account Convertibility: Risks and Preconditions
💡 The insight

References state that full capital account convertibility can destabilize an economy and should be introduced only after macro parameters are stable and resilience to capital outflows exists.

High-yield for UPSC: clarifies the policy trade-off between openness and stability, links to fiscal/monetary policy and external sector management, and helps craft reasoned arguments on sequencing reforms and safeguards required before liberalisation.

📚 Reading List :
  • Indian Economy, Vivek Singh (7th ed. 2023-24) > Chapter 2: Money and Banking- Part I > Capital Account Convertibility: > p. 109
  • Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania .(ed 2nd 2021-22) > Chapter 17: India’s Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade > Limitations > p. 499
🔗 Anchor: "Would maintaining full capital account convertibility increase India's resilienc..."
🌑 The Hidden Trap

The 'Impossible Trinity' (Trilemma): A country cannot simultaneously have 1) A fixed foreign exchange rate, 2) Free capital movement (Full CAC), and 3) An independent monetary policy. India chooses 3 and a mix of 1 & 2. Expect a question on which of these India sacrifices during a rupee slide.

⚡ Elimination Cheat Code

Apply the 'Quarantine Logic'. The question asks for 'Immunity' (protection from infection).
- Statement 2 (More foreign banks) = More contact with infected global markets. (Eliminate)
- Statement 3 (Full Convertibility) = Removing the quarantine doors. (Eliminate)
- Statement 1 (Less borrowing) = Less dependency on outsiders. (Keep)
Result: Option A is the only logical survivor.

🔗 Mains Connection

Mains GS-3 (Economic Security): Link 'Capital Account Convertibility' to 'National Sovereignty'. Full CAC limits the RBI's ability to control the currency, making the economy vulnerable to speculative attacks (like the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis), effectively surrendering economic sovereignty to global markets.

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SIMILAR QUESTIONS

IAS · 2020 · Q59 Relevance score: 8.16

If another global financial crisis happens in the near future, which of the following actions/policies are most likely to give some immunity to India? 1. Not depending on short-term foreign borrowings 2. Opening up to more foreign banks 3. Maintaining full capital account convertibility Select the correct answer using the code given below:

CDS-II · 2011 · Q84 Relevance score: -0.77

A recent survey (by Bloomberg) shows that the USA has fallen behind emerging markets in Brazil, China and India as the preferred place to invest. Why is-it so ? 1. Unstable economic situation of the USA which the global investors feel not likely to improve in the near future. 2. Global investors are finding Brazil, China and India to be actually more amenable to foreign investment. Select the correct answer using the code given below :

IAS · 2017 · Q81 Relevance score: -2.86

What is/are the most likely advantages of implementing 'Goods and Services Tax (GST)' ? 1. It will replace multiple taxes collected by multiple authorities and will thus create a single market in India. 2. It will drastically reduce the 'Current Account Deficit' of India and will enable it to increase its foreign exchange reserves. 3. It will enormously increase the growth and size of economy of India and will enable it to overtake China in the near future. Select the correct answer using the code given below :

IAS · 2015 · Q22 Relevance score: -4.33

When the Reserve Bank of India reduces the Statutory Liquidity Ratio by 50 basis points, which of the following is likely to happen?

IAS · 2019 · Q65 Relevance score: -4.62

In the context of India, which of the following factors is/are contributor/contributors to reducing the risk of a currency crisis? 1. The foreign currency earnings of India's IT sector 2. Increasing the government expenditure 3. Remittances from Indians abroad Select the correct answer using the code given below.